Advice

Early Round Landmines – Melvin Gordon

The early rounds of 2017 MFL10 drafts are a chilling place to be. The dread begins to creep in late in the first round, once we leave the land of the elite eight, and doesn’t really ease up until the noose begins to loosen around round four. The top eight seem set in stone. Untitledzzz Fresh off the warm and fuzzy feeling of drafting a Mike Evans or Odell Beckham, things quickly deteriorate as the slow realization dawns that we have to spend a late-first or second-round pick choosing between a lot of guys with a lot of question marks. A busted early-round pick can destroy your draft in a hurry. It’s an immense amount of capital, and getting it right is crucial. I predict picking your way through these potential early-round landmines will lead to a a lot of lost sleep this summer. Or is that just me? I’m going to take a look at a number of players the first few rounds who cause me cold sweats, and I’ll attempt to answer the question – is the fear justified? Next up, Melvin Gordon.  

SPLASH GORDON

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By Cort Smith | @cortnall | Archive

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  1. As someone who just traded the 1.04 for Melvin this gives me chills (and not the good kind). Here's a couple things I would say in response:
    - Gordon had excellent PFF running grades, suggesting his low YPC was more a function of the offensive line than him not being good at running. PFF grades aren't the be-all and end-all, but they do provide useful context I think.
    - Gordon also had very good receiving and pass-blocking grades. So while his receiving work may have been unexpected, it would be surprising if it did not continue.

    Also think about what the Chargers did this offseason:
    - Signed Okung, who can't pass pro but is a very good run blocker.
    - Signed Anthony Lynn, who loves to run. Gordon's team MS could go down and his raw number of touches stay the same or even go up.

    Also to remember:
    - Chargers invested a ton of draft capital in him and will want to feed him the rock (although granted, it was the old coaching staff).
    - He has the 'pedigree'. And if you look at his time at Wisconsin, it took him a solid year+ before he was any good. Some guys just have a steeper learning curve.

    I would also point out that, while yes 12TD in 14 games is likely not sustainable, it's not a crazy number for a lead back in a good offence.

    Not saying he's not a landmine - pretty much any RB is - but there's lots of positives here too I think.

    Now a selfish question: do people think getting him for the 1.04 was good value?

  2. Gordon was extremely impressive as a receiver last year as RotoDoc found he was the second-best RB (behind Freeman) in terms of depth-adjusted efficiency and one of the top players overall. He might also be faster than his combine times suggested. We know he's agile, especially for his size.

    The Dynasty ADP app has him at No. 18 (since mid-March) and Fournette at No. 20, so his value looks to be slightly above the 1.01.

    I agree with Cort about his MFL10 ADP (any non-Johnson or Bell RB is tough at that level), but I also think you got a great value in your trade.

  3. Pretty cool when your favorite fantasy football writer comments on your comment like that. I told my girlfriend - she was less impressed.

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