Dynasty

Tight End Prospecting: 2017 Draft Class

Perhaps the biggest story of the NFL combine was the athleticism of the 2017 tight end draft class. The median dash time was 4.64 seconds for the field of 15 participants, and six of these 15 prospects leaped 35 inches or higher. With this kind of athleticism and the college production to match, at least one lesser-known TE is likely to be a great bargain in your dynasty formats. The TE position is historically difficult for rookies. Over the last 10 years, the top rookie TE averaged a 43-462-3.5 line, which amounts to 67 standard fantasy points (111 PPR). With underwhelming players like John Carlson, Jace Amaro, and Tim Wright on this list, hoping to hit the top rookie TEs doesn’t seem a viable short-term strategy. Still, the 2017 TE class is deep enough to consider a shrewd, early investment for a long-term payout. With TEs like Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, and Jimmy Graham already in their 30s, the time is ripe for rookies to evolve into NFL stars. While the consensus is that O.J. Howard or David Njoku will be stars, you’ll see that Jim Cobern’s (@Jimetrics) TE database, combined with my logistic regression model, helps us identify three players with nearly equivalent NFL success profiles. The 30 percent success rate of the underlying  model suggests that at least one of these three players is expected to be a long-term NFL starter (start 64 or more NFL games in their career).

Applying the Model

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By Phil Watkins | @Advantalytics | Archive

2 Comments

  1. May 12, 2017 at 6:36 pm —

    Update: At the time of publication, Adam Shaheen’s DOB was 10/24/1993 according to Zach Whitman. Since publication, it has been corrected to 10/24/1994. The difference of a year makes his normalized age 0.2202, which corresponds to a 33.3% chance of logging 64 or more NFL starts. This is still a healthy “PASS” according to the model.

  2. July 30, 2017 at 10:45 pm —

    After fellow Rotovizian John Lapinski pointed out some erroneous bench values, I went back to double check the data that I was provided. Since Jim Cobern updates his numbers to include pro-day performance, Michael Roberts twenty-one reps at his pro-day suggest he should also be included in the “Pass” category, with a greater than 15% chance at making 64 NFL starts or more.

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