Dynasty

Visualizing WR Market Share And Age: The Elite Prospects

Over the last several years, Jon Moore has done a tremendous job advancing our understanding of the intersection of age and market share of receiving production. Today, I’ve enlisted Jim Kloet to help present these visualizations for the 2017 class. In this post, we’re focusing on Tier One receiver prospects as reflected in the RotoViz Scouting Index (RSI). – Shawn Siegele

How important is market share and age?

From 2006 to 2014, second- and third-round hits1 at WR averaged a 37 percent market share of receiving yards (msYD) in their final college seasons, 29 percent msYD for their careers, and a breakout age of 20.3.2 First-round misses averaged a 32 percent final msYD, 25 percent career msYD, and a 21.4 breakout age. It’s not that exceptions don’t exist, it’s that chasing them will leave you with a losing approach over time. 
  1. Defined as a player who scored 200 PPR points in one of his first three NFL seasons, roughly WR2 status.  (back)
  2. Defined as the first year a player reached a 30 percent combined yardage and TD market share. Jon Moore uses 20 percent msYD in his definition of breakout age and has found that 19-year-old college breakouts hit the NFL WR2 tier at twice the rate and a year earlier than later breakouts.  (back)

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By Jim Kloet | @jimkloet | Archive

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  1. Jason says:

    Ford got a new head coach who liked to spread the ball out a little more which help explain away his drop in final season MS. His production and on-field metrics are all very strong and he looks like a twitchy kind of athlete (he's not horribly unathletic). Very excited to see where he lands. Same with JuJu.

  2. @FF_Contrarian - Does Rotoviz have a database of breakout ages that subscribers can access? I don't see "Breakout" in the Box Score Scout. I have been using another site for this data (which purports to use a 20% DR cutoff) but reading the above article again prompted me to do some digging and I have totally lost confidence in that other source now. Thanks very much. Jesse

  3. We don't but we'll try to add age and breakout age as we continue to adjust and improve apps going forward.

    You can also test the 20% share for BOA. Jon Moore has done some research using that, which fits with what I believe are the Player Profiler numbers. (And I think some of Jon's research in that area is very promising.)

  4. Thanks Shawn. I'm not sure what you mean by BOA.

  5. Jason says:

    Break out age is what he means

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