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Deconstructing the Divisional Round Betting Lines

Throughout the season we broke down implied team totals each week based on offensive and defensive scoring tendencies. Let’s do the same for the divisional round playoff matchups based on regular season scoring trends. The percentages in the below tables refer to each team’s points scored and points allowed tendencies from the regular season. The “Tm %” and “Opp %” are rates of a team’s total points scored or allowed that come through each phase of the game. Those rates are applied to the team’s weekly implied total via two different calculation methods in the final two columns.1 The premise is that implied totals build in factors like matchup or home/road status, while applying scoring tendencies allow us to better define what that total is truly implying for each team. For more information, consult the Week 1 article or the original article in the series from the middle of last season. I also reviewed the accuracy of last season’s projections over the offseason, with positive results. Here are your divisional round implied team totals broken down by passing, rushing, kicking, and DST scoring.
  1. The first averages the offensive and defensive rates, while the second squares the difference between each rate and the league average, combines them, divides by two, and finds the square root, similar to the process for calculating standard deviation. This emphasizes teams with substantially higher or lower rates than league average.  (back)

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By Ben Gretch | @YardsPerGretch | Archive

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