NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Bristol Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After a week off, NASCAR is back for Bristol baby! As always I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS Bristol picks and machine learning projections. Also, we have all new features.

This week we introduce the NASCAR Sim Score App which lets you compare current drivers at Bristol to similar past drivers at Bristol and other similar tracks. For a better primer on the Sim Scores, see the primer article. Also, we have ownership projections this week.

For all of your NASCAR DFS Bristol strategy needs, make sure to check out this week’s NASCAR episode of On the Daily DFS, where Matt Freedman and I go through all the crazy things that are affect strategy this week at Bristol. also, be sure to tune in for RotoViz Live (rotoviz.com/live) at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) on Sunday where I will answer all your NASCAR DFS Bristol questions using the Twitter hashtag #RVLive.

I’m going to continue to put my GPP picks and fades into risk tiers. I tend to have a riskier tolerance, and since I know that’s not for everyone, I’ll am providing a risk level with the GPP picks and fades.

Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer is updated with the machine learning model projections for this week. The NASCAR Splits App will help you find statistics for each driver’s history at similar tracks.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the steep track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers. At Texas it’s necessary to find at least one race dominator for cash, and probably two to three for GPPs.

Let’s get to the picks and projections for the NASCAR DFS Bristol slate.

NASCAR DFS Bristol Model and Ownership Projections

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 28th. The DKPts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

DriverStartFinishLLFLDKPtsSalaryPredOwn
Kyle Larson112.4752.9225.546.041010038.8%
Chase Elliott210.9859.824.951.44940019.0%
Martin Truex Jr.310.9556.4928.7953.62950017.6%
Brad Keselowski411.9652.4126.3750.371030017.2%
Joey Logano510.4644.6926.9952.751000018.2%
Ryan Blaney612.816.1512.134.582009.1%
Kyle Busch710.4156.7932.5560.651060046.7%
Jamie McMurray815.784.5913.8128.4980006.3%
Clint Bowyer916.026.267.5226.2884008.4%
Kevin Harvick1010.9135.6826.5554.381040022.8%
Jimmie Johnson1110.6538.5421.8254.25970024.5%
Trevor Bayne1214.420.155.7230.0568005.7%
Ryan Newman1312.441.726.3135.775008.7%
Erik Jones1412.79914.2541.79780019.8%
Kurt Busch1512.579.4810.6441.56770014.2%
Denny Hamlin1611.769.1416.6147.08880015.0%
Kasey Kahne1713.4217.8610.3843.81760021.5%
Aric Almirola1818.830.233.1525.9766005.1%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.1915.931.265.0934710020.2%
Dale Earnhardt Jr.2011.836.5114.5549.23860017.7%
Austin Dillon2113.150.896.7542.29730015.6%
Matt Kenseth2212.017.5916.1851.96910046.0%
Daniel Suarez2315.358.066.4841.56700023.5%
Ty Dillon2417.290.053.5335.263009.4%
AJ Allmendinger2514.130.084.943.22650019.1%
Paul Menard2615.160.726.7643.25640043.9%
Chris Buescher2719.40.074.1134.26670010.2%
Michael McDowell2820.070.082.1232.9455007.3%
Danica Patrick2919.620.082.5535.06620013.7%
Landon Cassill3020.240.261.4734.32530012.0%
Cole Whitt3125.590.291.6124.759001.2%
Matt DiBenedetto3223.730.151.5929.38570019.1%
David Ragan3322.920.112.0232.261007.3%
Reed Sorenson3427.380.40.9723.8351001.0%
Corey LaJoie3523.520.11.3932.6945005.9%
Gray Gaulding3624.240.131.1232.1147003.2%
Jeffrey Earnhardt3727.110.480.9127.3648001.7%
Timmy Hill3827.360.420.9827.8849001.8%
Derrike Cope3927.230.360.9829.1246001.7%

NASCAR DFS Bristol Cash Game Picks

Kyle Larson ($10,100) — Larson is exceptional at the steep tracks, especially Bristol, and gets to start on the pole thanks to the rainout in qualifying. Despite the bottom groove being the preferred groove, it’s quite likely he dominates at least some portion of this race.

Kyle Busch ($10,600) Kyle Busch had the best single-lap and 20-lap speed in final practice. Like the other Kyle, Bristol is one of Kyle Busch’s best tracks. Look or him to be in contention for the win, barring a problem.

Matt Kenseth ($9100) — Matt Kenseth starts 22nd thanks to the washout in qualifying. Kenseth has a top-3 driver rating at Bristol over the last three years in completed races, and has four career wins here. Despite his relatively slow practice speeds, he has the savvy and know-how to put up a finish better than his practice times.

Paul Menard ($6400) — Menard might be a surprise here, but he was very quick in final practice, posting the 15th best single lap speed and ninth best 10-consecutive lap average. He also generally doesn’t wreck himself, so he’ll likely have to get caught up in somebody else’s wreck for his day to end early.

NASCAR DFS Bristol GPP Picks

Kasey Kahne ($7600) — Kahne starts 17th, which leaves plenty of room for place differential if he can pull of a strong finish. He’s won here in the past (2013), and posted the fastest 10-lap average in final practice to go along with the third best single lap speed in final practice. In non-DNF races, the Sim Score App likes his ceiling around a fifth place finish. Risk Level: Low-Medium

KahneBristolComps

 

Erik Jones ($7800) Jones has a win at Bristol in the Xfinity series, and put in a strong performance in final practice. His fifth place 10-lap average shows the strength of his car. He might go a bit under-owned with no history at the top level at Bristol in addition to his awkward 14th place starting position. Risk: Medium due to his elevated starting position and rookie status

Daniel Suarez ($6400) — Another rookie like Jones, Suarez has three top-six finishes in four races at Bristol. Like teammate Kyle Busch, his car is super quick, with the second best single lap and sixth best 10-lap average in final practice  Risk Level: Low-Medium

NASCAR DFS Bristol Fades

Brad Keselowski ($10,300) — Keselowski becomes a fade because he was the worst of the top tier drivers in final practice. He had the slowest single lap and 10-lap speeds among the top seven drivers in starting position, and also has a worse average track history than Busch and teammate Logano starting near him. Risk Level: Medium-High if he gets out front and leads, then this will be a big bust. If you are risk adverse, I recommend still having some Keselowsk in your portfolio.

Jamie McMurray ($8000) McMurray starts eighth thanks to the rainout, and practice extremely slowly in final practice, with both the single and 10-lap speeds outside the top 20. He has a strong track history here, so that’s the only risk.  Risk Level: Low-Medium

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive