Week 10 Air Yards Buy Low Receivers

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.


Air yards give us a complete view of a wide receiver’s game. They show us the volume of yards that are thrown at a guy, the amount of those yards he caught, and how many yards after the catch he created on passes he did catch.

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By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive

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  1. Last week’s Buy Low model had Allen Robinson at the top. He is no longer listed in this week’s edition because his production has caught up with his volume.

    About damn time! Still got TPryor and Kelvim on that list. Perhaps Kelvin gets off the schneid against NO this week? Still not hopeful. In one league (I know no one cares about my fantasy team), I have 4 WRs for three spots: AJ, ARob, TPryor and Kelvin. TPryor will be sitting on the bench.

    Also, your WOPR stat fails to consider Alshon's PED2B ratio (Performance Enhancing Drugs to Blood ratio). I think he will be greatly under-performing for the next 4 weeks or so.

  2. Dennis says:

    @BenGretch recently had this to say on this one:

    The Colts were off this week, but Donte Moncrief has led them in targets since returning from his shoulder injury. T.Y. Hilton was second in the NFL in targets/game over the season’s first seven weeks, and while Moncrief would certainly be expected to put a dent in that, it’s hard to believe this is more than a minor two-game blip. Hilton is an interesting buy option, against the recent trend.

    and rotoviz radio's preseason interview with Zak Keefer talks about how when 'Crief and Ty are both in practice, Luck still loves TY most.

  3. I don't, just simply because Quinton Patton is #4 on the buy low chart, which takes into account recent volume.

    @mateoloco I don't think those deals are really much more than shuffling deck chairs (not saying you are going down like the Titanic, just that the moves are too close to handicap either way).

    I'm fine with giving up WR talent for RBs this late in the season. Now is the time to gamble if you want to win.

    @JollyG804 Dennis, it's helped me a ton as well. Thanks for letting me know. Last week Rudolph was 3rd in WOPR for TEs. He's still a very strong play ROS.

    @PaulC I agree with Jolly/Dennis' take. TY will be fine.

    @NewJerichoMan Between Kelvin and Pryor I think you might be making the wrong call - the question is if Benjamin cost himself looks with his fumble last week. Pryor has been a solid rock of volume all season no matter what changed in the offense. Remember, bad teams throw the ball too.

  4. Hey @friscojosh, seems to me that TY and Pryor are a wash based on your data. Same air yards, targets, etc (TY RACR is very high).. I am also considering that I can trade away TY and get Pryor + RB in return. In essence, I shuffled WRs but got discount on RB.. Thoughts? this is the same thing that @mateoloco is trying to do I believe. For example, I can trade TY + GIO for Prosise + Pryor. I think the promise may be an upgrade over gio.

  5. Trey says:

    Yea, I was looking into him l, but already start Miller. It would be nice if they'd get him a little
    More involved in the passing game to get a few cheap points.

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