The RotoViz Scouting Index – RB and WR – Version 6
Here’s the first post-NFL combine version of the RotoViz Scouting Index for running backs and wide receivers, which aggregates NFL draft prospect rankings from across the web. Check the first iteration for a full explanation.
By way of reminder, these aren’t RotoViz rankings. These are rankings from analysts or sites that use more traditional methods of prospect evaluation. We’re just aggregating those rankings and putting a score to them, so we can get a sense of how both real teams and fellow fantasy football GMs might value these players.
|RB||AVE RK||SCORE||N||RSI RK||RSI CHG|
The top of the board remains unchanged, but we do see some movement lower down. Joe Williams jumped seven spots, and Alvin Kamara, Marlon Mack, and Brian Hill each jumped four.
- Joe Williams, 2017’s most underrated workhorse
- Alvin Kamara profile
- Marlon Mack profile
- Brian Hill, dynasty sleeper
Samaje Perine dropped a modest two spots, but interestingly, Dalvin Cook didn’t drop at all, despite what many said was a brutal combine performance.
Williams lands in the 78 percent success node (odds of a top-12 PPR RB season within his first three years in the NFL). Cook lands two nodes to the left, with a respectable 21 percent chance of success. Everybody else lands in the far left node, where the odds of success are…yeesh.
We’ve still got pro days to go, and we’re not looking at production in this example, but stay cautious.
Here’s a look at the top five RB prospects over all six iterations of the RSI.
By standardizing the RSI scores, we can get a good comparison over time. Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook have been locked in at the top. Christian McCaffrey has been the clear third, but Kamara and Joe Mixon have closed the gap considerably.
|WR||AVE RK||SCORE||N||RSI RK||RSI CHG|
Here we see a lot of movement. Chris Godwin jumped 13 spots. Taywan Taylor jumped nine. Eight different receivers fell four or more spots. All this movement is fascinating because we know that athleticism matters less at wide receiver and much more at RB. But the combine2 seems to have triggered a lot of movement at WR but hardly any at RB. Go figure.
Godwin’s big jump may be for the wrong reason, but he is an undervalued prospect. He lands in the 50 percent success node in Kevin Cole’s research (linked above). He also has a solid Phenom Index score that’s very close to that of John Ross and Corey Coleman.
Here’s how the top five WR prospects have fared in the RSI over time.
Cooper Kupp isn’t in the Box Score Scout, but here’s how the other four compare.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is miles ahead of Ross and Mike Williams in career market share. I’m also intrigued by Smith-Schuster’s fall relative to Kupp. The 20-year-old registered a Freak Score of 58 compared to the 23-year-old sliding in at 43. Athletically, Kupp doesn’t comp to any players of note.
But Smith-Schuster does.
Again, athleticism can be overrated for WRs, but our new information is all about athleticism. So it seems odd that Kupp rose in the RSI while Smith-Schuster fell. I’m not committing to a final ranking yet, but if I had to right now, I’d be tempted to put Smith-Schuster second behind Corey Davis.
- So, You Want to be a Writer?
- The Definitive NFL Combine Primer
- WR Size and Survivorship Bias
- The CIA, the NFL, and Using Data Driven Models
- I Don't Care About Drops
- Everyone is For Sale
- Rookie Running Back Lessons
- How to Value Suspensions (via Rotoworld)
- Using the Box Score Scout to Win Friends and Influence People
- Using the Dynasty App for Fun and Profit