Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers – April 19th
We are more than halfway through the month of April, and with the NFL draft mere days away, the act of Best Ball roster construction continues at a pace. With free agency essentially at an end, the next time the NFL landscape will truly shift will be after the bunting has been cleared from the park in Philadelphia, when Mr. Irrelevant hears his name called.
But that’s the future, our topic here is the past. Let’s take a look back at the last month’s MFL10 data, and see four players who have suddenly become unpopular.
For this article, I am looking at MFL10 ADP data, using the RotoViz Best Ball ADP App, for the period March 18th to April 19th. Of the prominent fallers, we have two Hall of Fame candidates, a sophomore wide receiver, and one player who was probably hoping to have a bit more of the ball himself in 2017. But your time is short, and the hour is late. Shall we press on?
Rotoworld has featured the same number of articles written by yours truly since March 19th as they have blurbs regarding Jamaal Charles – precisely zero1. His last known visit with any team was on March 16th, when his date with the Seahawks ended with little more than a peck on the cheek and a promise to “stay in touch”. Between March 18th and 25th, Charles was the 42nd RB going off the boards in MFL10s, at an ADP of 126. He now sits at RB49, going a full round later at 138. The workhorse RB jobs seem to have all been taken around the NFL, leaving Charles best hope at latching on somewhere as a third down pass specialist. If he is fully fit, there is no doubt he could carry out these duties manfully. But for some reason, it appears NFL teams are not overly keen on adding 30 year old RBs who’ve played eight games in the last two seasons. How odd. Charles may find some work after the draft, and if so is certainly worth a late-round punt in MFL10s. But a player without a team going ahead of players with roles which make them perfect for best ball like Kenny Stills (ADP 142) and Ted Ginn (152)? You’re going to have to explain that to me.
As of right now, Jalen Richard is probably second on the Raiders RB depth chart behind DeAndre Washington after Latavius Murray moved on in free agency. This was probably interesting only to people who care passionately about depth charts and how they should be believed at all costs, as the two were likely to be used in almost equal measure. In 2016, Richard’s 491 rushing yards came at 5.9 yards per carry, as he saw just over five carries per game. Washington’s 6.2 totes per outing brought him 467 yards at 5.4 YPC clip. A devastating 1-2 punch was ready to be unleashed upon the NFL, with MFL10 players taking Richard as the 55th RB off the board. Then, like a sonic boom, Marshawn Lynch decided that he wanted to play for the Raiders, and Richard’s hopes were dashed completely. Well, I say completely. His positional ADP has only dropped to RB57, and it doesn’t appear that MFL10 players have completely bought into the idea that Lynch can still produce at a high enough level to relegate Richard and Washington completely.
Oh hang on.
Richard, and Washington, should still be involved in the ground and passing game in 2017. But if Lynch returns as the 2014 model, and not the lumbering carthorse that we last saw in 2015,2 then it’s hard to think that you’re getting a bargain taking Richard where you currently are.
After seeing the only NFL team he has ever played for sign Latavius Murray to “replace”, Adrian Peterson went from a top the Vikings depth chart in mid March to something approaching football limbo by mid April. A rumored visit to the Packers never materialized, an unsolicited compliment from the GM of the Lions led to nothing concrete, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers almost went out of their way to distance themselves from the former MVP. Peterson did have a visit with the Patriots, nothing unusual in that this year, as the Patriots have made it a point of interest to check in on every single free agent RB on the planet. He also visited the Saints, but like Charles there is no firm indicator as to where he will/could play in 2017. Some have speculated that his wage demands are putting teams off, while others point to the fact he turned 32 on March 21st. These both have played a factor, as well the fact that he averaged 1.9 yards per carry last season, offers practically nothing in the passing game and even when healthy has never looked as effective running out of the shotgun. Like Charles, his situation may become clearer once the draft is in the rear view mirror, but it is unlikely that he will threaten RB2 airspace this season. He still has a way to fall in MFL10 before being worth an investment in my opinion.
Of the four fallers we have studied in this article, the cooling in interest towards Josh Doctson initially surprised me the most. The Redskins have said goodbye to DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon this offseason, replacing them with just Terrelle Pryor and Brian Quick. Doctson was a first-round pick in 2016, and despite missing most of the season, he was quite a high end prospect. He drew favourable comps with DeAndre Hopkins and Roddy White on the RotoViz Box Score Scout app, as you can see below.
You can see why I was bit surprised. But then, going back through the last month, I remembered that in early April Redskins coach Jay Gruden announced that Doctson was being gradually worked back into the fold. The date of this announcement seems to coincide with the major dip in the ADP of Doctson. His current position MFL10 ADP of WR51 makes him an intriguing prospect, but only if he can prove that he is healthy. With Garcon and Jackson out of the door, the Redskins passing attack is suddenly missing 214 targets from 2015. It is not impossible to think that Doctson could challenge for WR2 numbers in an offense still looking for a decent running game, and one that could yet again become dependent on the arm of Kirk Cousins. I’d probably buy Doctson at this price.
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- Although they did feature a tremendous article by my fellow ‘Viz scribe Jacob Rickrode on Dynasty Rookie Pick Hit Rates. After…I SAID AFTER…you’ve read this, you should check that out (back)
- In the interests of full disclosure, I’d have donated my not significant personal fortune to having an RB “lumber” for the Eagles the way Lynch did in 2015, but I digress (back)