No, You’re Wrong: The Report Card For Every Offseason Call Mocker Made In 2016
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This article revisits every call 14Team Mocker made in the 2016 offseason, right, wrong, or ugly. This is my third offseason writing for Rotoviz. In the first two offseasons, I wrote 106 different articles, which contained 84 different specific draft recommendations for the redraft format of fantasy football. Comparing their ADP at the time the article was written against the player’s overall finish, 47 of those 84 were right, 32 were wrong, and five were neither. Judging by points-per-game, 47 of those 84 were right, 31 were wrong, and six were neither. Transparency really is that simple. Because of the way our brains work, it’s important to look back at what was predicted, why it was predicted, and not judge predictions based solely on results. Even if you’re not a writer, jot down some of your predictions at different times of the year, the reasoning why, and look back at your process with an open mind about what worked, what didn’t, whether it was bad process or bad results, and why. The following article will be a straightforward recapping of results; but, if interested, this piece has links to the articles with every recommendation from 2016, detailing process. For 2015 articles, the beginning of my author page will have links to every article published. For a look back at results of dynasty recommendations from the last offseason, this piece from January details that. Win rate from MFL10s is also included, to try and contextualize the impact of predictions being correct. For example, buying LeSean McCoy at RB10 and him finishing RB4 was a lot more significant than buying Golden Tate at WR20 and having him finish WR17. The win rates give a rough quantification reflecting that difference, but also capture when something was not particularly meaningful (such as drafting Stevie Johnson and having him not make a game appearance). Win Rates for every player in 2016 MFL10s can be found here.