Advice

Predicting 2016 QB Performance Was Really Hard

Thanks to the RotoViz Screener, we can quickly access data all the way back to 2000 and use the data to answer pressing questions. One thing I noticed is that predicting QB performance, even over the course of a full season, is really freaking hard.

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By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive

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  1. Anything that pushes the limits to improve accuracy is very welcomed by this fantasy player. I almost feel guilty keeping this site from my league mates.
    One article I'd like to see is an explanation of how season long projections are determined. Obviously, you use the projection machine, get input from lots of different writers, but does everyone also use your data from you machine learning? Is there a process of tools that everyone uses or is it left to the individual to decide which tools are best to use?

  2. Great question. We leave it to every writer to decide his or her own process for using the projection machine. That's actually the best way to do it, in my opinion, because it gives us a true wisdom of the crowds approach. It's like the ox story...individual guesses for 787 villagers may have ranged anywhere from 100 to 10,000 pounds, but the crowd average was really close to the actual weight. We want our writers to do the same, using whatever process they think is best.

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