MFL10 Theory Part 2: The Strategy Of Picking Players, And Which Ones I Am Overexposed To
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14Team Mocker explains why he uses one roster construction for all MFL10s, and why he is overexposed to a basket of players. (Full disclosure: I played 40 MFL10s last season, won four of them, and came in second in five of them, for an ROI of 12.5%. I also played in two, 12-team, best-ball dynasty leagues, where I finished in first and third place. In 2015, I played 19 MFL10s, won one of them, and came in second in two of them. I also played in a 10-team MFL10 style league, coming in first place, and the same two 12-team, best-ball dynasty leagues, where I finished second and fourth. This can all be looked up, I play in every league under the same account, with the username @14TeamMocker. Every player-specific call I made in an article in the last two seasons is also accounted for in this review from the spring.) Part one of this article, discussing the nuance and difficulty of analyzing how to approach My Fantasy League’s public best-ball format, known as “MFL10”, can be found by clicking here. This part of the article will focus on which players I am overexposed to through my first 15 (of an eventual 45) drafts using my preferred roster construction and strategy. ROUND 2: LAMAR MILLER (ADP 3.02) With four shares of Lamar Miller, I’m reaching for him just a bit with an average pick of 2.12, two spots earlier than ADP. Obviously if you get A.J. Green at the end of the first round, you would either have to reach substantially for Miller at the top of the second, or have him fall to you at the end of the third. I also have five combined shares of DeMarco Murray and Todd Gurley, and have no issue drafting Devonta Freeman, LeSean McCoy, or Melvin Gordon near their ADPs. Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi give me pause, but David Johnson did last year, too, so… yeah. Miller’s usage across all game flow situations, his gaudy contract, and Houston’s strong defense, coupled with their weak division, all make me confident in his potential to be one of, if not the, most productive workhorses this season. Overall RB1 does not seem that far-fetched, even with a mobile, rookie QB (neither is good for an RB), and the addition of D’Onta Foreman being much more formidable competition than the diminutive Tyler Ervin, and abysmally terrible Alfred Blue. ROUND 3: SAMMY WATKINS (ADP 3.06) OR KEENAN ALLEN (ADP 3.09) I have seven combined shares of Sammy Watkins and Keenan Allen, and really am running to the podium for either in the middle-to-end of the third round.