Draft Strategy

A Deep-(ish) Dive Into Scott Fish Bowl Scoring

One of the most intriguing elements in the annual Scott Fish Bowl is the ever-changing scoring system. This year, Scott Fish made a point to completely overhaul last year’s scoring. Goodbye point per reception and point per carry, and hello point per first down!

So What Exactly is The Scoring?

Since we quickly established the obvious changes, we’ll take a look at the official scoring from the My Fantasy League (MFL) page.

SFB Scoring

There are a couple of misconceptions that I’ve heard from various outlets regarding the scoring, so let’s get through them quickly:

Despite showing as only five points per rushing and receiving touchdowns, they will actually score as six points (with the exception of the tight end position) because the NFL counts a TD as a first down.

The TE position, as noted on the SFB website, does accumulate 2.5 points per first down. There has been some confusion in the community regarding this,1 but scoring is cumulative and the 1.5 points shown at the bottom is added to the one point listed above.2 Here’s where the exception I mentioned above comes into play. TE touchdowns count for 7.5 points.

Weekly lineups include a superflex position and three additional flex positions, in addition to the normal one QB, two RB, three WR, and one TE starting positions. This means that weekly lineups will allow up to two QBs, six RBs, seven WR, or four TEs.

All point-per-carry scoring elements have been eliminated. Scoring has shifted closer to a fancy standard, or non-PPR, scoring league.

Top-100 Scoring

Relying simply on the available statistics on MFL, I’ve taken a quick look at the top 100 scorers from last year, based on their position. At first glance, and as widely reported, the WR position experiences diminished value compared to PPR scoring. TEs have an increased value due to the TE premium. And QBs score a lot, but there are quite a few of them from which to choose. But it wouldn’t be a complete RotoViz piece without a few visuals to help show the scoring effect.

SFBScoringChart

The graph shows the two-season average for each position from one to 32. QBs will always be the top scorers without significant modification, but, beyond the top six, the scoring decrease is gradual until the QB20 range. Positional advantage at the WR position will still be affected by the scoring, however, as the scoring decrease appears to be the most gradual of any of the positions.

Position2015 - # in Top 100 OverallTop Scoring Position in Overall Scorers2016 - # in Top 100 OverallTop Scoring Position in Overall Scorers
QB291301
RB2719253
WR33203233
TE11221329

Scott made a point of attempting to balance scoring, and he appears to have succeeded. As expected by the graph above, the gradual decrease in scoring for the WR position is depicted by the number within the top 100 overall. My biggest takeaway from this table is the noticeable difference between top-end scoring at RB and WR. After having a top 20 scorer in 2015, just behind the top RB scorer, the top WR position fell 13 spots behind the top TE scorer last year. With 2015 so heavily favoring WRs in most formats and 2016 favoring RBs heavily, the resulting outcome is likely somewhere in the middle.

Average Draft Position and Mock Draft

I won’t dive too deep into ADP and Mock Drafts because these drafts tend to be highly variable and the mock draft sample size tends to be too small for true conclusions, but I will point to a resource for finding the most up-to-date draft positions. RotoViz contributor and generally super helpful coder, Josh Hornsby (better known as FantasyADHD) has pulled ADP data from Scott Fish Bowl mocks. Using Josh’s site, we get the following current ADP:

PosPlayerTmADPADP SDMinMax
RBDavid JohnsonARI1.290.4612
RBEzekiel ElliottDAL2.741.5016
RBLe'Veon BellPIT2.800.9915
WRAntonio BrownPIT6.082.69313
QBAaron RodgersGBP6.873.95216
WROdell BeckhamNYG7.543.47317
WRMike EvansTBB9.405.68426
WRJulio JonesATL9.974.49529
RBMelvin GordonLAC10.823.55417
QBAndrew LuckIND11.584.08419
RBDevonta FreemanATL13.314.61625
RBLeSean McCoyBUF13.336.35427
QBTom BradyNEP13.605.73527
WRA.J. GreenCIN13.855.49831
QBDrew BreesNOS17.399.81642
RBTodd GurleyLAR19.065.841446
QBRussell WilsonSEA19.875.54734
RBJordan HowardCHI20.076.23934
RBJay AjayiMIA21.656.41944
WRMichael ThomasNOS22.1610.551145
TERob GronkowskiNEP22.334.91330
WRT.Y. HiltonIND23.1910.42846
RBDeMarco MurrayTEN24.435.461440
WRJordy NelsonGBP24.558.861453
WRAmari CooperOAK26.3915.34756
QBCam NewtonCAR27.267.131741
RBLeonard FournetteJAC27.746.291650
QBJameis WinstonTBB28.5310.331347
WRDez BryantDAL29.0813.801260
QBMatt RyanATL32.018.171348
QBMarcus MariotaTEN32.719.851951
QBDerek CarrOAK33.7910.401859
WRDeAndre HopkinsHOU33.8713.071063
TETravis KelceKCC35.4511.06954
RBLamar MillerHOU36.274.783050
WRDoug BaldwinSEA38.457.582756
WRAllen RobinsonJAC40.0812.132368
TEJordan ReedWAS41.529.542571
QBKirk CousinsWAS42.2012.142267
QBBen RoethlisbergerPIT43.029.612987
RBIsaiah CrowellCLE43.486.452455
RBJoe MixonCIN43.7514.031869
RBChristian McCaffreyCAR44.0612.382260
QBDak PrescottDAL46.4812.462260
WRSammy WatkinsBUF47.5617.772881
QBMatthew StaffordDET47.8411.042772
RBCarlos HydeSFO48.2910.763074

 

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  1. Largely because of MFL presentation.  (back)
  2. Note that the TE position is listed with the top and bottom groups, indicating that they receive all of the points shown.  (back)
By Matt Wispe | @WispeyTheKid | Archive

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