10 DraftKings Value Plays for Week 17
I’ll look at each game utilizing recent trends, usage, opportunity, and performance to find potential DraftKings value plays.
First, let’s do a quick recap of Week 16. My goal is to have at least a 3x value in cash picks and 4x value for GPPs on DraftKings. We’re aiming for a 55 percent hit rate for cash picks (to beat the rake), and a minimum 20 percent hit rate for GPP picks (which is the typical GPP cash threshold).
I hit on two of my six cash game picks last week (33.3 percent success rate) with Matt Barkley (3.78x) and Charles Clay (8.91x) paving the way. Mark Ingram was my only GPP success out of four picks (25 percent success rate), reaching 5.75x value.
Overall that brings my record to a 43.2 percent success rate in cash picks and 30.2 percent success rate in GPPs on the season.
Let’s dive into Week 17 and find some value plays to pursue on DraftKings this week.
Week 17 DraftKings Value Plays
Matthew Stafford ($6,000) – Cash
A win for the Lions gives them the NFC North title and a wild card game at home. Matthew Stafford should be a full-go, and Green Bay is allowing the third-most passing yards, third-most passing touchdowns, and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Eight of their opponents have hit the 300-yard mark (and three-point bonus) and seven of their last eight opponents have scored multiple touchdowns.
Blake Bortles ($5,600) – GPP
I wrote about Blake Bortles as a FanDuel Value Play and like him here as well.
Tevin Coleman ($5,100) – GPP
The Falcons are playing as 6.5-point home favorites in this week’s highest projected scoring game (56.5-point game total). Tevin Coleman‘s inconsistent volume puts him more in tournament consideration over cash, but the matchup is against a weak run defense. The Saints rank 20th in FootballOutsiders‘ Run DVOA and have allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns and third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If Atlanta jumps out to an early lead at home, we could see a lot of Coleman over Devonta Freeman in the second half.
Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,900) – Cash
Jacquizz Rodgers will get the lead back duties by default in a game Tampa Bay needs to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. When Rodgers took over as the lead back earlier this season, he averaged 18.7 DK points in his three starts. The Panthers have allowed nine running backs to clear at least 14.7 points (3x cash value) this season – an attainable goal for Rodgers and his projected touches.
Darren Sproles ($4,000) – GPP
I wrote about Darren Sproles as someone to target in my FanDuel Value Plays and also like him here with DK’s PPR scoring.
Steve Smith ($4,900) – GPP
Steve Smith is someone I’m targeting on both sites this week, as outlined in my FanDuel Value Plays.
Marqise Lee ($4,600) – Cash
Over his last six games, Marqise Lee has either scored a touchdown or surpassed 100 receiving yards five times. He’s emerged as a reliable value play option over that span averaging 13.3 fantasy points and takes on a vulnerable Colts’ secondary this week. He’ll run most of his routes against Rashaan Melvin, who’s being targeted by opposing quarterbacks on 22 percent of his routes in coverage. The Colts rank 27th in Pass DVOA and have allowed at least 13.8 fantasy points (3x cash value for Lee) to 12 different receivers this season. Lee’s scoring consistency puts him in play for cash consideration in a game interim head coach Doug Marrone will want to win as part of his head coaching audition.
Anquan Boldin ($4,100) – Cash
The Packers have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, the most receiving touchdowns, and second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Slot receivers have had their way; five of them have scored at least 20 DK points. Anquan Boldin has been inconsistent fantasy-wise for much of this season, but he’s scored seven touchdowns including a score against Green Bay in their earlier matchup.
Martellus Bennett ($3,900) – GPP
The Patriots need to win at Miami to lock up the top seed in the AFC. Martellus Bennett should be a focal point of their offense since the Dolphins struggling defending tight ends. Miami is allowing the fifth-most receiving touchdowns, eighth-most fantasy points, and rank 22nd in DVOA against opposing tight ends. When Bennett played Miami in Week 2 earlier this season, he went off for a 5-114-1 stat line. Bennett has scored in two of his last three games and should be a mismatch once again.
Eric Ebron ($3,600) – Cash
This is a game I’ll have heavy exposure to in both cash and tournaments. The Packers are allowing the ninth-most receptions, eighth-most receiving yards, and have allowed at least 10.8 DK points (3x cash value for Ebron) to eight different tight ends. Ebron hasn’t scored since Week 1, but after coming off a 12-target game last week, he could be in for some positive touchdown regression in a favorable matchup.