Advice

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Williams, and the Air Yards FBS Receiver Database

For the past two years the folks behind the site cfbfilmroom have been charting players at select FBS schools and publishing the results of their efforts. In 2016 they covered 13 teams from the major conferences. Along with things like contested catches and YAC, cfbfilmroom also publishes Air Yards Per Target for quarterbacks and receivers.

Using the aYPT data, I was able to back-calculate Total Air yards for each team, as well as market share of air yards, RACR, and WOPR for each receiver in the sample. Here is the list of teams cfbfilmroom charted, along with their total team air yards:

Year Team Air Yards Yards
2016 BAMA 3326 2892
2016 FLA 3106 2786
2016 LSU 3066 2280
2016 MISS 2044 1657
2016 TENN 2448 2245
2016 CLEM 5556 4832
2016 FSU 4347 3344
2016 MICH 3497 2756
2016 OSU 3582 2704
2016 OKLA 3840 4131
2016 ORE 3485 2959
2016 USC 3934 3593
2016 ND 4113 3036

And here is a list of each of the receivers on the 13 teams who saw five or more targets during the season. You can also download a csv file of the entire dataset here.

Note: There isn’t enough data available on air yards in college to be able to draw conclusions about how the data should be interpreted. It may be the case that we should expect high efficiency from top college prospects, where in the NFL we find that efficiency is largely random. Prospect evaluation based on untested data is largely carnival palm reading. That said, for an analysis of a few of the players topping this list, I went over Juju Smith-Schuster, Dede Westbrook, and Mike Williams on a recent podcast of the Numbers Game.

PlayerTeamCatch%Contested Catch%Juke RateAir YardsTgt ShareMS AiraYPTRACRWOPR
Tyler ByrdTENN62%0%62%1160.070.055.51.740.14
Alvin KamaraTENN69%0%55%130.110.010.420.000.17
De'Veon SmithMICH80%0%50%-80.05-0.00-0.4-8.250.08
Joshua JacobsBAMA74%0%50%-40.05-0.00-0.2-43.680.07
Samaje PerineOKLA91%100%50%-140.03-0.00-1.3-7.410.04
Justin DavisUSC75%100%47%-100.04-0.00-0.5-11.200.06
Jalen GreeneUSC56%17%44%1820.030.0511.40.640.08
Mykel JonesOKLA81%40%38%1100.040.036.90.960.08
Damien HarrisBAMA81%0%38%-370.04-0.01-2.3-2.880.05
Dalvin CookFSU70%0%36%1180.110.032.54.050.19
ArDarius StewartBAMA63%45%34%7540.170.2611.60.920.44
Lamical PerineFLA90%0%33%-370.02-0.01-3.7-4.350.03
Dede WestbrookOKLA75%45%32%11870.280.3111.31.280.63
Wayne GallmanCLEM74%0%30%-240.04-0.00-0.9-5.840.06
Jeffery MeadOKLA56%25%30%2770.050.0715.40.540.12
Steven MitchellUSC77%71%29%1550.070.045.01.460.13
A.J. BrownMISS74%50%29%1900.110.0910.00.990.22
Ronald Jones IIUSC58%0%27%300.040.011.62.500.07
Joe MixonOKLA84%25%27%1410.120.043.23.880.20
Jauan JenningsTENN58%58%27%4860.160.2010.80.780.38
Mark AndrewsOKLA63%23%26%5730.130.1511.70.850.30
Johnny MundtORE62%20%24%3060.090.099.01.060.20
C.J. SandersND58%20%24%2810.100.077.81.020.19
Darreus RogersUSC69%50%23%8910.180.2311.00.780.42
Cam SimsBAMA72%25%23%1580.050.058.80.970.11
Grant PerryMICH52%29%23%2230.070.068.90.820.15
Deontay BurnettUSC71%31%22%6930.170.189.00.890.37
Jake ButtMICH68%40%22%4830.180.147.11.130.37
Travis RudolphFSU56%20%21%12600.240.2912.60.660.57
Tyrie ClevelandFLA52%43%21%4620.070.1517.10.650.20
Van JeffersonMISS70%67%21%3730.150.1813.80.640.35
Artavis ScottCLEM78%50%21%4560.140.085.31.220.27
Marcus BaughOSU53%45%21%3020.120.086.70.890.23
Cornell PowellCLEM77%0%20%520.020.014.01.520.04
Ray-Ray McCloudCLEM70%33%20%3420.090.066.01.150.18
Auden TateFSU56%41%20%6800.110.1615.10.600.27
Dontre WilsonOSU78%50%20%3200.080.0910.01.040.19
Royce FreemanORE91%0%20%-200.06-0.01-0.9-5.610.09
Kermit WhitfieldFSU66%50%19%4420.110.109.40.880.24
Charles NelsonORE65%29%19%6590.200.198.90.780.43
Deon CainCLEM50%17%18%13380.130.2417.60.540.36
Josh SmithTENN38%13%18%2470.100.108.50.340.22
JuJu Smith-SchusterUSC65%18%18%11540.230.2911.10.790.54
K.J. HillOSU74%67%18%2070.060.069.01.140.13
Amara DarbohMICH59%38%18%13630.260.3914.20.630.66
James ClarkOSU38%20%17%2770.040.0817.30.170.12
C'yontai LewisFLA55%40%17%2380.080.087.20.770.17
Miles BoykinND40%0%17%2000.040.0513.30.410.09
Curtis SamuelOSU74%50%16%8460.230.249.41.010.51
Noah BrownOSU61%40%16%6780.130.1913.30.590.33
Equanimeous St. BrownND64%25%16%11160.240.2712.40.860.55
Antonio CallawayFLA62%9%15%9550.210.3111.10.750.53
Calvin RidleyBAMA59%18%15%11110.260.3811.00.630.66
Ahmad FulwoodFLA54%33%14%2160.030.0716.60.520.10
Josh MaloneTENN61%42%14%8890.200.3615.60.730.55
Josh HammondFLA74%50%14%1430.050.057.51.240.10
Jordan LeggettCLEM64%63%14%7040.110.1310.21.030.26
DeAndre GoolsbyFLA72%25%13%3130.130.105.91.090.26
Mike WilliamsCLEM69%49%13%17860.240.3212.40.760.58
DaMarkus LodgeMISS62%0%13%1790.070.0913.80.770.17
Trevon DiggsBAMA57%0%13%1120.040.048.00.690.08
Freddie SwainFLA57%20%13%1960.030.0614.00.600.10
Geno LewisOKLA74%23%13%4390.110.1110.20.880.25
Chris FinkeND62%50%13%1260.030.039.70.880.07
Khalid HillMICH94%0%13%220.050.011.35.340.07
Kevin StephersonND51%0%12%8130.130.2016.60.580.33
Tony Brooks-JamesORE85%0%12%20.050.000.175.500.08
Jalen BrownORE53%33%12%5540.090.1617.30.550.24
Hunter RenfrowCLEM68%29%12%5990.100.119.50.810.23
Ryan IzzoFSU58%0%11%2510.080.067.60.910.16
Jesus WilsonFSU56%18%10%5150.130.129.90.750.27
Jalen HurdTENN63%0%10%300.060.011.92.630.09
Mavin SaundersFSU71%100%10%1900.030.0413.60.960.08
Jason CroomTENN52%0%9%1680.070.078.00.880.16
Pharaoh BrownORE72%38%9%3130.130.096.81.360.25
Terry McLaurinOSU52%50%9%3170.050.0915.10.360.14
Mike WeberOSU75%0%8%-450.08-0.01-1.4-2.030.11
Nyqwan MurrayFSU57%54%8%6220.100.1414.80.690.25
Quincy AdeboyejoMISS52%18%8%3700.140.1814.80.410.34
Dwayne StanfordORE76%50%8%1920.050.0611.30.910.11
Brandon PowellFLA64%13%7%4690.170.156.80.810.36
Gehrig DieterBAMA47%0%7%4480.080.1514.00.480.23
Ethan WolfTENN63%0%7%2260.080.099.40.800.19
Torii Hunter Jr.ND58%0%6%7250.160.1811.70.700.37
Jordan CronkriteFLA65%0%5%-30.08-0.00-0.1-38.710.11
Darren CarringtonORE61%18%5%10230.180.2915.50.520.47
Damore’ea StringfellowMISS74%67%5%3270.150.1612.10.930.34
O.J. HowardBAMA75%50%5%4980.150.178.91.150.34
Evan EngramMISS77%44%3%3510.220.179.01.360.45
Jehu ChessonMICH52%25%3%9380.180.2714.00.530.46
Josh AdamsND63%0%0%1290.080.034.31.500.14
Corey HolmesND52%0%0%2160.060.0510.30.440.12
Durham SmytheND53%0%0%1770.040.0410.40.640.10
Tyler PetiteUSC59%17%0%1770.040.0410.40.880.09
Evan BaylisORE47%33%0%1480.050.047.80.460.11
Preston WilliamsTENN69%33%0%1120.050.058.60.800.10
DeQuan HamptonUSC54%33%0%1510.030.0411.60.480.07
A.D. MillerOKLA57%40%0%3110.060.0814.80.470.14
Parris CampbellOSU52%50%0%3180.060.0912.70.380.16
Taylor McNamaraUSC75%50%0%930.030.025.81.200.07
C.J. FullerCLEM70%50%0%710.020.017.10.870.03
Nick BasquineOKLA77%60%0%2520.070.079.71.050.15
Binjimen VictorOSU40%60%0%1720.030.0517.20.370.07
Trevion ThompsonCLEM73%67%0%1440.020.039.60.750.06
Daniel ImatorbhebheUSC85%100%0%2820.040.0714.10.890.12
Dimitri FlowersOKLA79%100%0%2240.040.0616.00.890.10

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By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive

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