A Deep-(ish) Dive Into Scott Fish Bowl Scoring
One of the most intriguing elements in the annual Scott Fish Bowl is the ever-changing scoring system. This year, Scott Fish made a point to completely overhaul last year’s scoring. Goodbye point per reception and point per carry, and hello point per first down!
So What Exactly is The Scoring?
Since we quickly established the obvious changes, we’ll take a look at the official scoring from the My Fantasy League (MFL) page.
There are a couple of misconceptions that I’ve heard from various outlets regarding the scoring, so let’s get through them quickly:
Despite showing as only five points per rushing and receiving touchdowns, they will actually score as six points (with the exception of the tight end position) because the NFL counts a TD as a first down.
The TE position, as noted on the SFB website, does accumulate 2.5 points per first down. There has been some confusion in the community regarding this,1 but scoring is cumulative and the 1.5 points shown at the bottom is added to the one point listed above.2 Here’s where the exception I mentioned above comes into play. TE touchdowns count for 7.5 points.
Weekly lineups include a superflex position and three additional flex positions, in addition to the normal one QB, two RB, three WR, and one TE starting positions. This means that weekly lineups will allow up to two QBs, six RBs, seven WR, or four TEs.
All point-per-carry scoring elements have been eliminated. Scoring has shifted closer to a fancy standard, or non-PPR, scoring league.
Relying simply on the available statistics on MFL, I’ve taken a quick look at the top 100 scorers from last year, based on their position. At first glance, and as widely reported, the WR position experiences diminished value compared to PPR scoring. TEs have an increased value due to the TE premium. And QBs score a lot, but there are quite a few of them from which to choose. But it wouldn’t be a complete RotoViz piece without a few visuals to help show the scoring effect.
The graph shows the two-season average for each position from one to 32. QBs will always be the top scorers without significant modification, but, beyond the top six, the scoring decrease is gradual until the QB20 range. Positional advantage at the WR position will still be affected by the scoring, however, as the scoring decrease appears to be the most gradual of any of the positions.
|Position||2015 - # in Top 100 Overall||Top Scoring Position in Overall Scorers||2016 - # in Top 100 Overall||Top Scoring Position in Overall Scorers|
Scott made a point of attempting to balance scoring, and he appears to have succeeded. As expected by the graph above, the gradual decrease in scoring for the WR position is depicted by the number within the top 100 overall. My biggest takeaway from this table is the noticeable difference between top-end scoring at RB and WR. After having a top 20 scorer in 2015, just behind the top RB scorer, the top WR position fell 13 spots behind the top TE scorer last year. With 2015 so heavily favoring WRs in most formats and 2016 favoring RBs heavily, the resulting outcome is likely somewhere in the middle.
Average Draft Position and Mock Draft
I won’t dive too deep into ADP and Mock Drafts because these drafts tend to be highly variable and the mock draft sample size tends to be too small for true conclusions, but I will point to a resource for finding the most up-to-date draft positions. RotoViz contributor and generally super helpful coder, Josh Hornsby (better known as FantasyADHD) has pulled ADP data from Scott Fish Bowl mocks. Using Josh’s site, we get the following current ADP: