Can Talent Overcome Circumstances? Jay Ajayi’s 2017 Fantasy Prospects

Going into the 2016 season, me and my RotoViz Report podcast co-host Anthony Amico were on an island, given our love for Jay Ajayi as a value in the middle rounds. After disappointing early in 2016 by not seeing significant touches through the first four weeks, Ajayi broke out in a big way, averaging 16.1 PPR points per game from week five on and helping to lead his team to the playoffs for the first time in eight years. Even with a fantastic 2016 season, however, I was highly skeptical about Ajayi’s middle-of-the-second round ADP in early 2017 drafts. After only one partial season of production, is Ajayi worth that price? Let’s take a look Ajayi’s 2016 season and see if that cost is justified. Let’s begin by looking at Ajayi’s 2016 season. I created a system that attempts to parse out individual statistical aspects that may have inflated or mischaracterized a running back’s overall season. I’m going to jump right into the stats, as the headings provide a signpost for the visuals, and the labels are fairly intuitive. However, if you find anything to be unclear at any time, I’ve included an extensive legend at the end of the article. If you have any questions, jump down there at any time. The general format compares the player to his team and to the rest of the league in a variety of categories and uses green (best), yellow (second), and red (third) to color code where each group ranked in the analysis.

Success Rate and Yards Per Carry By Direction

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By Heith Krueger | @HeithK | Archive