Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers
“I rise…you fall!”
Optimus Prime, leader of the Autobots, “Transformers – Revenge of the Fallen”
MFL10s are in full swing. We are already beginning to see patterns emerging regarding how the fantasy community is viewing the stock of players ahead of the 2017 season. Even though owners won’t reap the benefits of players they select for over six months, current ADP is not to be dismissed out of hand.
Using the RotoViz Best Ball ADP app, I have identified five players whose ADP have taken a severe nose dive over the last two weeks. We shall look at the possible reasons for this fall, and I’ll offer my thoughts as to whether they are still a sound investment, or whether should they be allowed to keep falling.
Despite an eye-popping 17.89 yards per reception in 2016,1 Chris Hogan did very little to justify any faith fantasy owners would have had in him. He hit double digit fantasy points just four times, despite receiving four or more targets nine times. The murky waters that the Patriots receiving options swim in became even cloudier in the first week of free agency, when the team added Brandin Cooks via trade from the New Orleans Saints. Not exactly built along the same lines as Hogan,2 Cooks is a faster downfield option. His career yards per reception mark of 13.3 was bolstered in 2016 when he averaged 15 yards per catch. While only a fool or a hero would say for certain that any player has no role on the Patriots, 3 it’s hard for me to think that Hogan will offer better value than WR65, which is his current MFL10 positional ADP. I’ll let you take him.
Thomas Rawls MFL10 stock has fallen from RB15 to RB25 in the last two weeks. As you can see above, it’s almost as if a heavy weight landed on his ADP around March 14th, sending a steady decline into freefall. Technically, this is correct, as it was on the 14th that the Seahawks inked the 267-pound Eddie Lacy to a free agent contract. Strangely, that was the same date that Lacy’s ADP began to show signs of thinning out.
This move pretty much tells the world what the Seahawks think about Rawls — they would rather pay a man better suited to playing guard in his current condition decent running back money than roll with Rawls. Lacy is of course far from a picture of durability, missing 12 games in the last two seasons, and there is the prospect that Rawls and C.J. Prosise will get some carries in 2017. But at present, given his skills as a pass catcher, I’d guess that the backup option to own in Seattle would be Prosise. Rawls has averaged one catch a game as a pro, while Prosise averaged nearly three grabs in six games in 2016. He’s going off the board as RB22 in MFL10, and is a much better option than Rawls, assuming Lacy wins the starting battle.
From Week 10 onwards, Kenneth Dixon had the 24th-most rushing yards among running backs in 2016, with only Jordan Howard, Ezekiel Elliott, Rob Kelley and Paul Perkins having more than his 359 yards among rookie RBs. Things looked quite bright back on March 5th, with Dixon going off the board as RB21 in MFL10. Then on the 9th of March, the Ravens signed Danny Woodhead AND it was announced Dixon would miss four games due to a PED suspension. Since then, Dixon has fallen to RB32. With only Woodhead (more a receiver than a RB) and Terrance West left on the Ravens currently to carry the mail in Dixon’s absence, you could argue that Dixon should still be owned. But at present, he’s going ahead of backs like Jeremy Hill, Duke Johnson and Woodhead. Despite not being studs, these players all have a clearly defined role on their offenses AND are not going to miss a quarter of the season. I don’t like this current price for Dixon.
Like Dixon, Sterling Shepard was another player for whom it appears MFL10 players initially thought could be in line for a sophomore jump. On March 5th, 33 wide receivers were being taken ahead of him, putting him in low end WR3 territory. He was still being selected ahead of Brandon Marshall, Corey Coleman, and Rishard Matthews, which is ludicrous when you consider just how productive Matthews actually was late in the 2016 season compared to Shepard.
But I digress.
On March 8th, the Giants signed the aforementioned Marshall, and the knock to the appeal of Shepard was quite instant. From the 9th to the 17th, the MFL10 community has, on average, started taking Shepard as the 45th WR, behind Marshall (WR32), Matthews 4 and Martavis Bryant.5 As a player limited to slot work, and with a quarterback in Eli Manning who just might be finished, Shepard falls into the dart-throw category at present. There are better darts available much later who interest me more. I’m not buying at this price.
As a fantasy writer, I am contractually obliged to write at least one offseason Josh Gordon piece, so I may as well get it out of the way now. On March 1st, it was reported that Gordon had applied for reinstatement to the NFL after last playing a live NFL game back in December 2014. This sparked some buzz as to whether the 2013 receiving yards leader could be set to return to the big time, and between the 2nd and 6th of March he went off the MFL10 boards as the 65th WR. The 1st of March was the last time any significant Gordon news was heard, and as a result the interest in Gordon has faded again somewhat. Between the 7th and the 17th, he fell to WR67, but was being taken 20 picks later than before. Get over it people! In a format in which you can make no changes once the draft is over, why use up a valuable roster spot on someone who will only let you down? Face it. Daddy’s gone, and he’s never coming back. But that doesn’t mean your uncle Dutton doesn’t love you very much.
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- Hogan’s postseason mark was actually 19.53 (back)
- Cooks is 5 feet 10 inches tall and weighs in at 189 pounds, whereas Hogan is 6 feet 1 inch tall and 220 pounds. (back)
- The Patriots have paid Danny Amendola a fortune for practically nothing, after all (back)
- Who is still only WR42? Come on people! (back)
- WR44 and a man who is not even eligible to play in 2017 as yet. (back)