The Post-Draft 2017 QB Success Model

Earlier this offseason I created the new and improved version of my QB success model. The QB success model uses several machine learning techniques to find the important variables in predicting QB success and in the implementation of the success classification itself. I’ve updated the results with the actual draft positions of the QBs from the 2017 NFL draft. In the pre-draft version of my model, I projected the following draft positions. I’ve also highlighted their actual draft positions, so you can easily see the change. Draft position was one of the top two factors in predicting QB success, along with the QB’s final college year adjusted yards per attempt (AYA).
QB DPos.Est DPos
Deshaun Watson 5.6 12
Mitch Trubisky 15.5 2
DeShone Kizer 20.4 52
Pat Mahomes 68.6 10
Davis Webb 167.9 87
Nathan Peterman 189 171
We can see only Deshaun Watson and DeShone Kizer fell from my pre-draft projections, which means we should expect the two of them to drop from their pre-draft projection. Everyone else we should expect to increase. Well, that’s pretty much what happened, except I made a couple of tiny errors in my pre-draft model. I accidentally grabbed the yards per attempt instead of the adjusted yards per attempt of both Kizer and Pat Mahomes which will mitigate some of Kizer’s drop in success thanks to his draft position drop, and add a small boost to Mahomes already improved projection from his skyrocketing draft position. Here are the updated results for the 2017 QBs.1

Updated 2017 QB Success Model Results
  1. Note: this only includes QBs who have data for all the statistically significant predictors.  (back)

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