Visualizing WR Market Share And Age: How to Find Crazy Production Late

Over the last several years, Jon Moore has done a tremendous job advancing our understanding of the intersection of age and market share receiving production. Today, I’ve enlisted Jim Kloet to help present these visualizations for the 2017 class. In this post, we’re focusing on the super sleepers from the final two tiers in the RotoViz Scouting Index. – Shawn Siegele

How important is market share and age?

In Part 1, we talked about the large gaps in age-adjusted production between first-round busts and second-round hits. You’ll be surprised how much older and less productive those first-round misses were. Those lessons quickly came into play as we saw the charts for Mike Williams and John Ross lagged behind not just Corey Davis but also JuJu Smith-Schuster and Isaiah Ford. In Part 2, we got a look at the buzz-heavy crowd and explained why Chris Godwin and Zay Jones make better targets than Carlos Henderson or Taywan Taylor. In Part 3, we examined the cluster of prospects still buoyed by media scouts and found a few interesting names in Josh Malone and Josh Ferguson. We also eliminated land mines like Artavis Scott and Ryan Switzer. Today, we’re diving into the final two tiers to look for the best 2017 sleepers. Late round picks are obviously long shots for NFL relevance, but they make the best stories when they do hit.1 And we have some great candidates in these last two tiers. These visualizations will help you look past the familiar names to some lesser known players who created more fireworks this year than a couple of the likely first-round picks.
  1. Both the real life stories, and the stories you get to tell your friends about how you selected Antonio Brown or Stefon Diggs with that fourth-round rookie pick they said was worth less than the roster spot.  (back)

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By Jim Kloet | @jimkloet | Archive

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