Kenny Britt Goes to Cleveland, RotoViz Rejoices
Some interesting and exciting news came along the NFL wire on Thursday morning.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 9, 2017
If you’ve been a long-time RotoViz reader, or have spent any amount of time talking to Shawn Siegele, you know that our love for Kenny Britt runs deep and stands true to the test of time. This is a terrific move for Cleveland and presents a potential arbitrage opportunity for fantasy owners.
The signing of Britt probably means the end of Terrelle Pyror in Cleveland. While he found success in his first full season as a starting WR, the team reportedly did not want to pay the $10 million asking price of the converted quarterback. So they paid Britt less money, presumably to fill a similar role. This could actually be an upgrade for the Browns at a cheaper price.
While Pryor certainly saw more target volume than Britt, the former Scarlet Knight was more efficient in every way. This is made even more impressive when we consider that Pryor averaged 14.4 air yards per target to Britt’s 11.6. The pair also finished with the same number of PPR points per game. This despite Britt playing in an objectively worse passing offense.
Especially considering Britt’s awesome prospect profile and early career production, he’s the better player despite the hype Pryor has gotten since becoming relevant.
Britt appears to have gotten out of Los Angeles at the perfect time. If we forecast 2017 for each team using their rookie QB from 2016, it’s easy to see the kind of nightmare Britt owners were in store for.
I am on team “Cody Kessler is good,” but no matter what you think of him, he was worlds better that Jared Goff in 2016. The best part about Cleveland is that they have the assets to upgrade at the position should they so choose.
Last season, Pryor saw 140 targets in 16 games, but first round rookie Corey Coleman missed six games due to injury. Let’s see what that target volume looked like with Coleman on the field.
While Pryor certainly benefited greatly from Coleman’s absence, he still was on a 131 target pace with the rookie on the field. Even if Coleman takes a step forward in year two, Britt has a clear path to the 111 targets he saw last year with the Rams when he was the WR26 in PPR leagues. In a better offense with better QB play, he could turn that volume into solid WR2 production.
The best part about this move is the buying opportunity it provides for fantasy owners. So far in early MFL10’s, Pryor is coming off the board as the WR29, while Britt is all the way down at WR50. In dynasty leagues, Pryor has a startup ADP of WR32. Britt sits at WR60 according to Dynasty League Football.
Britt could end up outscoring Pryor’s 2016 season, and is only nine months older. I would recommend fantasy owners go out and buy Britt now before the price adjusts too much. In both formats, it’s very possible the cost for Britt never truly gets to where it should be, and he ends up a value all summer.