Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers – April 4
“The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall.” – Vince Lombardi
With the dawn of April, MFL10 drafts are still progressing nicely, with more and more drafts reaching their conclusion with each passing day. This article is not to look at those who have risen, but rather those who are falling. We’ll look at five players who’ve experienced a decline in their average draft position over the last two weeks. First up, a surprising faller at quarterback.
(ADP data for period March 18th-April 1st)
Russell Wilson, by his own high standards, experienced something of a down season in 2016. He finished outside of the top ten in terms of fantasy points for the first time in his career, although I’m not sure a finish of QB11 is quite cause for concern.
The major perceived reason for his “failure” was his lack of impact as a runner. His rushing yards fell for the second consecutive season, as he failed to hit 400 rushing yards for the first time. But he also tossed a career high 11 interceptions, and his touchdown rate of 3.8 percent was a career low. He was hampered by injuries and not really helped by the overall poor quality of the Seahawks ground game, not to mention the tooth fairy-like performance of the offensive line.1.
Wilson seems to be an obvious bounce-back candidate, which is why his drop in ADP is a little surprising. Of course, QBs should be taken late, so I’m not against this drop per se, but I can’t find any significant reason as to why he began to fall on March 25th. Unless drafters think Wilson is going to be hampered by the change in the “leaper” rule, he still offers high-end QB1 upside as he continues to fall.
Looks like MFL10 players knew that Tony Romo and the NFL were not long for each other. Although Romo could have been a gentleman about this and announced his decision before I started this article. Thanks Tone, I owe you one.
Back in mid March, former first-round draft pick Kevin White was going off the board as the 45th wide receiver, a still somewhat bizarrely high spot for a player who has achieved seven eighths of three quarters of absolutely bugger all in the NFL.
After missing his entire rookie season of 2015, he played just four times in 2016, catching 19 passes for 187 scoreless yards at an average per reception of 9.8 yards. Yet for some reason he was being taken ahead of Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin and Adam Thielen, among others. Garcon is set to reprise his one-time productive role of Kyle Shanahan’s X receiver, Maclin is an intriguing bounce-back candidate after an injury ravaged 2016, and Thielen is probably the best WR on the Vikings roster.2
In the last two weeks, White has dropped to WR51, although he is still ahead of players with more to offer a fantasy team. Players like Mike Wallace and Kenny Stills are boom or bust merchants, and make for intriguing best ball dart throws, but the intriguing situation Ted Ginn finds himself in with the Saints makes him someone I’d certainly be taking ahead of White.
White has free agent acquisitions Kendall Wright (a long time RotoViz favourite) and Markus Wheaton, as well as Eddie Royal, Cameron Meredith, and Josh Bellamy among other competitors in the Bears wide receiver rotation.3 Hitching your wagon to any player in a Mike Glennon-led Bears offense not named Jordan Howard seems a hard road to walk for me.
After self-appointing as a “co-No. 2” with Sterling Shepard after he arrived with the Giants, Marshall was more or less declaring that he was offering WR2 services at a WR3 price. Back in mid-March, he was the 30th WR going off the board, whereas two weeks later he had dropped to WR32. Hardly a seismic drop, and his ADP has only changed by roughly seven spots. But it is interesting that neither of the co-2s are demanding attention and that both have experienced a relative fall in the last fortnight.
Marshall’s current ADP is something I can still get behind, especially if the Giants make no better moves to improve their ground game than by signing a pass-catching RB like Shaun Draughn. The Giants will be passing and passing some more in 2017. Assuming Eli Manning isn’t hitting a Peyton Manning-like wall, the New York passing game could be fruitful for all fantasy owners, not just those playing in MFL10 formats.
Not since Greg Bell scored 15 touchdowns for the Los Angeles Rams in 1989, only to wind up across the city with the Raiders in 1990, has the NFL rushing touchdown leader not returned to that team the next season. LeGarrette Blount is trying his utmost to end this particular streak. Since free agency began, Blount has seen the Patriots sign the ultimate four-down weapon Rex Burkhead4 and grab a cup of coffee with Adrian Peterson. All the while, Blount has garnered precious little interest on the open market. The last time Rotoworld even published a blurb on him was back on March 7th, and that indicated that he would not be back in New England. MFL10 players are seemingly down on him as a prospect heading into the season, but quite pleased with Burkhead.
If Blount doesn’t re-sign with the Patriots, I’d have to see where he was going before I committed any MFL10 draft capital his way. If he were to end up somewhere as a primary goal line back, and not much else, he could have best-ball appeal. But if he lands in a committee somewhere, I’d need to see how that team carried out their red zone operations before making a call. It’s not as if he’s going to offer anything in PPR, after all.