Predicting the Future with Sabermetrics – Numbers Game 90
Episode 90 (February 8th, 2017): The ninetieth episode of The Numbers Game (@NumbersGamePod), a sports analytics RotoViz Radio podcast.
If you’re a listener of the show who hasn’t subscribed yet to RotoViz, you can get a special 30% discount through the podcast.
Host: Nick Giffen (@RotoDoc) Editor at RotoViz, Top-Five NASCAR DFS player, and Math Ph.D
Host: Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscojosh) Contributor at RotoViz
HOST DISCUSSIONS: Falcons Collapse, Pythagorean Expectation, Target Depth
Nick and Josh talk about the wild finish to Super Bowl LI and whether that was a Patriots comeback or a Falcons collapse. They then talk about Pythagorean Expectation, specifically around first-order, second-order, and third-order wins and what that means for predicting future team quality. They then identify which teams they think will regress both upward and downward based off wins over expectation. Finally, they talk about some work Josh has been doing around depth of target and what it means for expected value.
Our theme music is by Black Ant.