NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Talladega Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, which is at a restrictor plate much like this weekend’s NASCAR DFS Talladega slate.

This week NASCAR is at Talladega. As always I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS Talladega picks and machine learning projections, along with ownership percentage projections.

For all of your NASCAR DFS Talladega strategy needs, make sure to check out this week’s NASCAR episode of On the Daily DFS, where Matt Freedman and I go through restrictor plate strategy. Also, tune in for RotoViz Live (rotoviz.com/live) at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) on Sunday where I will answer all your NASCAR DFS Talladega questions using the Twitter hashtag #RVLive.

Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer is updated with the machine learning model projections for this week. The NASCAR Splits App will help you find statistics for each driver’s history at similar tracks.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the restrictor plate section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers.

Let’s get to the picks and projections for the NASCAR DFS Talladega slate.

NASCAR DFS Talladega Model Projections

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions lower than 22nd.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Ricky Stenhouse Jr113.613.724.8421.1372002.70%
Dale Earnhardt Jr215.7521.093.0721.3194005.10%
Brad Keselowski313.9722.372.926.101050017.20%
Matt Kenseth414.85144.0323.8291005.50%
Trevor Bayne514.783.874.0422.4371006.00%
Kevin Harvick610.339.773.1233.34930010.20%
Daniel Suarez713.52.373.8426.5178006.60%
Chase Elliott813.0719.11332.14920011.90%
Paul Menard914.261.585.9427.8573007.50%
Kyle Busch1010.2912.883.9638.62960013.40%
Denny Hamlin119.2614.683.4141.861020014.00%
Joey Logano1213.6413.933.8734.141070014.60%
Martin Truex Jr1312.386.052.4534.98990015.00%
Erik Jones1413.530.823.8933.0985009.50%
Kurt Busch1514.580.823.6231.8680009.50%
Ryan Blaney1610.311.522.541.01870016.40%
Clint Bowyer1713.560.895.1436.67820016.20%
Austin Dillon1815.110.784.9734.46770011.00%
Kasey Kahne1916.121.434.133.1775009.40%
Ryan Newman2016.311.074.8834.0974008.90%
Kyle Larson2112.344.592.3642.65900019.40%
Aric Almirola2216.20.684.135.82700013.00%
Jamie McMurray2313.060.673.5842.84760018.00%
Michael McDowell2415.610.454.0738.9359007.30%
Landon Cassill2519.030.463.9333.0261008.30%
Matt DiBenedetto2619.80.532.8331.9558002.80%
AJ Allmendinger2717.290.65.5439.34680013.60%
Ty Dillon2816.410.84.0541.41660015.80%
David Ragan2915.960.954.0643.35600012.80%
Jimmie Johnson3014.1418.822.4651.66970061.00%
Danica Patrick3117.170.734.0342.86630021.00%
Brendan Gaughan3219.680.425.4139.45560020.00%
Reed Sorenson3316.510.462.8945.54470020.90%
Chris Buescher3419.960.283.4239.86650022.20%
Elliott Sadler3519.232.054.9743.54670027.00%
Corey LaJoie3618.410.573.845.22530021.40%
Gray Gaulding3719.840.723.843.40570022.30%
Cole Whitt3821.890.513.1539.92520021.00%
Joey Gase3920.10.623.8444.88550022.40%
Jeffrey Earnhardt4022.790.345.2241.12490018.80%

NASCAR DFS Talladega Cash Game Picks

Jimmie Johnson ($9700) — Johnson is the most accomplished plate driver starting 30th or worse. Not much else needs to be said, honestly.

Elliott Sadler ($6700) — The veteran starts 35th, but has multiple Xfinity wins at Talladega and is in a Tommy Baldwin racing entry that will certainly be able to hang with the lead draft. Sadler’s average running position at Daytona earlier this year was a solid 19th place.

Chris Buescher ($6500) — Buescher isn’t the most accomplished plate driver by any means, but he does have a pair of second-place finishes at restrictor plate tracks in his Xfinity career. He’s in solid JTG Daugherty equipment, and starts 34th, which is advantageous.

Also in consideration — Cole Whitt, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Joey Gase, Danica Patrick, Reed Sorenson, Corey LaJoie … essentially the only driver in the back that I’m not using in cash is Gray Gaulding (first plate race ever).

It’s also okay to pick EXACTLY ONE of — Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Brad Keselowski … however both of these drivers are extremely risky cash game plays, and I won’t have either of them in my cash game lineups.

NASCAR DFS Talladega GPP Picks

Any driver starting 30th or worse — Seriously. The nature of Talladega means there will be multiple drivers starting in the 30s that end up in the winning lineup. Don’t count out someone like Joey Gase winding up in the winning lineup simply because it’s most likely somebody has to from the back. Gase has two top-1o finishes in the Xfinity series at plate races.

Landon Cassill ($6100) — Cassill is capable of putting up strong finishes at plate tracks, with five top-13 finishes at plate tracks in his last 13 attempts, and a 16th place at Daytona this year. It’s easier to hang around at Talladega than Daytona, so Cassill could be in for an even better finish here.

Joey Logano ($10700) — Logano is worth a flier, but if you choose him he should be either your only driver starting inside the top 15, or one of two at most in your lineup. Logano starts 12th, but has a strong car and team Penske has won four of the last five restrictor plate races, including three by Logano. The Fords have looked like then manufacturer to beat so far this weekend.

NASCAR DFS Talladega Fades

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7200) — Only one time in the past 24 Talladega races has the pole-sitter wound up with a top-six DraftKings score. I don’t see any way Stenhouse does so here.

Trevor Bayne ($7100) — Bayne will not only need to finish inside the top three, but he’ll also need to put up several laps led and some fastest laps. I just don’t see that happening with more accomplished plate racers likely to lead.

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive