Dynasty

Brian Hill Warns Not To Trade Your 3rd Round Rookie Pick

With all of the attention on the top RBs in the 2017 NFL draft class, Brian Hill appears ready to be a late round star.

Production

Hill amassed over 4,200 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and 30 touchdowns during his three-year career at Wyoming. And during his final season, he totaled 1,860 yards rushing and 22 touchdowns. That level of single year production places Hill in an elite class. Using the Sports Reference player game finder, I searched for players who rushed for at least 1,800 yards and 22 TDs in one season since 2000 and got the following results:

RkPlayerYearSchoolGRushing AttRushing YdsRushing AvgRushing TD
1Melvin Gordon2014Wisconsin1434325877.529
2Kevin Smith2007Central Florida1445025675.729
3Derrick Henry2015Alabama1539522195.628
4LaDainian Tomlinson2000Texas Christian1136921585.822
5Matt Forte2007Tulane1236121275.923
6Ray Rice2007Rutgers1338020125.324
7Leonard Fournette2015Louisiana State1230019536.522
8DeAngelo Williams2004Memphis1231319486.222
9Ka'Deem Carey2012Arizona1330319296.423
10Montee Ball2011Wisconsin1430719236.333
11Jordan Lynch2013Northern Illinois1429219206.623
12Damien Anderson2000Northwestern1129319146.522
13Stefphon Jefferson2012Nevada1337518835.024
14Toby Gerhart2009Stanford1334318715.528
15Brian Hill2016Wyoming1434918605.322
16Montee Ball2012Wisconsin1435618305.122
17Jay Ajayi2014Boise State1434718235.328
18Ezekiel Elliott2015Ohio State1328918216.323
19Tre Mason2013Auburn1431718165.723

While there are ineffective NFL players, the list also includes some intriguing names. Finding a middle- or late-round player with similar production to Melvin Gordon, LaDainian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, or Ray Rice could completely change the outlook of a dynasty team. The beauty of a player like Hill is that the associated risk is minimized by his low ADP.

Prospect Comparisons

While Hill doesn’t place among the desirable nodes of Kevin Cole’s RB Regression Tree, he scores well in the RB Prospect Lab. After inputting Hill’s information, the app gave him a scaled prospect score of 66. It also provides a list of players who have scored in the same range.

NAMETMAGEYEARWTFORTYCONEATTSYPGTDSRECSSCORE
DESHAUN FOSTERUCLA21.8320022224.576.8227138.621.51.1268
RUDI JOHNSONAuburn21.1920012274.577.3227130.581.080.7568
ROBERT TURBINUtah State22.0520122224.427.1619.15116.691.461.3167
MONTEE BALLWisconsin22.0920132144.466.8825.43130.711.570.7167
JAVON RINGERMichigan State21.9320092054.556.8730125.921.692.1566
MARSHAWN LYNCHCalifornia20.720072154.467.0917.15104.310.852.6266
BRIAN HILLWyoming21.220172194.547.0324.9132.91.60.666
KNOWSHON MORENOGeorgia21.4820092174.56.8419.23107.691.232.5465
MAURICE DREWUCLA20.7920062074.397.0815.576.171.082.5865
JAMAAL CHARLESTexas21.0120082004.386.819.85124.541.381.3165
GIOVANI BERNARDNorth Carolina21.0220132024.56.9118.4122.81.24.764
KNILE DAVISArkansas21.1520132274.356.9611.237.70.21.164
TYLER GAFFNEYStanford22.7220142204.496.7823.57122.071.51.0763

The most encouraging names are Marshawn Lynch, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Jamaal Charles. While these superstars create unrealistic expectations, names like Rudi Johnson, Knowshon Moreno, and Giovani Bernard point toward other possible outcomes that would still result in several seasons worth of top-24 RB production.

We can find players with Hill’s specific blend of attributes using the Box Score Scout.

Brian Hill BSS

Conclusion

For dynasty owners, Hill’s current draft projection is worth noticing. The Wyoming star ranks No. 16 among RBs in the most recent RotoViz Scouting Index, making him a likely third- or fourth-round rookie draft selection. At that price, fantasy players will be hard pressed to find a prospect with a higher ceiling than Brian Hill.

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By Matt Wispe | @WispeyTheKid | Archive

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