Dynasty

Can Jordan Howard Redeem the Decision to Part With Sammy Watkins?

Last week I traded Sammy Watkins and the suspended ghost of Doug Martin to 14TeamMocker for Jordan Howard, Tyrell Williams, and two future first round picks. That’s not precisely true. I’ll get into the nuts and bolts in a moment, but you should reader Mocker’s rationale for the trade. It’s one of the best explanations I’ve read for how trading works in dynasty.

How the Blockbuster Developed

Mocker GivesShawn GivesOutcome
Jordan Howard, Tyrell Williams, 2018 1st, 2019 2ndSammy Watkins, Doug MartinCountered
Howard, Williams, 3.10, 2018 1st, 2019 1stWatkins, 2018 2nd, 2019 2ndCountered
Howard, Williams, 3.10, 2018 1st, 2019 1stWatkins, Martin, 2018 2nd, 2019 2ndCountered
Howard, Williams, 3.10, 3.12, 2018 1st, 2019 1stWatkins, Martin, 2018 3rd, 2019 2ndCountered
Howard, Williams, 3.12, 2018 1st, 2019 1stWatkins, Martin, 2018 3rd, 2019 2ndAccepted
Mocker’s Twitter poll finished somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-to-1 in my favor on this trade, but I have it even. I actually felt the most comfortable with the move before the last counter.

Higher on Watkins Than the Community

Watkins was a monster as a freshman in college, posted elite career market share numbers, heard his name called in the first five reality picks in 2014, and immediately hit my personal threshold for a WR breakout, 200 PPR points or roughly WR2 status. Learn more in Anatomy of a Breakout. Those types of players are rare and should be grabbed in the first round of dynasty startups. I selected Watkins at 1.11 in our February RotoViz startup mock. As his injuries have created buying opportunities, I’ve been adding him in my real leagues, and I jumped at the chance to select him in our dispersal snake draft.

Subscribe to the best value in fantasy sports

You're all out of free reads for now and subscribing is the only way to make sure you don't ever miss an article.

By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

Comments   Add comment

  1. McG says:

    I really like this feature and would enthusiastically read more. Thanks.

  2. Great stuff as always. I prefer the Howard side as well.

    "Draft picks are consistently overvalued" and "create the potential for a future super-lineup by stockpiling first-round picks" seem to be at strategic odds with each other, however. Or perhaps you mean to trade those picks to build the future super lineup?

    Last year I traded Moncrief for 2 picks that became Michael Thomas and Howard. At the time, my league mates thought I was insane. Some dumb luck was involved there, of course, but I've found that the owners who take too many antibiotics and refuse to catch a little rookie fever every now and then also tend to get stuck with Walking Dead teams before they know it.

  3. Thanks @McG. We'll try to make sure we continue to feature posts like this. It can often be quite helpful to look at trades and players from multiple perspectives. (And analysis in the context of real leagues can often be much better than in a vacuum.)

    I agree on your note @Silverback. That could easily be seen to be contradictory. My thought with the picks is that they tend to retain both value and flexibility. Having both components gives them a lot of value in building rosters long term. They can effectively function as money in the intermediate term, and then they're frequently tradeable above actual value at the time of the draft, or they can be kept if a difference-making player is available during the draft.

    I was thinking about this in relation to some developmental dynasty leagues I participate in where holding the devy players is a lot less favorable. An early player can see a sharp decline in value (say Smith-Schuster) and even in the case where a player doesn't decline, in order to trade that devy player you have to find another owner who values him similarly. (Whereas right now, a 1.01 can represent Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Davis, or Williams.)

    I also strongly agree with your point about rookie fever. Catch it!

Discuss this article on the RotoViz Forums