2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Pierre Garcon – WR 27
Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers.
Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.1 However there are things that they cannot capture that are important to consider.
Changes to team composition, injuries, coaching changes, and more can affect the accuracy of a pre-season model that is based purely on numbers. Finally, many models, including mine, do not give more than an expected value forecast for a player. Point estimates are great, but it’s also crucial to understand the range of outcomes.
In this series, I’m counting down the model’s top-36 wide receivers and publishing forecasts, along with a discussion of the other important factors the model doesn’t know about. Full projections will be released next month.