Draft Strategy

Three “Boring” Values for 2017 Redraft

With the 2016 fantasy season over, I’m here to remind you to take player notes now for your 2017 redraft leagues. Unlike dynasty leagues, redraft-only fantasy owners sometimes forget about various players during the offseason. As such, some “boring” players remain significant values all the way through draft season. So while you may relish the time off (but realistically, if you’re here, you begin the countdown to drafts the day after your season ends), it’s important to take notes for next season so you can exploit values entering the next season.

Andy Dalton

Despite missing his top wide receiver, A.J. Green (964 yards and 4 TDs through 10 weeks), after week 11 and his top red zone target, Tyler Eifert, for eight weeks, Andy Dalton finished the season as the 12th overall QB in fantasy. During his career, Dalton has seen a noticeable dip in scoring without Green and Eifert, as shown by his game splits below:

DaltonSplit

DaltonSplitsEifert

According the the RotoViz Best Ball ADP app, Dalton ended draft season as QB18 and with this “disappointing” season, his ADP will likely open in a similar range in early 2017. With his receiving corps back at full strength, Dalton is poised to out-perform his ADP again. If you’re drafting in early MFL10s, Dalton represents QB1 value at a mid-QB2 price.

Breshad Perriman

Remember the early off-season narratives in 2016 regarding the Ravens’ WR group? Steve Smith was toast, Mike Wallace was five years beyond his peak, Perriman was a nobody, and Kamar Aiken was the projected top WR for this group. And the “top WR” was drafted in the ninth round of Best Ball leagues.

Well, now there is a little more clarity for the group. Smith has officially retired and Wallace is the top returning WR according to yards and targets. But there’s still some hope for the former draft darling. For WRs targeted more than 50 times, Perriman finished 2016 as the 16th best WR in yards per reception. Additionally, Perriman led all Ravens WRs in touchdown rate at 5.2 percent. With a similar situation to early 2016, expect Ravens WRs to be drafted late again in 2017 and Perriman to emerge as the best value in MFL10s.

Isaiah Crowell

Crowell finished 2016 as RB14 in PPR format despite the Browns finishing last in the league in rush attempts. Among RBs who played at least 50 percent of snaps, Crowell finished seventh in points per opportunity and 11th in points per snap.

As a whole, the Browns organization was an undeniable disaster in 2016, but this will likely make players more of a value entering early drafts. According to ProFootballReference, the Browns finished second in the league in rushing yards per attempt (4.9 yards) and tied for 16th in rushing TDs. Crowell ended draft season as RB38 (115 overall) and should remain inexpensive for the 2017 season. As the Browns offense improves (because it has to get better, right?), Crowell should see more scoring opportunities.

 

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By Matt Wispe | @WispeyTheKid | Archive

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