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The RotoViz Glossary: Antifragility To Zero RB – The A Through Z Of Being A Fantasy Football Nerd

This glossary is an index of frequently used RotoViz terminology.

If you’d like a further explanation of any of the terms, or a definition for something not covered below, feel free to ask the author of the article that mentions it, or any of the site’s editors, either in the comments of this glossary, an article, or on Twitter.

50/50

There are two ways this term is used that have nothing to do with each other.

The first refers to a “50/50 ball,” used to describe a pass that is thrown in a way that the receiver and the defender will be in roughly the same spot when the ball arrives, giving the receiver a “50 percent” chance at catching it.

The second refers to a format of daily fantasy sports, where roughly half the participants in a large group win the same amount of money, which is roughly double the entry fee into the contest, regardless of their finish among the winners. (See: Daily Fantasy Sports, Grand Prize Pools, and Cash Games.)

ADJUSTED (NET) YARDS PER ATTEMPT (A(N)Y/A)

Pro Football Reference credits the invention of Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) to “a book called The Hidden Game of Football, by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn.”

It is a stat that is meant to quickly capture how efficient a quarterback (or the person receiving) is per throwing attempt (or target), and is calculated using the formula: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts).

The RotoViz AYA App  provides the stat for any quarterback, wide receiver, or tight end, going back to the year 2000. It also has a location graph feature, which breaks AY/A down by part of the field, as well as showing the percentage of attempts (or targets) that a player has in each part of the field.

AYA demo

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), as well as Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Plus (ANY/A+), are more detailed versions of this stat that incorporate sacks: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown) – sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). 

AVERAGE DEPTH OF TARGET (aDOT)

A simple stat, related to Air Yards, that measures the total distance the ball travels in the air (divided by a player’s number of targets). (See: Air Yards.)

AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION (ADP)

ADP refers to fantasy drafts, and is often used in conjunction to a reference of where the drafts are taking place (e.g. ESPN ADP) or the scoring format of the league (e.g. PPR ADP). This is the measure of the draft pick being used on a certain player. It is often the starting point of determining a player’s value in an open marketplace.

We have two apps that measure ADP, one for Dynasty drafts (both rookie and startup), and one for My Fantasy League’s public best-ball leagues, known as “MFL10s”. (See: MFL10s.)

AIR YARDS

Related to aDOT, “Air Yards” means what it sounds like: the number of yards that a ball travels through the air when passed. If a player’s total air yards are divided by the number of targets, you would get the same number as aDOT. Josh Hermsmeyer wrote the introductory article to this concept, and a subsequent in-season weekly series.

You can look up Air Yards using the Air Yards Screener.

ANCHORING EFFECT

The anchoring effect is one of a number of cognitive biases that are discussed in their relation to fantasy football, and more broadly, decision making. A cognitive bias is “a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion.”1

For further reading:

Cognitive Bias In Fantasy Football: The Anchoring Effect

ANTIFRAGILITY

One of three terms used in the headline of Shawn Siegele’s groundbreaking-thesis that has come to define our site. Siegele defines it using Nicholas Taleb’s definition in the book The Black Swan:

Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure. Yet in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile.

Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.

Related: Why I Bet on Trump To Win $75,000  (by Jonathan Bales)

ARBITRAGE

An investing term, the concept of arbitrage was one of they very first things Fantasy Douche talked about when he began the site.

“the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset to profit from a difference in the price. It is a trade that profits by exploiting the price differences of identical or similar financial instruments on different markets or in different forms.”2

Simply, it is the buying (drafting/trading for) of an undervalued asset (player) that appears identical to an overpriced asset, which you simultaneously are either selling, or avoiding buying.

ASCH EXPERIMENT

The Asch Conformity Experiment (or Asch Paradigm) is a psychology experiment conducted by gestalt psychologist Solomon Asch in 1951. Asch found that humans will say things they know to be wrong, or be tricked into believing said things are correct, in order to agree with a larger group of people.

For a detailed definition, and how it relates to fantasy football, see:

Fantasy Asch Experiment: What Is Jonathan Stewart?

The Asch Conformity Test, Thinking for Yourself, and Fading Boogie & Steph (by Matthew Freedman, for FantasyLabs)

BEST BALL

A scoring system that sets a fantasy team’s optimal lineup after NFL games have taken place based on how many points were scored by the players owned, instead of the traditional pre-game “start/sit” lineup making method. Best ball leagues often do not have playoffs, including My Fantasy League’s public best-ball leagues, known as “MFL10s”. (See: MFL10s.)

BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE (BPA)

A term used to describe a draft strategy that is essentially a non-strategy, where players are chosen based on an individual’s perception of who is “the best player available.” This implies disregarding roster construction, league format/rules, and the position of the “best player.”

Highly susceptible to biases, the notion that a fantasy drafter can identify the “best player available” yet to be drafted, however they happen to be defining “best”, is fallacious. It assumes an inordinate ability to predict future performance.

For further reading:

Best Player Available is a Sham and You Should Beware Those Who Peddle It

BOX SCORE SCOUT

“Box Score Scout” pokes fun at and embraces what is meant to be an insult. The term insinuates that conclusions are being drawn exclusively from looking at a box score (or statistics in general). It is the opposite of observational scouting with game film, which produces “narratives,” another word for an opinion or theory that can’t be proven or unproven with numbers. (See: Narratives.)

We firmly believe that only looking at numbers allows for an elimination of biases that form around opinions or things that we see with our eyes, such as game film or highlights.

We named an app “Box Score Scout.” It identifies athletic and production similarities of college prospects, in order to more accurately identify which prospects they compare to, regardless of said prospect’s eventual NFL career.

For further reading:

Prospect Comparables Are Out of Control – And We’ve Done Our Part to Make it That Way

BREAKOUT AGE

There are several statistics that RotoViz and RotoViz emeriti invented, or that combine different statistics into one cleaner, easier to digest and understand number.

A signature RotoViz concept, breakout age refers to the age a player was when they had their first (very) successful college season.

For further reading:

Three Holy Grail Components To Wide Receiver Evaluation

Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, And Why Breakout Age Is The Skeleton Key

What’s This Then? Dominator Rating and Breakout Age

CASH (GAMES)

A format of daily fantasy sports contests, wherein contestants are matched up one-on-one, or in a group where (roughly) the top performing half (or third) win the same amount of money, regardless of their finish within the group of winners. (See: Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS).)

COMBINE

The NFL combine is an invitation-based event historically taking place in February, where players eligible for the upcoming NFL draft have their size and athleticism measured, as well as being asked to display certain football-related skills.

For a full list of, and links to, our articles about the combine, see: The Definitive Combine Primer.

CONTRARIAN

A nickname adopted by Shawn Siegele, “contrarian” (derived from “contrary”) refers to a way of thinking that goes against popularly held assertions.

In fantasy football, there is very little benefit to being right about something that every one also thinks; whereas, if you are right about something that nobody else thinks, you profit mightily because you are getting the benefit of being right when no one else is (think Devonta Freeman in 2015).

CORRELATION

More specific than the broad use of the word in the English language, “correlation” used in fantasy football is normally in the statistical sense, meaning: “a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables.”3

The specific kind of correlation you’ll see referenced in our articles (like RotoViz 101: Which NFL Team Stats Are Predictive (And Which Aren’t)?), is something called r-squared.

R-squared is “a statistical measure of how close the data are to the fitted regression line. It is also known as the coefficient of determination, or the coefficient of multiple determination for multiple regression. Zero percent indicates that the model explains none of the variability of the response data around its mean.”4 (See: Regression (to the mean).)

DAILY FANTASY SPORTS (DFS)

Daily fantasy sports is a version of fantasy that takes place over a single day, or, in the case of football, several days in the same week.

The two most common types of daily fantasy games are Grand Prize Pools (GPP) and head-t0-head or 50/50s (“cash”). (See: 50/50, Draftkings, Fanduel, Grand Prize Pools, and Cash (Games).)

DECONSTRUCTING (The Betting Lines)

In every NFL game, there is a point spread that indicates which team is favored to win and by how many points. There is also a number set as the “over/under,” which is the total amount of points scored in the game by both teams combined.

This means that there is a specific number of points each team is expected to score. Jonathan Bales explains  the usefulness for fantasy.

Ben Gretch takes that one step further in a weekly series during the season, breaking down the expectations into specific positional scoring, as implied by the betting lines, and applying it to fantasy decision-making.

DOMINATOR RATING

There are several statistics that RotoViz and RotoViz emeriti invented, or that combine different statistics into one cleaner, easier to digest and understand number.

Dominator rating is a signature RotoViz concept, used to measure the market share of receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards, that a player earned of his college’s offense.

For further reading:

What’s This Then? Dominator Rating and Breakout Age

DRAFTKINGS

DraftKings is the most popular host site for daily fantasy sports.

The key difference between DraftKings and it’s largest rival, FanDuel, is that DraftKings uses full point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, and has three point bonuses for certain statistical thresholds, like 300 passing yards or 100 rushing or receiving yards. FanDuel uses half-PPR scoring, and does not have yardage bonuses. (See: Daily Fantasy Sports, FanDuel, and PPR.)

DraftKings and/or FanDuel may not be available in your state of residence because of local laws. Typically abbreviated DK.

DYNASTY

Dynasty is a fantasy football format wherein team owners keep your entire roster at the end of the season. The opposite of the more popular “redraft” format. (See: Redraft.)

The rules for acquiring free agents and rookies in between seasons varies from league-to-league.

We recommend hosting your Dynasty league on My Fantasy League.

For a more complicated version of Dynasty that also uses a salary cap system, we recommend Reality Sports Online.

EXPECTED VALUE

Expected Value is “a concept in probability that is used to describe the average outcome of a given scenario when the scenario hinges on an uncertain, probabilistic event.”5 In fantasy football, team owners seek to make moves (drafting, trading, signing, or waiving players) that will have a positive (or +EV) outcome more often than not. In real football, coaches attempt to make play calls and execute game strategy that will also produce positive outcomes more often than not. Much research suggests that common strategies such as punting from certain field positions, kicking field goals instead of going for a first-down/touchdown, or running instead of passing often have negative expected values.

FANDUEL

FanDuel is the second most popular host site for daily fantasy sports, and the main alternative to DraftKings. Typically abbreviated FD, not to be confused with Fantasy Douche. (See: Daily Fantasy Sports, Draftkings.)

FANTASY POINTS OVER EXPECTATION (FPOE)

There are several statistics that RotoViz and RotoViz emeriti invented, or that combine different statistics into one cleaner, easier to digest and understand number.

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) is something Fantasy Douche defines as:

Fantasy Points Over Expectation simply takes the actual fantasy points that a player scored and subtracts out the Expected Points. 

EP is calculated using the average fantasy point value of a target with the same line of scrimmage. ruFPOEPA = Rushing Fantasy Points Over Expectation Per Attempt. reFPOEPT = Receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation Per Target. Expected Points are also calculated on a per position basis.

FPOE going back to the year 2000 can be found in the RotoViz Screener App.

FOX

“Foxes and hedgehogs” is a term used to describe two kinds of prognosticators, and the style used to form predictions.

The modern term comes from a 1953 book by Isaiah Berlin, and is originally from an Ancient Greek poet named Archilochus, who wrote “a fox knows many things, but a hedgehog one important thing.”

Popularized anew by Nate Silver’s 2012 book The Signal And The Noise, and the source for FiveThirtyEight’s logo of a fox, the terms have come to describe two different types of predictions and predictors, as opposed to Berlin’s original meaning, describing two types of paradigms.

We at RotoViz model ourselves in the same vein as Silver, as foxes, which consider broad possibilities and outcomes, identifying what makes certain outcomes more likely to happen than others. We discourage “hedgehogging.” (See: Hedgehogs.)

For further reading:

The NFL, the CIA, and Using Data Driven Models to Make Good Predictions

FREAK SCORES

There are several statistics that RotoViz and RotoViz emeriti invented, or that combine different statistics into one cleaner, easier to digest and understand number.

Freak Score is our scaled metric that uses height, weight, and speed to give an approximation of the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects.

For further reading:

Freak Scores For The 2017 Wide Receivers

The Freak Score App

GAME FLOW

Game Flow refers to whether a team is winning (positive game flow), losing (negative game flow), or tied (neutral game flow). Positive game flow traditionally means more rushing and less passing, while negative game flow implies the opposite. The concept of game flow is incorporated into the RotoViz Screener and Projection Machine, as well as our Weekly Projections apps. In these apps we use “average scoring margin” as a measure of game flow.

GARBAGE TIME

Garbage time refers to plays that happen after the outcome of a game has become clear, usually referring to the passing offense of the team losing. Passing stats are more easily accumulated during these periods of games, and pass attempts, especially, balloon.

GUARANTEED PRIZE POOLS (GPPs)

A format of daily fantasy sports, where there are a few big winners from what is usually a very large group of entrants.

The most well known GPP is DraftKings’ “Millionaire Maker,” often referred to as “The Milly.” The structure of that contest is usually some variation of tens of thousands of entries at $27 each, with one overall winner receiving $1 million, and several smaller winners.

A general rule of GPPs is you have to do exceptionally well to win any kind of substantial return on your entry fee. This is generally seen as the opposite of 50/50s or “cash games” where being just above average wins as much money as being exceptional. (See: Daily Fantasy Sports, 50/50s, and Cash (Games).)

HEDGEHOG

The opposite of a fox, a hedgehog makes what are considered less careful, more reckless, predictions. Because of the way human brains and memory works, hedgehogs are often lauded for wildly unlikely predictions that came true, and largely forgiven for the ones that did not. Over time, this causes them to be seen as more accurate or capable or predicting the future than they actually are. (See: Foxes.)

For further reading:

The NFL, the CIA, and Using Data Driven Models to Make Good Predictions

HINDSIGHT BIAS

Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon that skews our evaluation of our decision making process after knowing the outcome of what was an unpredictable event. It is similar to but not the same as outcome bias.

From a 2012 study by the Association of Psychological Science:

“There are three levels of hindsight bias that stack on top of each other, from basic memory processes up to higher-level inference and belief.

  1. memory distortion, involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment (“I said it would happen”).
  2.  centers on our belief that the event was inevitable (“It had to happen”).
  3.  foreseeability, involves the belief that we personally could have foreseen the event (“I knew it would happen”).

Essentially, the way our brains work make it difficult to accurately and honestly remember the way we thought about something when it was still unknown or unpredictable. This concept fits under the umbrella of an overused cliche “process over results,” which discourages us from letting results dictate whether a process was sound. (See: Results (over process) and Outcome Bias.)

HYPERFRAGILE

Hyperfragile is the antonym to antifragile, and used most prominently on RotoViz to describe a strategy Mike Beers invented for playing MFL10s.

At its core, hyperfragile is used to describe a roster construction strategy where if things go wrong, you won’t be able to recover, but if they go right, you will be extremely likely to win.

This is part of a broader concept about benefitting from chaos, which is another way of describing how unpredictable any future event is to forecast, but particularly the NFL. (See: Antifragility.)

IMPLIED TOTAL

Every NFL game has a point spread, which is the amount of points a team is favored to win by; and, a point total or “over/under,” which is the number of points expected to be scored in the game by both teams combined.

When these numbers are combined, it creates an exact score, or the “implied total.” For example: Team A is favored by three points with a point total of 45, meaning the exact score is implied to be 24 – 21. These two numbers represent “the implied total” that each team is projected to score.

INJURED RESERVE

Injured reserve is a designation NFL teams can make that retains their rights to a player’s contract, without that player counting against their 53-man roster.

Beginning in 2016, each team can activate one player from injured reserve if that player was on the 53-man active roster, when rosters became final (first week of September). The player may be activated no fewer than eight games after the player was placed on injured reserve.

LOGICAL FALLACY

Formal logic is a field of study that examines the relationships between arguments, such as “if A, then B.”

A logical fallacy is something that breaks the rules of standard logic, and is therefore invalid and wrong.

There are several kinds of logical fallacies, many of which are used when discussing decision making in fantasy football. A common fallacy is the “red herring” where the subject is changed, or something unrelated is brought into a discussion, in a way implying that disconnected things affect each other.

For example, in prospect comparison, using two players who went to the same school 20 years apart with different coaching staffs, that aren’t similar athletically, to try and say why one will fail or succeed because the other player did.

Another example would be arguing against something like a sixth round draft pick’s chances of success, citing Tom Brady’s success after being drafted in the sixth round.

MACHINE LEARNING

Machine learning is a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that provides computers with the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed. Machine learning focuses on the development of computer programs that can change when exposed to new data.

The process of machine learning is similar to that of data mining. Both systems search through data to look for patterns. However, instead of extracting data for human comprehension, as is the case in data mining applications, machine learning uses that data to detect patterns in data and adjust program actions accordingly.6

Machine learning is often utilized in the projection models developed by RotoDoc, Josh Hermsmeyer, and others.

MARKET SHARE

Market share is a broad term referring to the percentage of a total team number that belongs to a single player. It is most often used in a fantasy context talking about targets. For example: “Mike Evans had a 31 percent team target market share in 2016.” This means that 31 percent of the Buccaneers pass attempts went to Evans in the 2016 season.

In RotoViz apps, market share is used for targets, yards, and touchdowns, of both professional and college teams. Abbreviations are in the form of “MSRETD” meaning Market Share Receiving Touchdowns.

MFL10

MFL10s are public leagues hosted on My Fantasy League (MFL) that cost $10 (10) to enter. They use a best ball scoring format, with roster sizes of 20, and are what is known as a “draftmaster” format, meaning that the only way to acquire players is via the draft. There is no free agency, trading, or waivers. Entry into these leagues is available from the end of February through just prior to Week 1 kickoff. (See: Best Ball.)

For further reading:

The RotoViz MFL10 Guide: 5 Things You Need to Know

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables. (It is) named after the gambling hot spot in Monaco, since chance and random outcomes are central to the modeling technique, much as they are to games like roulette, dice and slot machines.7

For further reading:

Monte Carlo Strategies To Win 2016 MFL10s – Part I

Monte Carlo Strategies To Win 2016 MFL10s – Part II

MOSS’D

A tribute to the greatest wide receiver to ever play the game, Moss’d or Mossed is an adjective, using Randy Moss‘ last name as a verb, referring to a wide receiver jumping over a defensive player to catch the ball.

Randy Moss

NARRATIVES

An umbrella term used to describe tenuous arguments formulated around reasoning that is based on story telling, which may or may not be fact-based or involve evidence particularly correlated with the presumed outcome.

Some of the most common examples are “revenge games” (the idea a player outperforms against an old team because he’s extra motivated), or “contract year” (the idea that players outperform in the last year of their contract because they know they have to try harder in order to get paid the next season).

OUTCOME BIAS

Similar to hindsight bias, outcome bias is a term used to describe how our brains cause us to inaccurately judge the merit or validity of a decision based on an outcome, despite the outcome having been unknown at the time the decision was made. (See: Hindsight Bias.)

From “Outcome Bias In Decision Making”, University of Pennsylvania (1988):

A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty. A decision is therefore a bet, and evaluating it as good or not must depend on the stakes and the odds, not on the outcome.

For example, we may think a decision is bad if we believe that bad outcomes were highly probable, but outcome information may also affect our evaluation even if the probability of an outcome is known.

PHENOM INDEX

There are several statistics that RotoViz and RotoViz emeriti invented, or that combine different statistics into one cleaner, easier to digest and understand number.

The Phenom Index is a predictive stat for college wide receivers invented by Jon Moore that combines Dominator Rating and Age: (See: Dominator Rating and Breakout Age.)

To create the Phenom Index I standardized both final season Dominator Rating and final season Age and then divided the two (DRindex/AGEindex).

For further reading:

The Phenom Index: A Breakthrough In Wide Receiver Evaluation For The NFL Draft

PHYSICALLY UNABLE TO PERFORM LIST (PUP)

The PUP list is a designation teams use to retain an injured player without putting him on the more drastic injured reserve list, but to the same end of having the player not count toward the 90-player, 75-player, or 53-player roster limit (depending on the time of year). (See: Injured Reserve.)

There are two types of PUP designations, preseason and regular season.

Preseason PUP designation means “a player on the PUP list at the start of training camp is forbidden from practicing until cleared by a team’s medical personnel — the player can still attend team meetings and work out at the team facility — but once cleared the player can return to the field immediately. Any player who practices with a team during training camp is not eligible to be placed on the PUP list, and the team has to either cut him or put the player on injured reserve.”

Regular season PUP designation means “If a player is still on the PUP list when the regular season begins, he is not eligible to play in the team’s first six games but does not count against a team’s 53-man roster. After six games, the team has three weeks to decide whether the player will return to the practice field as part of the 53-man roster and then — if the player returns to practice — another three weeks to decide whether to put him on injured reserve. The clock starts on that second time frame the day the player returns to practice.” 8

PRIMACY BIAS

Primacy bias, or the primacy effect, is a term used to describe the way human brains remember the first thing in a series of events, which has more of an impact on decision making than things that come after. (See: Recency Bias)

Recency Primacy Bias

University of Rochester professor of neuroscience Dr. Renee Miller explained in a series of articles:

“The Primacy Effect is the phenomenon of the first instance carrying the most weight and therefore being recalled most readily.

In football, that means that what happens this weekend will stay with you in your memory throughout the season. The Primacy Effect is pervasive; we have “love at first sight”, “you don’t get a second chance to make a first impression”, and so on. It doesn’t mean that these initial perceptions are correct, just that they are lasting.”

For further reading:

Attention, Emotion, and the Primacy Effect in Fantasy Football Week 1

Revisiting the Primacy Effect

Revisiting the Primacy Effect Part II

PRO DAY

Pro days are events similar to the combine, but held at an individual school for just their own players. The same measurements and tests are done as at the combine, though if a player has numbers from both, the combine is generally seen as more accurate.

Pro days are particularly important for players who were either unable to perform at the combine, or were not invited.

R

“R is a language and environment for statistical computing and graphics… R provides a wide variety of statistical (linear and nonlinear modelling (sic), classical statistical tests, time-series analysis, classification, clustering) and graphical techniques, and is highly extensible.”9

There is a RotoViz forum thread for discussing and learning R, but be warned: it’s not for the easily frustrated or non-mathematically inclined, and is like learning a foreign language from people who don’t know how to translate it into the language you currently speak. (See: Correlation.)

RECENCY BIAS

Similar to primacy bias, but even more pronounced. The same concept, but instead of the first thing in a sequence of events skewing the way we perceive subsequent events, it applies to the very last thing in a series of events skewing the way we predict the future. (See: Primacy Bias.)

Per University of Rochester professor of neuroscience Dr. Renee Miller:

“The Primacy Effect, the finding that things that happen first in a sequence of events are preferentially remembered and hold a more prominent place in our memory than subsequent events, with the exception of the most recent event (Recency Bias).”

REDRAFT

Redraft is the term used to describe the most popular format of fantasy football, where teams are drafted at the beginning of the season, and kept through the end of that season, at which time all players are released, and the league disbands. It is the opposite of dynasty, where players are kept at season’s end and leagues last indefinitely. It’s also different than DFS, which typically has no leagues, and rosters usually last just a single day. (See: Dynasty and DFS.)

REGRESSION (to the mean)

Regression is a term used to describe the way single extreme events or data points are outliers, and how subsequent events or data are likely to be closer to historically average (or “mean”) events or data points.

“Regression to the mean is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change.”10

For further reading:

Sabermetrics, Stabilization Rates, and Regression to the Mean

RESULTS (versus PROCESS)

Related to outcome bias and hindsight bias, the term “results over process” is a sarcastic twisting of the phrase “process over results.” It is a simplified, cliche way of emphasizing the need to avoid outcome bias in future predictions, or adjusting the methods to produce predictions. (See: Outcome Bias and Hindsight Bias.)

ROTOVIZ SCREENER

The RotoViz Screener is an all-encompassing app that can be used to look up historical statistics in an extremely broad, comprehensive, and customizable way.

SPEED SCORE (HaSS & WaSS)

There are several statistics that RotoViz and RotoViz emeriti invented, or that combine different statistics into one cleaner, easier to digest and understand number.

Height-adjusted speed score (HaSS), and weight-adjusted speed score (WaSS), are two of these statistics, invented by Shawn Siegele, to contextualize the athleticism of players using combine and pro day measurements.

For further reading:

Dominator Rating, Height Adjusted Speed Score, and WR Draft Rankings

STRAW MAN ARGUMENT

A straw man argument is one of the most common types of logical fallacies.

“an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent’s real argument.”11

SUNK COST FALLACY

Sunk cost fallacy is a term used to describe a flaw in the way the human brain thinks about future decisions based on previous investment of time, emotion, money, etc.

“Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort). This fallacy, which is related to status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment.

For example, individuals sometimes order too much food and then over-eat ‘just to get their money’s worth’. Similarly, a person may have a $20 ticket to a concert and then drive for hours through a blizzard, just because they feel that they have to attend due to having made the initial investment. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred (inconvenience, time or even money) are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the ticket transaction.”12

A common phrase used to describe the sunk cost fallacy is “throwing good money after bad.”

As it pertains to fantasy football, sunk cost fallacy usually describes a player that has lost value and production, but is being overvalued because of their cost in the past. It is commonly used to refer to players that should be dropped from rosters, but owners hold onto because they paid so much to acquire them.

For further reading:

Diary of High-Stakes Virgins: Sunk Costs

VALUE BASED DRAFTING (VBD)

Value Based Drafting (VBD) is a term used to describe the opposite strategy from Best Player Available (BPA). Player values are measured against a baseline measure, and roster construction considers the relative value of different positions. Similar to BPA, it is flawed in its reasoning, and so loosely applied and interpreted that it is often a meaningless term. (See: Best Player Available)

For further reading:

Zero RB, Antifragility, and The Myth Of Value Based Drafting

WORKHORSE

There are several statistics that RotoViz and RotoViz emeriti invented, or that combine different statistics into one cleaner, easier to digest and understand number.

Workhorse is a broad term used to describe running backs that are well-rounded enough to be used heavily by their offense in a variety of situations. It is the opposite of Running-Back-By-Committee (RBBC), which describes teams that use several running backs in more specialized and specific ways and situations.

The Workhorse Metric was invented by Matthew Freedman to identify which prospect running backs were the much more fantasy-valuable workhorse type in their college careers, as opposed to committee backs.

For further reading:

The Workhorse Metric: Your Tool For Scouting Fringe Running Backs

ZERO RB

Zero RB is a fantasy football strategy invented by Shawn Siegele that emphasizes using an antifragile approach to making predictions, and applying that to fantasy football drafts and roster construction.

It is the concept most closely and readily associated with RotoViz, and one that Siegele has extensively written about for several seasons.

Frequently misunderstood, misinterpreted, or misapplied, it is critical to read the foundational articles that form the theory.

For further reading:

 Zero RB, Antifragility, and The Myth Of Value Based Drafting

A Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Zero RB Universe

Fantasyland Podcast No. 4 – Zero RB

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  1. Taken from Wikpedia.  (back)
  2. Taken from Investopedia.  (back)
  3. Taken from Social Research Methods.  (back)
  4. Taken from The Mini Tab Blog.  (back)
  5. Taken from Cards Chat.  (back)
  6. Taken from WhatIs.com.  (back)
  7. Taken from Investopedia.  (back)
  8. Taken from The Washington Post.  (back)
  9. Taken from R Project.  (back)
  10. Taken from Oxford Academic.  (back)
  11. Taken from Merriam Webster.  (back)
  12. Taken from Behavioral Economics, citing the Journal Of Behavioral Decision Making.  (back)
By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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