Dynasty

Projecting the 2017 Rookie Draft First Round and Where They Fit in the Dynasty Top 100

Recently I published my midseason dynasty rankings, looking at the top 50 in Part 1 and 51 to 100 in Part 2. Many leagues currently have a moratorium on trades, but others have no such limitations. Our evaluations of players likely to go in the 2017 NFL draft are obviously preliminary, but making informed trades requires some sense of future value. In Part 3, I’ll provide my initial first-round projection for next summer’s rookie drafts and also slot them into the top 100. Evaluators have many different methodologies for projecting players. We will revisit and expand on our draft research this offseason, but my WR evaluations largely rest on final season market share, breakout age, draft status, and whether a player declared early. RB evaluations are based on receiving ability, speed, and draft status. I follow the work of respected draft experts on many sites to get a sense of where players might go in upcoming drafts. (One good example is a recent piece by SI’s Chris Burke that seemed to reflect both scouting opinion and on-field results.) Obviously many unknowns exist at this time.

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

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  1. Eric says:

    Excellent work as usual Shawn. Ive been interested in how I should value 2017 picks with regards to current players and this really helped put things in perspective.

    The one player on your list that really stands out is Alshon Jeffrey. Why so low on him? Injuries? Situation? Work Ethic? Ive been trying to buy low on him but it seems most owners I deal with want around 2 1sts worth of value which has been too steep for me. Im wondering if he is even worth pursuing.

    On the opposite side of the spectrum Ive been snatching up Diggs on the cheap everywhere. Usually for late 1sts. The highest price I paid was Cobb. I think you and Rotoviz have been way ahead of the dynasty community in properly valuing him.

    Thanks again for your insight.

  2. Austin says:

    The guy that surprises me is Tyrell Williams. I traded to get him with the 1.11 and thought I got good value.

  3. Jake B says:

    @FF_Contrarian ---

    I wound up eeking out AP & a 2018 3rd rounder for Yeldon. Very happy.

    Your second point on emphasizing value is a timely one. This orphan I picked up is in a superflex, and I'm rocking Brock O and Carson Palmer as my only viable QBs. What feelers I've sent out for upgrades give me the impression that I'll have to overpay big time if I want to have even 1 plug and play option. I've floated the 1.05 with nary a glimmer of hope.

    It's about time I learned to be patient.

  4. JS56 says:

    This is a great way to think about the draft picks in the context . When is the update coming? Specifically, how should I think about Dez Bryant?

  5. Vince says:

    Excellent work.
    Really looking forward for that update !

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