10 DraftKings Value Plays for Week 16
Over the course of the season, I’ll look at each game utilizing recent trends, usage, opportunity, and performance to find potential value players in great matchups.
First, let’s do a quick recap of Week 15. My goal is to have at least a 3x value in cash picks and 4x value for GPPs on DraftKings. We’re aiming for a 55 percent hit rate for cash picks (to beat the rake), and a minimum 20 percent hit rate for GPP picks (which is the typical GPP cash threshold).
In an effort for transparency, last week was quite easily my worst week assessing the NFL landscape. I missed the 3x threshold on all six of my cash game picks. Four of the six had at least 2x value so they weren’t complete duds, but they still missed our target. Cameron Brate (4.82x) was my lone GPP success out of my four tournament picks (25 percent success rate).
Overall that brings my record to a 44.0 percent success rate in cash picks and 30.6 percent success rate in GPPs on the season.
Without further ado, time to shake off the rust and dive into Week 16.
Week 16 DraftKings Value Plays
Matthew Stafford ($6,100) – GPP
The Cowboys defense ranks sixth in Run DVOA, but 22nd against the pass. Opposing offenses are passing the ball 66.4 percent of the time against this funnel defense, highest in the league. Matthew Stafford has rarely been a ceiling play (just three 300-yard games) and is coming off a game without throwing a touchdown, but the gameplan here will likely focus on short to intermediate passes where Dallas has struggled. Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, and Anquan Boldin (to a lesser degree) are all in great spots this week to attack the middle of this Dallas defense. The Cowboys have allowed the 11th-most passing touchdowns this season (23) and have given up a couple ceiling quarterback games — Kirk Cousins (33.2) and Ben Roethlisberger (31.4) — to make Stafford an intriguing tournament option that could go overlooked.
Matt Barkley ($5,000) – Cash
I wrote about Matt Barkley as someone I’m targeting as a FanDuel Value Play and like him here as well.
Ty Montgomery ($5,900) – Cash
While it may feel like point chasing, Ty Montgomery is in another nice spot this week to pursue using him once again. The Vikings have allowed two 100-yard rushers in their past five games and a 20-86-1 stat line to Ezekiel Elliott in Week 13. Montgomery is coming off a career-high game in snaps, carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. He also carries significant receiving upside out of the backfield and should see plenty of looks playing at home as seven-point favorites.
Kenneth Farrow ($5,000) – Cash
I wrote about Kenneth Farrow as a great play in my FanDuel Value Plays and like his pricing on DK just as much. Just be sure to monitor updates on Melvin Gordon.
Mark Ingram ($4,400) – GPP
Tim Hightower is certainly a concern in this offense, but Mark Ingram is priced at the lowest he’s been all year. Hightower scored twice last week, but Ingram out-snapped (41 to 27), out-touched (19 to 14), and out-gained (92 to 48) him, and was clearly the more involved back. Ingram has seen more touches inside the opponents’ 20-yard line (36 to 28) and 10-yard line (20 to 16), and last week’s touchdowns aren’t necessarily indicative of the Saints declaring a “goal line” back. Tampa Bay ranks bottom-10 in Run DVOA and allowed Ezekiel Elliott a 23-159-1 stat line and Melvin Gordon a 17-84-1 line in two of the past three weeks.
Malcolm Mitchell ($5,100) – GPP
Excluding last week’s game against Denver, Malcolm Mitchell has scored four touchdowns in his last four games while averaging 17.8 fantasy points. Danny Amendola has missed the last two games with an ankle injury (and could miss more), and Mitchell has led all Patriots skill position players in snaps over that period. High touchdown equity and heavy snaps equates to a player I’m very interested in rostering in with the Patriots having the highest team total of the week (30 points). Mitchell will likely run most of his routes this week against Marcus Williams, who’s allowing 0.38 fantasy points per route in coverage and being targeted on 21 percent of his routes defended — both highest rates among the Jets’ corners. Tom Brady-Malcolm Mitchell stacks could prove to be a very profitable one this week if the Patriots are to live up to their high team total.
Jordan Matthews ($5,100) – GPP (TNF)
I wrote about Jordan Matthews as someone to target in my FanDuel Value Plays and like him here with DK’s PPR scoring.
Pierre Garcon ($4,900) – Cash
Pierre Garcon served us well last week as a FanDuel Value Play and I’ve got no problems double dipping at his price tag. Garcon leads all Redskins receivers in targets over the past seven weeks, averaging 7.7 per game and 15.5 DK points over that span. The Bears have allowed the tenth-most receptions to opposing wideouts, which should spell good news for Garcon as he lines up for most of his routes on the outside against Cre’von LeBlanc and Tracy Porter. Neither have performed spectacularly and Porter has been the worse of the two in coverage allowing 0.24 fantasy points per route defended. This may be the last time we get Garcon at such a great value.
Cameron Brate ($3,900) – Cash
Cameron Brate has been electric as of late, emerging as the Buccaneers’ main second target behind Mike Evans. Brate has scored five times over the last eight weeks, and leads the team in red zone targets and red zone touchdowns over that span. In fact, only Jordy Nelson has more red zone touchdowns than Brate this season. Brate gets to go against a Saints defense that is allowing the seventh-most red zone trips per game to opposing offenses (3.4) and ranks 25th in DVOA against opposing tight ends. This game has a massive 52-point game total which should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for Brate and the Bucs.
Charles Clay ($3,200) – Cash
Charles Clay priced at just $3,200 makes him someone I’m targeting as a FanDuel Value Play and one on DraftKings, too.