Draft Strategy

MFL10 Optimization Part 2: Solving the Onesie Positions

In part one of this project, we followed the evolution of a fictional 2016 MFL10 draft from an inefficient mess into a league full of optimized rosters. That first step provided us with some general guidelines for roster construction. Now we dig a bit deeper, in search of more detailed and more actionable conclusions. We’ve already learned, for example, that we want to roster either two or three quarterbacks.  But when is two better than three? The following analysis addresses these questions for the “onesie” positions: Quarterback, Tight End and Defense. For these positional breakdowns, I have expanded the scope and depth of our optimization data. While in the initial analysis, observations were based on the results of 200 “rounds” of optimization and used only 2016 ADP and player data; going forward we will refer to the results of three more thoroughly optimized drafts. Below are the positional allocations for optimized drafts using 2014, 2015 and 2016 data, with each having gone through 1,000 rounds of trades. 1000rounds2014 1000rounds2015 1000rounds2016 These tables, and the picks underlying them, provide us with a roster construction roadmap.  Let’s see what they tell us about each position.

QUARTERBACK

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By Mike Beers | @beerswater | Archive

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  1. It would be interesting seeing the results of this type of analysis spread out over various points of the MFL draft season.

    I've noticed that I tend to go with 2 defenses earlier in the season when there is more uncertainty surrounding the players themselves. Once FA and the draft hit, I feel more confident with my individual player picks that I'm more likely to grab a third defense.

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