2017 Draft Reaction: Mitchell Trubisky Goes to the Chicago Bears

RotoViz has teamed up with TwoQBs to provide post-draft analysis of the 2017 quarterback class. Two QBs is devoted to 2QB and Superflex fantasy leagues and provides player evaluations and advice, rankings, and strategy. Giana Pacinelli’s work can be found here. With the second overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft, the Chicago Bears selected Mitchell Trubisky. The surprise of the draft came early in the night as the Bears moved up just one spot to take the University of North Carolina quarterback. It wasn’t where he was taken that was so surprising, but rather what the Bears gave up in order to get him, and who they already have on their roster, that made the move so shocking. The Bears swapped picks with the 49ers, despite having signed Mike Glennon to a three-year, $45-million contract just last month, in addition to a one-year deal with Mark Sanchez. They also gave up their third round (67 overall), fourth round (111 overall) and a 2018 third round pick for the opportunity to snag Trubisky, who joins Lawrence Taylor and Julius Peppers as the highest drafted Tar Heels in NFL history. From a fantasy perspective, Trubisky’s arrival hurts the veteran options. His presence, and what the Bears gave up for him, signify that Glennon is not their long-term, or potential short-term, starter. The competition and uncertainty on who will get the starting role will affect both players’ ADP. We’ll get to more of that in a minute. But first, we take a comprehensive look at your new Chicago Bears QB, Mitchell Trubisky.

Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina, 6-3, 209

Name Last.AYA Cone Vel Weight Height Shuttle Hand Age Film
Mitch Trubisky 9.1 6.87 55 222 6021 4.25 9.5 22 82
With so much hype around Trubisky as the top quarterback in the draft, it’s no surprise he was picked as early as he was. While we can’t forget that he only started one season for the Tar Heels, we can acknowledge the reasons the Bears chose to trade up for him – a 68.9 percent completion percentage, 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt, 270 rushing yards, and 288 passing yards per game. In that solo season as a starter, Trubisky set UNC single-season records for passing yards (4,056) and touchdown passes (30).
Year Class G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2014 SO 9 42 78 53.8 459 5.9 4.9 5 4 114.2
2015 SO 9 40 47 85.1 555 11.8 14.4 6 0 226.4
2016 JR 13 304 447 68 3748 8.4 9.1 30 6 157.9
Career 386 572 67.5 4762 8.3 9 41 10 157.6
In fact, when compared to QBs in years past, only three quarterbacks were able to match Trubisky’s numbers: Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, and Paxton Lynch. On paper, Trubisky is extremely efficient, throwing for 30 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 2016, and completing almost 70 percent of his passes. But with only one full season as a starter under his belt, and a competent starting quarterback already available, what kind of value can he provide the Bears? Ultimately, if you believe a guy has the potential to be your franchise QB, you go after him. And that’s exactly what the Bears did. While Trubisky’s 2017 outlook may seem hazy, Glennon’s contract with the Bears is essentially a one-year “prove-it” deal. At whichever point he doesn’t deliver, the Bears plan to have their franchise QB waiting on the sidelines. Trubisky ranked 10th overall, and second amongst QBs, in our final RotoViz Scouting Index. He also came in second amongst RotoViz analysts in our pre-draft rookie rankings, right behind Patrick Mahomes, the second quarterback taken in the draft. In RotoViz’s Model, which includes QBs who have been in the league for less than four years, you’ll see Trubisky ranked third, with a 73.8% success rating.
QB Probability of Success
Carson Wentz 92.50%
Paxton Lynch 82.70%
Mitch Trubisky 73.80%
Teddy Bridgewater 68.10%
DeShone Kizer 43.90%
E.J. Manuel 43.50%
Jared Goff 38.60%
Pat Mahomes 27.40%
Brett Hundley 27.30%
Jimmy Garoppolo 25.30%
The model values Trubisky’s 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt and his high film grade of 82. Comparatively, Carson Wentz is first on this list, despite having just 23 career starts under his belt at North Dakota State University prior to the 2016 NFL Draft. Also, note that the model assumed a draft position of 15.5. When the model is updated to account for his better-than-expected draft position, his success probability score will also improve.1

Player Outlook

  1. As it will for Patrick Mahomes, who was also drafted much earlier than expected.  (back)

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By Giana Pacinelli | @GIANAAAA | Archive