DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 Picks and Model Projections
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Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, one year after placing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the same event. RotoDoc also finished 8th out of over 20,000 entrants in the $400k DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 slate last year, after being in 1st place going into the last lap. The Can-Am Duels at Daytona are over and the field is set for the Daytona 500. DraftKings is hosting a $500k guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournament with a $20 buy-in. I’ll break down the DraftKings Daytona 500 slate, and give my picks, fades, and machine learning model projections for Sunday’s Great American Race. If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the restrictor plate section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers and remember, at a track as wild as Daytona it is not a requirement to find a race dominator. Make sure to look out for my DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 slate strategy article, coming out Saturday morning, where I’ll talk roster construction tips, and GPP game theory to help you for Sunday’s slate.
DraftKings NASCAR Daytona Model ProjectionsThe model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions lower than 22nd. The DKPts column shows the average DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race. I also have a column for did not finish (DNF) percentage, which is the expected proportion a driver doesn’t finish the race in the lead pack. The ExPts column is calculated by the following formula:
ExPts = DKPts*(1-DNF) + [(44-33.6)+(Start-33.6)]*DNFwhich essentially says it gets the DKPts when a driver finishes, and credits the driver with a 33.6 place finish if he ends up not finishing. Here are the model projections, followed by my DraftKings Daytona 500 picks.