Advice

Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers – May 7th

The world has gone on turning, the seas have kept on churning, dreams have gone on coming true or falling flat, and MFL10 rosters are still being filled. Here we take a look at players who’ve seen their ADP’s drop in the four-week period between April 7th and May 7th. There may have been a notable event held in Philadelphia during this period; maybe that has had some impact on these players fortunes. Maybe not.

The position predominantly featured in this article is that ever-volatile beast, the running back. Four of the five examples concern tailbacks, with one of them breaking the mold and focusing on TWO players. Both play for the same team, and can probably attribute their current plight to one player in particular. But more of them later.

REX BURKHEAD

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Going off the board at RB39 throughout the month of April, Rex Burkhead signing with the Patriots seemed to promise not only untold fantasy wealth to his owners, but a massive disintegration of the hopes and dreams of Dion Lewis and his owners. The fact that Burkhead became the highest paid Patriots RB since 2010 seemed to indicate that he would be a key part of the offense. But around the 18th of April, Burkhead saw his stock begin to drop, and he began going later and later in drafts. He’s currently going off the board in the 11th round, after another 43 RBs have already been snapped up. So what could have happened on or around the 18th of April that would have such a knock on Burkhead? Well, the Patriots did sign Bills RB Mike Gillislee to an offer sheet, but is that really that big of a deal? Yes, yes it is. According to Patspulpit.com

Football Outsiders rated Gillislee as the #1 running back by DVOA at +45.0% and #1 in success rate at 66%. He’s was incredibly efficient in 2016. He also posted a +20.9% DVOA in 2015 on 47 attempts. Over the past two seasons, Gillislee has carried the ball 148 times for 844 yards and 11 touchdowns. That represents 5.70 yards per carry and that’s exceptional production over a non-fluky number of carries.

The most reliable piece of the Patriots from a fantasy standpoint is that, outside of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, it’s hard to rely on anyone on a weekly basis. While I dare say that Burkhead will have a role, it would also be true that Gillislee will have a role. So will James White, and probably Lewis too. Burkhead is still a bit too rich for my blood at his substantially reduced ADP, but his fall could eventually bring him into my price range.

JERICK MCKINNON

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After watching the Vikings cut Adrian Peterson, say goodbye to Matt Asiata, and then welcome Latavius Murray before losing him to injury, Jerick McKinnon looked set to be given a good crack at earning significant playing time in 2017. About bloody time, the majority of RotoViz writers declared. McKinnon owns a 4.2 yards per carry average in his career and also showed some passing game chops last season. He finished with 43 receptions, nearly doubling his career tally of 48, good for 14th among RBs. It was time!

And then on April 29th, the Vikings drafted Dalvin Cook with the 41st pick in the draft. Regardless of The Latavius signing, Cook figures to earn a prominent role early on with the Vikings. But maybe McKinnon could steal some receiving work? After all, he averages 6.2 yards per reception. Yeah, about that…Cook averaged 11.8. McKinnon’s Vikings deal is up at the end of the 2017 season. When he lands somewhere else, it may be time to get excited about him again. Until then? Steer clear.

T.J. YELDON

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T.J. Yeldon is a member of that not-particularly-exclusive fraternity in the NFL, namely an Alabama skill player who failed to live up to pre-draft billing. After a 740 yard, 4.1 YPC season in 2015, Yeldon regressed to 465 yards at a pedestrian 3.6 yards per clip. Still, it looked like Yeldon was seen as worthy of a dart throw by Best Ball players, with an ADP around 160 in early April (approximately the 14th round). Then the rumours linking the Jaguars with LSU back Leonard Fournette began in earnest. Yeldon began to drop about a week before the draft and has continued to fall after the Jaguars spent the 4th overall pick on Fournette. With Fournette set to play Ezekiel Elliott in the AFC South remake of the Dallas Cowboys, the best Yeldon can hope for is the odd carry in relief and some third down receiving work. But quite frankly he can’t drop far enough for me.

CAMERON BRATE

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After a 57-660-8 season in 2016, the Buccaneers ensured that Cameron Brate would stick around in 2017 by signing him to his Exclusive Rights Free Agency tender. Brate’s performance was good for TE7 in PPR last season, with no TE surpassing his eight touchdowns (Hunter Henry also scored eight for the Chargers). The thoughts of Mike Evans occupying most of opposition attention, coupled with the addition of DeSean Jackson, made many think that Brate could own the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. This may still be the strategy, but after the Buccaneers arrested O.J. Howard‘s unexpected slide by selecting him with the 19th pick in the draft, it may not be Brate’s job to hold. There is still hope for Brate, however, even if Howard surpasses him as the TE1 in Tampa Bay (Trevor Sikkema seems to think he will on the latest Rotoworld Podcast with Josh Norris). The Buccaneers were one of three teams to use two TEs on 31 percent of their offensive snaps last season, and while Brate may be an upgrade on Brate, Brate is also an upgrade on Brandon Myers and Luke Stocker. His touchdown upside means he is currently a bargain, and I would not be above threats of violence towards pets and relatives to ensure you snare him.

JEREMY HILL (not to mention Gio Bernard)

HILL BERNARD

Remember Jeremy Hill‘s rookie season, when he plundered 1,124 rushing yards and nine TDs in only eight starts, with a healthy 5.1 yards per carry average? In the two seasons since this year-one breakout, Hill has garnered the 10th-most rushing attempts among RBs, but only the 17th most yards at a pretty ordinary 3.7 yards per amble. He’s just not that good at football, but he continually teases fantasy owners by finding the end zone with surprising regularity. Only three RBs have more rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons. Hill, and his stablemate Gio Bernard, looked set for another campaign of stringing MFL10 players along, with both enjoying fairly steady ADP rates in proportion to each other. But then, clearly tiring of having one back who they hoped could carry the load, and another who could be a versatile weapon in the passing game, the Bengals went and drafted a player in Joe Mixon who offers the upside of both. Hill and Bernard have both seen their stock drop, while Mixon has gone in quite a different direction.

mixon gio hill

With an ADP of RB37, Hill figures to be the biggest loser from the Mixon selection. Bernard still offers PPR appeal behind the lead back in Mixon, while Hill will probably need a Mixon injury to force his way back into the lineup. I know I said Hill was the biggest loser from the last few weeks, but lets be honest, there are bigger losers. Namely the 331 people who drafted him between April and May, no doubt hoping for big things from the big man. Never mind folks.

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By Neil Dutton | @ndutton13 | Archive

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