10 FanDuel Value Plays for Week 17
Over the course of the season I’ll look at each game utilizing recent trends, usage, opportunity, and performance to find potential FanDuel value plays.
But first, let’s do a quick recap of Week 16. My goal is to have at least 2x value in my cash picks and 3x value for GPPs on FanDuel.
I’m aiming for a 55 percent hit rate for cash picks (to beat the rake), and a minimum 20 percent hit rate for GPP picks (which is the typical GPP cash threshold).
Four of my seven cash picks hit last week (57.1 percent success rate) with a Bills stack that proved very profitable in Tyrod Taylor (4.15x) and Charles Clay (5.44x). None of my three GPP calls landed with Bilal Powell (1.29x) underperforming, Jordan Matthews (0.39x) looking injured, and targeting the wrong Cincinnati Bengal receiver in Tyler Body (0.66x).
That brings me to an overall record with a 56.3 percent success rate in cash picks and 18.9 percent success rate in GPPs.
Let’s dive into some value plays to pursue this week.
Week 17 FanDuel Value Plays
Blake Bortles ($7,600) – Cash
It’s been difficult to trust Blake Bortles and the Jaguars this season, but after seeing some signs of life last week, they make for an interesting chase for DFS purposes. The Colts secondary has struggled this season, ranking bottom-10 in completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They rank 27th in FootballOutsiders‘ Pass DVOA and have allowed ten opposing quarterbacks to score at least 15.2 FD points (2x cash value for Bortles). Bortles has scored eight total touchdowns over his last three matchups with the Colts and will likely be forced to pass in this game as six-point road dogs.
Tom Savage ($6,600) – Cash
The Titans are another defense that hasn’t found much success against opposing quarterbacks this season. Tennessee is giving up the sixth-most completions, second-most passing yards, and third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed multiple touchdowns in eight of the last ten games they’ve played. The Texans have already wrapped up the No. 4 spot in the AFC, but they may still try and see just how far Tom Savage can take them by testing him this week. Lamar Miller may be rested in this game and this team could lean heavily on Savage, who has yet to throw a passing touchdown this season. This is a game the Texans will likely coast through, but Savage should return cash game value with Miller out resting.
Mark Ingram ($6,100) – GPP
There is only one game this week with a game total that surpasses the 50-point mark, and it’s this New Orleans-Atlanta matchup that currently has a whopping 56.5-point game total. Mark Ingram‘s timeshare with Tim Hightower leaves both running backs at affordable value plays, but it’s Ingram that’s leading the backfield in snaps, touches, and fantasy points. Ingram is coming off an 18-90-2 stat line and takes on an Atlanta defense that has allowed seven running backs to eclipse 18.3 FD points (3x GPP value for Ingram). The Falcons rank 28th in run DVOA and have allowed 16 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. They’ve proven to be especially susceptible to receiving backs, allowing the most receptions and receiving yards to the position.
Darren Sproles ($5,500) – Cash
The Eagles have been hit by the injury bug at running back this season and were forced to put Ryan Mathews on Injured Reserve this week. It leaves the lion’s share of touches to Darren Sproles almost by default and we’ve seen him be incredibly productive on just a select number of touches. The Eagles will square off against the Cowboys in Week 17 where the Eagles are 3.5-point home favorites. Dallas has already locked up the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC meaning they could rest several starters at some point. The Cowboys aren’t a particularly plus matchup for Sproles, but he should be in for a heavy workload and provides a safe floor given the Eagles’ lack of other options at running back.
Zach Zenner ($4,500) – Cash
Zach Zenner truthers were out in full-force Monday night, watching their beloved South Dakota State Jackrabbit net 22.2 FD points against the Cowboys. If the Lions keep Theo Riddick sidelined in their final matchup, Zenner could be used to grind the clock and keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers‘ hands. The Packers defense has gone through a ton of injuries this season and their front-seven could be in for a long day with Zenner’s bruising style of running the ball.
Cameron Meredith ($5,800) – Cash
After watching Jordy Nelson put up a fantastic performance against this Vikings’ secondary out of the slot (9-154-2), Cameron Meredith should be next in line for this juicy matchup. Meredith runs the majority of his routes from the slot (49 percent) and should face Captain Munnerlyn, who is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per route defended, for the majority of his snaps. Meredith has averaged 11 targets per game and 18.4 FD points per game over his last three matchups.
Steve Smith ($5,800) – GPP
In what could be the last game of his career, I’m jumping on the narrative train surrounding Steve Smith in Week 17. Smith has scored in back-to-back games and the Ravens could force the ball in his direction this week. Smith moves around the formation quite a bit but draws two beatable matchups against Dre Kirkpatrick outside and Joshua Shaw in the slot. Smith’s potential for a heavy workload in what may be the final game of his career makes him someone worth targeting in GPPs.
Ted Ginn ($4,900) – GPP
Ted Ginn will likely run most of his routes on the outside against Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves III. Both corners have struggled, with Grimes allowing 0.27 fantasy points per route defended and Hargreaves 0.21 targets per route defended. Ginn has scored in four of his last six games and has a ceiling worth chasing as his price tag.
Coby Fleener ($4,800) – GPP
In his Week 3 matchup with the Falcons Coby Fleener had his best game of the season with a 7-109-1 stat line. The Falcons haven’t improved much against TEs over the course of the season, ranking bottom-ten in most receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns allowed to the position. That gives Fleener a ceiling that worth chasing.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($4,800) – Cash
Over his last five games, C.J. Fiedorowicz is averaging 7.8 targets — not a bad usage rate for a tight end that’s priced under $5k. If we filter the GLSP App over that time span, Fiedorowicz’ 9.3-point high projection would clear our 2x goal for cash consideration. Fiedorowicz cleared that mark in their previous matchup (12.8 FD points) when he went off for 4-48-1 in Week 4. Opponents are passing on the Titans 65.1 percent of the time — second-highest rate in the league — which could mean a good number of targets heading Fiedorowicz’s way once again.