Advice

NASCAR DFS Kansas Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After another GPP winning weekend for me, I’m excited for the NASCAR DFS Kansas slate — our first night race of the year. As usual I’ll give my picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Saturday night’s race.

For all of your NASCAR DFS Kansas strategy needs, make sure to check out this week’s NASCAR episode of On the Daily DFS, where Matt Freedman and I go through the impact of night racing and of pre-qualifying practice on this weekend’s race. Also, tune in for RotoViz Live (rotoviz.com/live) at 5:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday where I will answer all your NASCAR DFS Kansas questions using the Twitter hashtag #RVLive.

Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer is updated with the machine learning model projections for this week. The NASCAR Splits App will help you find a range of outcomes for each driver.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the large oval section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers.

Let’s get to the picks and projections for the NASCAR DFS Kansas slate.

NASCAR DFS Kansas Model Projections

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions lower than 30th.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Ryan Blaney114.7625.8515.0829.49800032.8%
Joey Logano27.0040.2317.7650.93950026.4%
Martin Truex Jr.36.5635.8822.1153.91970025.5%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.412.6716.662.0627.8574009.0%
Kyle Busch59.2226.4523.7649.05940025.3%
Kurt Busch613.671.771.0523.6282008.8%
Kevin Harvick79.2331.3619.4750.111040018.8%
Denny Hamlin712.755.742.4828.1788007.5%
Kyle Larson97.2624.0923.7556.37990028.2%
Chase Elliott107.176.3013.1047.78910017.4%
Austin Dillon1117.640.811.3320.6075008.1%
Jamie McMurray1210.550.993.2936.79810021.2%
Aric Almirola1317.451.060.8922.8164008.4%
Matt Kenseth1415.2013.736.4734.26840012.0%
Daniel Suarez1519.120.730.6821.2873006.0%
Trevor Bayne1615.641.130.8929.4671008.2%
Brad Keselowski176.2625.4221.8765.761070032.9%
Paul Menard1819.720.131.3123.2566006.7%
Ryan Newman1915.540.961.6933.0176007.2%
Chris Buescher2021.980.190.7120.4565004.4%
AJ Allmendinger2121.140.241.3923.4862005.1%
Ty Dillon2220.320.261.0925.9867008.7%
Matt DiBenedetto2326.970.120.4513.3258005.5%
Danica Patrick2422.780.111.3423.1469009.6%
Gray Gaulding2528.940.081.0011.6349002.0%
Cole Whitt2628.190.190.0713.7160001.3%
Jeffrey Earnhardt2730.440.080.0610.1851001.1%
Derrike Cope2830.610.070.0710.8345001.0%
Jimmie Johnson2911.174.2515.6359.551010051.2%
Clint Bowyer3015.400.212.3544.43860044.6%
Kasey Kahne3115.270.101.6345.31780045.1%
Erik Jones3216.020.111.8944.93770047.9%
Dale Earnhardt Jr.3318.250.924.6143.03830038.1%
David Ragan3427.820.090.5822.6754002.8%
Michael McDowell3524.990.160.2829.2057008.0%
Landon Cassill3626.180.190.5127.93520010.4%
Reed Sorenson3731.520.120.2518.1146001.0%
Corey LaJoie3830.960.060.1220.1655001.0%
Timmy Hill3931.670.080.0819.7147000.8%

NASCAR DFS Kansas Cash Game Picks

Ryan Blaney ($8000) — Blaney not only qualified on the pole, but had the fastest 20-lap average in final practice, which was made in race trim. Blaney is also very good on restarts — he passed Kevin Harvick on both the preferred and non-preferred grooves at Texas on restarts. According to motorsportsanalytics.com, Blaney is eighth in retention rate on restarts from the preferred groove and sixth in places gained per restart from the preferred groove. With pseudo-teammate Joey Logano starting next to him, I expect the two will be lined up 1-2 after the initial start. The biggest question for Blaney is, will his car be set up just as well for the night as it was for happy hour in the heat of the day?

Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne, Erik Jones, Dale Earnhardt Jr. — These five drivers are all in the upper half of the field this year, but start 29th to 33rd. That means place differential galore. It really comes down to roster construction on which of these five drivers you use, but I can guarantee I’ll be using four of them. It’s not possible to use all five if you want to roster a dominator, so you’ll have to make your choices.

NASCAR DFS Kansas GPP Picks

Landon Cassill ($5200) — Cassill starts 36th thanks to missing qualifying and he’s at a measly $5200 this week. Rostering him will allow you to roster three of the more expensive drivers starting in the back mentioned above in the cash game sectoin, along with two potential dominators. Risk Level: Low-Medium. The main risk is if he just doesn’t come very far forward, but he starts so far back and costs so little that if he even finishes dead last he won’t hurt much.

Brad Keselowski ($10,700) — Keselowski is priced the highest of all drivers this week, but will probably be under-owned thanks to Jimmie Johnson starting 29th, and Logano and Martin Truex Jr. being potential dominators at $9500+ price tags. Keselowski has the third-highest driver rating at the large ovals this year, so expect him to come forward. Risk Level: Low-Medium. Keselowski comes in with low risk…mainly from having a problem or crash during the race. But if he keeps it clean, he should finish strong.

Martin Truex, Jr ($9500) Truex starts third and boasts the best driver rating on large ovals this year. He was top five in both single lap and 10-lap average, so there’s quite a good chance he dominates a portion of this race. Risk Level: Medium. With all the quality that qualified in the back, you’re really banking on Truex dominating a portion of this race if you use him in GPPs. If he doesn’t, he won’t be in the winning lineup.

Jamie McMurray ($8100) — McMurray is a bit of a hunch play here, but there are numbers to back it up too. McMurray has the fifth best driver rating at large ovals this year, and he starts 12th, which means there is room to move forward and pick up a solid finish with a small bit of place differential. McMurray’s team over-adjusted in qualifying, but he thinks his race car is pretty strong. Risk Level: Medium-High. Tis isn’t a play you want to over-expose yourself to, but certainly being overweight compared to the projected ownership projections above is not a horrible play — just a risky one with a high payoff if it hits.

NASCAR DFS Kansas Fades

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7400) — Last week’s race winner qualified fourth and with Truex, Blaney, and Logano all ahead of him, I don’t see much room for him to dominate. He’ll probably need a top five finish to be in the winning lineup, but Stenhouse only has the 15th best driver rating at large ovals this year. Risk Level: Low.

Denny Hamlin ($8800) — Hamlin is priced too high for his large oval performance this year. He also starts seventh, which means he’ll need a top-three finish to have a shot at being in the winning lineup. Risk Level: Low-Medium.

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
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