NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections: The Clash at Daytona

The Clash at Daytona is this Saturday, and with qualifying all set (by a random draw), it’s time to give NASCAR DFS picks and two kinds of projections for Saturday’s slate. Hopefully I can help you all in this same slate where I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the $100k GPP last year. The first kind of projections are my machine learning projections. These should be the most accurate projections, although they won’t provide a very wide range among the drivers for this particular race because of the random nature of the race. The second set of projections use similarity scores to identify historic comparable drivers to each driver, based off of his stats coming into the race (such as driver rating, laps led, and so forth at all tracks, and at similar tracks). This gives us a range of outcomes, where I’ve included the 25th and 75th percentile finishes along with the median outcome among each driver’s historic comps. Let’s dive into the projections, and then I’ll give my NASCAR DFS picks for The Clash at Daytona. For NASCAR DFS slate strategy, check out my article from earlier in the week, as well as the NASCAR edition of the On the Daily DFS podcast where we analyze this slate.

NASCAR DFS Machine Learning Model Projections – The Clash

Here are the machine learning projections. They differ from the sim score projections in that this is the average finish. So finishes of 2, 3, 3, and 16 average to a finish of 6, but the median would be 3. So the sim score projections will tend to have a lower median than the average from the machine learning model. Both are useful. As a reminder, since Daniel Suarez has no historical data in the cup series, he is not listed. Also note, because laps led and fastest laps are nearly impossible to predict, I am only projecting finishing position, which gives us DK points for finishing position and place differential, so that is what is listed below.

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By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive