Dynasty

Projecting the 2017 Rookie Draft First Round and Where They Fit in the Dynasty Top 100

Recently I published my midseason dynasty rankings, looking at the top 50 in Part 1 and 51 to 100 in Part 2. Many leagues currently have a moratorium on trades, but others have no such limitations. Our evaluations of players likely to go in the 2017 NFL draft are obviously preliminary, but making informed trades requires some sense of future value. In Part 3, I’ll provide my initial first-round projection for next summer’s rookie drafts and also slot them into the top 100.

Evaluators have many different methodologies for projecting players. We will revisit and expand on our draft research this offseason, but my WR evaluations largely rest on final season market share, breakout age, draft status, and whether a player declared early. RB evaluations are based on receiving ability, speed, and draft status.

I follow the work of respected draft experts on many sites to get a sense of where players might go in upcoming drafts. (One good example is a recent piece by SI’s Chris Burke that seemed to reflect both scouting opinion and on-field results.) Obviously many unknowns exist at this time.

1.01 Dalvin Cook

A threat to go in the first 10 picks of the reality draft next spring, Cook could debut in the dynasty top 10. He continues to climb in the ACC record book with a sterling body of work that contains 4,166 rushing yards, 46 total touchdowns, and 73 receptions. He burst on the scene immediately as a freshman with 1,211 yards from scrimmage and hasn’t slowed down.

1.02 JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster has endured an odd, injury-plagued campaign where he struggled before Sam Darnold was inserted at quarterback. He then exploded with two 100-yard, 3-TD games against the Arizona schools, but back spasms and blowout victories have kept him from rolling up the stats over the last month. A controversial final year could see him go as late as the fourth WR drafted.

A top recruit from the 2014 class, Smith-Schuster immediately impressed with 700 yards as a true freshman opposite first-round pick Nelson Agholor. He backed that up with 1,454 yards and 10 TDs as a sophomore. This age-adjusted production puts him well ahead of Mike Williams and John Ross.

1.03 Corey Davis

Davis is going to go down as one of the better college players ever.1 Davis posted 941 yards and six TDs as a freshman, more impressive numbers when you realize that Western Michigan threw for barely over 2,500 yards and managed 12 passing TDs. That season landed him at No. 6 on the list of most precocious receiving seasons of the last decade. He followed that up with 1,408 yards and 15 of his team’s 26 TDs. After an injury-plagued junior campaign with only 1,429 yards, he’s rebounded as a senior with 1,202 yards in 11 games and 16 of his team’s 27 TDs. Blessed with an alpha receiver frame, Davis could solidify himself in the first round with a solid combine.

1.04 Leonard Fournette

Fournette inspires strong feelings in draftniks. Many consider him to be the clear No. 1 prospect in a loaded draft. Others are more circumspect, wondering about the way his traits will translate and concerned about chronic injuries.

The 6-foot-1, 230-pound specimen recorded 2,206 yards from scrimmage as a sophomore after an elite freshman season. Games like his 16-carry, 284-yard, 4-TD demolition of Mississippi help demonstrate the physical dominance that has most draft observers projecting him to follow Ezekiel Elliott as a top-10 reality pick.

1.05 Christian McCaffrey

After re-writing the record books with 2,664 yards from scrimmage in 2015 amid what should have been an easy Heisman win, McCaffrey has suffered through injuries and a Stanford slump in 2016. Although his raw stats are down, McCaffrey has actually raised his yards per carry to 6.3 this season and managed 14 TDs on a low-scoring Cardinal squad.

With 98 receptions and counting, we could be looking at a Le’Veon Bell type weapon in PPR leagues.

1.06 Mike Williams

Among the three big-bodied headliners at WR, Williams is the flashiest and frequently leapfrogs the other two in scouting-based evaluations. He’s also tricky for the market share approach due to the players with whom he shares receiving responsibilities at Clemson. Unlike Smith-Schuster and Davis, he didn’t make a splash as a freshman, but that’s not a surprise playing behind Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant. Of course, he then caught fewer passes and scored fewer TDs than fellow draft prospect Artavis Scott in 2014.2

After losing his junior season to injury, he’s roared back with 1,014 yards in 11 games in 2016. Unfortunately, that pales when placed in context. He’s only responsible for 28 percent of the receiving yards and has pulled in only seven of 32 TDs, trailing teammate Deon Cain in that category.

Most of this will be moot if Williams torches the combine and goes in the first 15 picks of the reality draft, but keep in mind that most first-round busts of recent vintage come in toward the bottom of the market share spectrum.

1.07 Royce Freeman

Caught in the midst of Oregon’s freefall and hampered by injuries, Freeman’s raw output has slipped as a junior. He’s still averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has 20 receptions. The Duck roared to over 3,700 yards from scrimmage in his first two seasons and isn’t allergic to the receiving game with 62 career catches. At 5-foot-11, 230 pounds and with some questions about his speed, it’s possible he falls into the Jeremy Hill/Carlos Hyde tier. His elite age-adjusted numbers would suggest something more.

1.08 Nick Chubb

When Todd Gurley went down in 2014, true freshman Chubb replicated the same freakish level of explosion with 1,547 yards on 7.1 yards per carry. Throw in 18 impressive receptions and Chubb hit 1,760 yards from scrimmage and 16 TDs. He upped his efficiency to an absurd 8.1 yards per carry in an injury-shortened sophomore campaign that saw him play in only six contests. That foreshadowed a 2016 season that’s become a slog. He’s doubled his carries from 92 to 185 and only managed 153 more yards. There’s still time to rehabilitate his image during the pre-draft portion.

1.09 Courtland Sutton

It’s a little surprising that Sutton isn’t generating more enthusiasm. The SMU star quickly emerged with a 49-863-9 line in his redshirt freshman season, strong numbers in a poor passing offense. His 2016 market share numbers (42 percent yardage, 47 percent TDs) dwarf those of Mike Williams and John Ross, and at 6-foot-4, he sports a No. 1 wide receiver body.

1.10 D’Onta Foreman

Foreman is a late-bloomer with a likely one-dimensional skillset, but the 249-pounder’s junior season has been remarkable. Having racked up at least 100 yards rushing in every game, Foreman reached the 250-yard mark in three of his last five contests.

1.11 Samaje Perine

Perine is going in the opposite direction, but almost anything would have been a disappointment after a freshman season with 1,712 yards and 21 TDs. His 2016 has been marred by injuries, but he’s expected to be an elite early-down hammer in the NFL at 235 pounds.

1.12 John Ross

The buzz around Ross suggests he’ll be a first-round pick this spring, but his size (173 pounds) and resume don’t quite comply. Ross made his main contributions on special teams during his first two seasons (579 total receiving yards) and missed his third due to injury. Currently he sits at 33 percent of his team’s receiving yards, solid numbers but not the level that would eliminate concerns. On the other hand, he’s scoring TDs at a frantic pace, and his exploits could see him drafted not long after Mike Williams.

Where Do They Fall?

I’ve made a few adjustments to the dynasty rankings based on recent developments and with an eye to promoting high-vol players. This is a projection of where the 2017 rookies will slot in after next year’s draft. Some of these valuations may be high, but the top 100 is littered with players from the 2015 and 2016 classes, many of whom have lesser resumes and/or have yet to perform at the NFL level.3 Young players tend go early in startup drafts and hold their value over the course of the first year. (Whether they deserve those rankings is another question.)

Ranking Player POS
1 David Johnson RB
2 Amari Cooper WR
3 Odell Beckham WR
4 Mike Evans WR
5 Antonio Brown WR
6 Ezekiel Elliott RB
7 Le’Veon Bell RB
8 Julio Jones WR
9 A.J. Green WR
10 Rob Gronkowski TE
11 Keenan Allen WR
12 Melvin Gordon RB
1.01 Dalvin Cook RB
13 Stefon Diggs WR
14 Dez Bryant WR
15 Sammy Watkins WR
16 DeAndre Hopkins WR
17 Allen Robinson WR
18 TY Hilton WR
19 Todd Gurley RB
20 Brandin Cooks WR
21 Corey Coleman WR
22 Jordan Reed TE
1.02 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR
1.03 Corey Davis WR
1.04 Leonard Fournette RB
1.05 Christian McCaffrey RB
23 Jay Ajayi RB
24 Devonta Freeman RB
25 Jarvis Landry WR
26 Michael Thomas WR
27 Lamar Miller RB
28 Tevin Coleman RB
29 Eric Ebron TE
30 Travis Kelce TE
31 Jordan Matthews WR
32 Randall Cobb WR
33 Donte Moncrief WR
34 DeMarco Murray RB
1.06 Mike Williams WR
35 LeSean McCoy RB
36 Jamison Crowder WR
37 Greg Olsen TE
38 Demaryius Thomas WR
39 Terrelle Pryor WR
40 Tyler Eifert TE
1.07 Royce Freeman RB
41 C.J. Prosise RB
42 Kelvin Benjamin WR
43 Andrew Luck QB
1.08 Nick Chubb RB
44 Hunter Henry TE
45 Jordy Nelson WR
46 Davante Adams WR
47 Thomas Rawls RB
48 Willie Snead WR
49 Doug Baldwin WR
50 Tyler Boyd WR
51 Will Fuller WR
52 Sterling Shepard WR
53 Derrick Henry RB
54 Kevin White WR
55 Josh Doctson WR
56 Aaron Rodgers QB
57 Marcus Mariota QB
58 DeVante Parker WR
59 Emmanuel Sanders WR
1.09 Courtland Sutton WR
60 Delanie Walker TE
61 Michael Crabtree WR
62 Alshon Jeffery WR
63 Adrian Peterson RB
64 Doug Martin RB
65 Jeremy Hill RB
66 Jordan Howard RB
67 Carlos Hyde RB
68 Golden Tate WR
69 Cam Newton QB
70 Russell Wilson QB
71 Matt Ryan QB
1.10 D’Onta Foreman RB
1.11 Samaje Perine RB
72 Brandon Marshall WR
73 Jimmy Graham TE
74 Tyreek Hill WR
75 Zach Ertz TE
76 Tom Brady QB
77 Drew Brees QB
78 Tajae Sharpe WR
79 Dion Lewis RB
80 Spencer Ware RB
81 Derek Carr QB
82 Dak Prescott QB
1.12 John Ross WR
83 Jeremy Maclin WR
84 Marvin Jones WR
85 Breshad Perriman WR
86 Gio Bernard RB
87 Marqise Lee WR
88 Laquon Treadwell WR
89 Matthew Stafford QB
90 Jamaal Charles RB
91 Coby Fleener TE
92 Julian Edelman WR
93 Kenny Britt WR
94 Tyler Lockett WR
95 Matt Forte RB
96 Ameer Abdullah RB
97 Tyrell Williams WR
98 Mark Ingram RB
99 Theo Riddick RB
100 Latavius Murray RB

Let me know how you would rank the prospects, which players you consider to be the most glaring omissions, and where you’d place them compared to current veterans.

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  1. Think Stefon Diggs with raw production or Tyler Boyd with size.  (back)
  2. Williams’ superiority was obvious in yards per catch.  (back)
  3. For example, I currently have 10 rookies in the first 53 players.  (back)
By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

Comments   Add comment

  1. Eric says:

    Excellent work as usual Shawn. Ive been interested in how I should value 2017 picks with regards to current players and this really helped put things in perspective.

    The one player on your list that really stands out is Alshon Jeffrey. Why so low on him? Injuries? Situation? Work Ethic? Ive been trying to buy low on him but it seems most owners I deal with want around 2 1sts worth of value which has been too steep for me. Im wondering if he is even worth pursuing.

    On the opposite side of the spectrum Ive been snatching up Diggs on the cheap everywhere. Usually for late 1sts. The highest price I paid was Cobb. I think you and Rotoviz have been way ahead of the dynasty community in properly valuing him.

    Thanks again for your insight.

  2. Austin says:

    The guy that surprises me is Tyrell Williams. I traded to get him with the 1.11 and thought I got good value.

  3. Jake B says:

    @FF_Contrarian

    Ancient article, I know. You have any expanded thoughts on AP? DFL December mocks have him around 125.

    Bought an orphan needing a viable RB starter for 2017. Worth giving up the 2.05 to take a flyer on him?

  4. Jake B says:

    @ff_contrarian

    Thasks again.

    The offeror also tossed out Yeldon for AP in lieu of the 2.05.

    More or less comfortable with that?

    I'm really but sure what to make of Yeldon. Ivory busting helped, but that's barely an NFL offense.

  5. Jake B says:

    @FF_Contrarian ---

    I wound up eeking out AP & a 2018 3rd rounder for Yeldon. Very happy.

    Your second point on emphasizing value is a timely one. This orphan I picked up is in a superflex, and I'm rocking Brock O and Carson Palmer as my only viable QBs. What feelers I've sent out for upgrades give me the impression that I'll have to overpay big time if I want to have even 1 plug and play option. I've floated the 1.05 with nary a glimmer of hope.

    It's about time I learned to be patient.

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