Diary of High-Stakes Virgins: FFPC Playoff Ownership
Last week we wrote up a piece on how we planned to attack the FFPC Playoff Contest while attempting to project the percentages of the players we thought would be the most highly owned. Now that lineups are locked and the FFPC has posted the full set of ownership numbers, we figured we’d return to share our lineup and our thoughts on ownership.
Ownership Percentages (Estimated vs. Actual)
Click here to view the full set of ownership numbers, including Kickers and Defenses.
Pete: In our article last week, we projected six players to be above 50 percent ownership and we nearly got that exactly right. Tom Brady was just under at 47 percent and we had him at 50 percent. We nailed Travis Kelce on the head at 70 percent and were just a couple percentage points off on Jordy Nelson. The biggest surprise was Ezekiel Elliott at 87 percent. We figured he’d be much lower owned, with Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott commanding some ownership. That didn’t end up being the case, as 2175 out of 2750 (!) lineups rostered Elliott. This resulted in Dez being massively under-owned at just 6 percent and quite possibly the best play of the tournament in hindsight.
Pat: Before lineup lock we anticipated that Antonio Brown would be the best play on the board. We also thought Bryant at an estimated 30 percent ownership was a nice play, but we were less excited about it. Now knowing the ownership percentages, it seems crazy that Brown, who was even less owned than anticipated at 17 percent, isn’t my favorite play. Instead, it’s Bryant, who is owned by only 166 teams in the entire tournament. I couldn’t be happier that we pivoted off of Elliott to Bryant. That last comment will undoubtedly bite me in the ass when Zeke crushes, but come on… Dez at 6 percent? I’m all over that. #process
Pete: As far as our projections, we also low-balled Odell Beckham (79 percent vs. 60 percent) and Le’Veon Bell (79 percent vs. 65 percent). Fading Beckham certainly worked out and Brown and Bell ended up being a wash.
Pat: Fading Beckham and the Giants, which we did because we were sunk if Aaron Rodgers lost in Round 1, worked out perfectly. Despite being under on our ownership projections for Elliott, Bell, and Beckham, we were dead right in believing they would be the chalk. This led us to Bryant, Brown, and a total fade of the Giants. Those options ultimately gave us even more lineup differentiation than we imagined. Playing Rodgers (a less optimal play than Brady, but at half the ownership) may or may not work out in the long run, but at least it kept us off Nelson, who’s dragging down over half the teams in the field.
Pete: I’m feeling pretty good about our lineup after week one. In fading every single one of those top six owned players, we are set up for some really nice leverage plays. We’ll obviously know more after the Divisional Round, but getting LeGarrette Blount (16 percent), Tyreek Hill (10 percent), and Dez (6 percent) all at low ownership sets us up for some big time swings if they have big games and/or Brady, Kelce, and Elliott struggle. As our friends Nick Giffen and Ben Gretch like to say, there are some realistic “story times” for all three of those games to bounce our way. The Pats as double-digit home favorites, ride Blount hard in the second half… Hill continues his insane streak of touchdowns on limited touches… the Packers jump to an early lead, forcing the Cowboys to chuck it…
Pat: Yea, I’m really excited about this team, too. The only thing I’m sad about is because Bell, Elliott, and Beckham were so chalky, we could have gone Kelce/Doug Baldwin over Jimmy Graham/Hill and still been plenty differentiated from the field. But the same thought process that kept us off Kelce also kept us off Beckham, Bell, and Elliot. Plus, part of the reason we liked Graham is because we liked his odds of playing two games, which he will, while Kelce is about even odds to be one and done. We’re currently on pace for 381.6 points, which is about 60 points from what will likely be the winning score, but considering that we had three WRs and a RB sitting out this week and only lost our kicker and defense in the wild card round, it’s a great start for us.
Pete: I’ll put the champagne on ice.