Historical Comps for Tyreek Hill’s Rookie Season

How does Tyreek Hill’s rookie season compare to other recent rookies, and how do those comps inform our expectations going forward? If you’ve been around RotoViz for any length of time, you know we like making range of outcome-based projections. And we’ve got a fantastic Screener to facilitate that. My goal is to set some expectations for the 2016 rookie wide receivers. To do that, I set the Screener to find rookies from 2010 – 2016, and selected some basic production and usage numbers as variables. I also included draft pick. The influence of draft pick on a player’s opportunity declines over time, but it’s still relevant heading into a player’s second season. Then I asked the Screener to find seasons comparable to my target player.1 Up next, Tyreek Hill.
  1. The app provides 20 comparables, but I’m limiting myself to the top five. I’m also excluding fellow 2016 rookies from the comps.  (back)

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @Spidr2ybanana | Archive

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  1. FFC has him as the ~20th WR right now. Andy says he's gonna play more next year. I'm not enamored with his hands but can't question his legs. As a Chiefs fan, I have no idea when the right time to draft Tyreek is.

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