Visualizing WR Market Share And Age: The Elite Prospects
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Over the last several years, Jon Moore has done a tremendous job advancing our understanding of the intersection of age and market share of receiving production. Today, I’ve enlisted Jim Kloet to help present these visualizations for the 2017 class. In this post, we’re focusing on Tier One receiver prospects as reflected in the RotoViz Scouting Index (RSI). – Shawn Siegele
How important is market share and age?From 2006 to 2014, second- and third-round hits1 at WR averaged a 37 percent market share of receiving yards (msYD) in their final college seasons, 29 percent msYD for their careers, and a breakout age of 20.3.2 First-round misses averaged a 32 percent final msYD, 25 percent career msYD, and a 21.4 breakout age. It’s not that exceptions don’t exist, it’s that chasing them will leave you with a losing approach over time.
- Defined as a player who scored 200 PPR points in one of his first three NFL seasons, roughly WR2 status. (back)
- Defined as the first year a player reached a 30 percent combined yardage and TD market share. Jon Moore uses 20 percent msYD in his definition of breakout age and has found that 19-year-old college breakouts hit the NFL WR2 tier at twice the rate and a year earlier than later breakouts. (back)