Advice

Week 10 Air Yards Buy Low Receivers

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.

AIR YARDS EXPLAINED

Air yards give us a complete view of a wide receiver’s game. They show us the volume of yards that are thrown at a guy, the amount of those yards he caught, and how many yards after the catch he created on passes he did catch.

Three Week Buy Low Model

Last week’s Buy Low model had Allen Robinson at the top. He is no longer listed in this week’s edition because his production has caught up with his volume.

This may sound like a victory lap, but it really isn’t. The hardest thing to do in the face of poor performances is to keep believing that good things are around the corner. I share these success stores because volume truly, objectively, is the best tool we have available to guide our decisions.

As an example, one way to think about buying low is to look at this crude graph I whipped up:

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Imagine this is a WR. The points he scores exhibit variance from week to week. Points in a week are the yellow and green circles. The red line is a smoother – basically an advanced form of a moving average.

Assuming this fictional WR is getting constant volume, what the buy low model says is that we should expect an increase in points at some point in the future. An important point is we can’t say exactly when this increase will occur. If you look at the buy low table below, on a per-game basis this spike might only be projected at 1 PPG or less. Still, in terms of how WRs actually score, what the model is telling us is that a “big game” is probably coming in the near future (one of the green dots in the fake graph).

What can go wrong with the model? Well, a guy could get less volume. This is always possible because NFL teams, even terrible ones, exhibit high variance in air yards from week to week. The model attempts to account for this by modeling target share and market share of air yards, but if Brock Osweiler only passes for 125 air yards, DeAndre Hopkins is still going to have a shit day in fantasy.

The important thing to realize is that a bad week of passing by a team or quarterback does not mean that another bad week of passing is probable, or even likely.

The receiver could also have another down game – another yellow dot. If we are playing the percentages we’re right to roster these guys even if this happens. Volume leads inexorably to fantasy production. Nothing is certain, but chasing volume is one of the highest expected value plays we can make.

Finally, one other thing to note. What do we do when a guy is no longer a buy low? Do we sell? Air yards is almost completely silent on this. If a guy is getting volume, I would argue that you should never fade him no matter how much he is outproducing that volume. That receiver is very likely #good at football despite whatever regression is coming his way. Just enjoy the ride.

full_name position comp_air_yds yac incomp_air_yds air_yds ms_air_yds predict actual_ppr diff
Terrelle Pryor WR 49.7 15.7 100.0 149.7 0.47 15.1 13.9 1.3
Michael Crabtree WR 34.5 33.0 92.0 126.5 0.34 13.9 11.8 2.2
Kelvin Benjamin WR 48.3 29.3 50.0 98.3 0.31 13.5 12.4 1.0
Quinton Patton WR 40.0 39.5 76.5 116.5 0.42 12.9 12.4 0.5
Emmanuel Sanders WR 45.7 10.7 90.7 136.3 0.38 12.2 10.3 1.9
Zach Miller TE 23.0 37.0 28.5 51.5 0.18 11.9 11.5 0.4
DeAndre Hopkins WR 31.0 15.0 79.0 110.0 0.51 11.7 9.1 2.6
Richard Rodgers TE 34.0 11.5 48.5 82.5 0.13 10.9 9.6 1.3
Dontrelle Inman WR 44.0 13.0 27.7 71.7 0.25 10.8 10.7 0.1
Brandon Marshall WR 27.3 15.3 34.3 61.7 0.25 10.5 8.9 1.6
DeVante Parker WR 28.0 27.5 30.0 58.0 0.35 10.4 9.1 1.3
Robby Anderson WR 34.0 15.7 52.7 86.7 0.35 9.7 8.3 1.4
Greg Olsen TE 32.3 1.7 33.0 65.3 0.21 9.7 9.1 0.6
T.Y. Hilton WR 40.0 11.0 31.0 71.0 0.26 9.5 8.6 0.9
Jack Doyle TE 34.0 14.5 20.0 54.0 0.20 9.5 8.4 1.2
Quincy Enunwa WR 24.3 17.3 43.7 68.0 0.28 9.2 8.2 1.1
Will Tye TE 26.5 16.5 15.5 42.0 0.14 9.2 8.8 0.4
Bryce Treggs WR 61.0 8.0 74.0 135.0 0.14 9.1 8.9 0.2
Jarvis Landry WR 19.5 23.5 25.5 45.0 0.27 8.9 8.8 0.1
Lance Kendricks TE 18.0 27.0 7.5 25.5 0.09 8.7 8.5 0.2
Jermaine Kearse WR 32.3 7.3 55.7 88.0 0.32 8.7 6.6 2.0
DeSean Jackson WR 41.0 7.0 76.0 117.0 0.14 8.7 7.8 0.9
Marvin Jones WR 14.5 4.5 92.0 106.5 0.44 8.6 3.9 4.7
Marqise Lee WR 39.3 12.3 48.0 87.3 0.21 8.3 8.2 0.2
Dorial Green-Beckham WR 21.0 6.5 59.0 80.0 0.17 8.2 5.3 2.9

Just a couple general notes this week.

  • It’s late in the season. Target players who have a high ROS predict like Terrelle Pryor, Michael Crabtree, Kelvin Benjamin and DeAndre Hopkins. There’s really no time left to take gambles on guys predicted for less than nine points per game. I’ve included a few extra here though for deeper leagues.
  • Players like Marvin Jones are underperforming their volume, but their volume still only projects for marginal ROS production. I would not hesitate to cut bait/sell low on these players if you need to pick up better options for your playoff run.

Year to date air yards data

Below is every receiver who has been targeted this year, sorted by Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). WOPR is a great single number encapsulation of a receiver’s opportunity. It is very predictive of future PPR and standard fantasy points. Enjoy!

full_namepositionteamrectartdyaccomp_airincomp_airair_yardsrec_yardsrush_yardsattemptsgamesteam_air_ydsms_air_ydsayptracrcatch_ratetarget_sharewopr
A.J. GreenWRCIN669942587065241230964099927210.4512.40.780.670.310.78
Mike EvansWRTB59106810670584915548110106934100.4614.70.520.560.300.77
Terrelle PryorWRCLE519241474918221313627211011027100.4814.30.480.550.280.76
Julio JonesWRATL61975328777651142811050971032700.4414.70.770.630.280.73
Odell BeckhamWRNYG549162914825481030773092925880.4011.30.750.590.260.67
DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU458931093736441017482089927910.3611.40.470.510.270.67
Brandon MarshallWRNYJ4492215644462510696000921027940.3811.60.560.480.270.67
Emmanuel SandersWRDEN5495314852058111016680951029850.3711.60.610.570.270.67
Antonio BrownWRPIT69104727355847810368319104931470.3310.00.800.660.280.66
T.Y. HiltonWRIND529041876044581062791090927990.3811.80.740.580.260.65
Allen RobinsonWRJAC48945984517741225549095931800.3913.00.450.510.250.64
Jarvis LandryWRMIA557713003601905506601878920780.267.11.200.710.290.62
Jordy NelsonWRGB509182054306941124635091931750.3512.40.560.550.240.61
Amari CooperWROAK58882309534367901843088926550.3410.20.940.660.250.61
Stefon DiggsWRMIN618122444662617277101081822510.329.00.980.750.260.61
Jordan MatthewsWRPHI48753179401395796580076923280.3410.60.730.640.240.60
Michael CrabtreeWROAK49816136460413873596082926550.3310.80.680.600.230.57
Marvin JonesWRDET37644197464383847661364921920.3913.20.780.580.200.57
Alshon JefferyWRCHI40721168462449911630072927120.3412.70.690.560.220.57
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN558552154633988616780851029850.2910.10.790.650.240.57
Julian EdelmanWRNE487212032542985524573972922320.257.70.830.670.260.56
Greg OlsenTECAR50783219493394887712078931200.2811.40.800.640.240.55
Larry FitzgeraldWRARI6910052424493548036911100937340.228.00.860.690.270.55
Jeremy KerleyWRSF40703115309291600424070923730.258.60.710.570.250.55
Kelvin BenjaminWRCAR43764156472400872627077931200.2811.50.720.570.230.54
Kenny BrittWRLA44643199489272761693065923680.3211.90.910.690.200.53
Golden TateWRDET49742359165348513513476921920.236.91.000.660.230.51
Dez BryantWRDAL2250352346413759398050622160.3415.20.520.440.180.51
Tavon AustinWRLA397321881473775243357373923680.227.20.640.530.230.50
Mike WallaceWRBAL437242694044828866731972930030.3012.30.760.600.190.49
Robert WoodsWRBUF3957191361279640452657825890.2511.20.710.680.210.49
Brandin CooksWRNO446762534414278686941967927900.3113.00.800.660.180.49
Davante AdamsWRGB50746240381452833621074931750.2611.30.750.680.200.48
Tyrell WilliamsWRSD437142944263778037200731029370.2711.30.900.610.190.48
Jason WittenTEDAL44632197286163449483063922160.207.11.080.700.220.48
Kyle RudolphTEMIN37665170241252493392067922510.227.50.800.560.210.47
Doug BaldwinWRSEA50655245384142526629-465924250.228.11.200.770.210.46
DeVante ParkerWRMIA30481132274290564406048820780.2711.80.720.630.180.46
Tajae SharpeWRTEN30581683174797963851581030130.2613.70.480.520.180.46
Cole BeasleyWRDAL48614251281137418532762922160.196.91.270.790.220.46
Will FullerWRHOU25512149223627850372051727910.3016.70.440.490.160.45
Jeremy MaclinWRKC30562107269382651376-157823850.2711.60.580.540.170.45
Quincy EnunwaWRNYJ386932412932735665340691027940.208.20.940.550.200.44
Delanie WalkerTETEN42625226350254604571363930130.209.70.950.680.190.43
Jimmy GrahamTESEA42583198395126521593059924250.219.01.140.720.190.43
Michael ThomasWRNO51695268388207595613072927900.218.61.030.740.180.42
Pierre GarconWRWAS42651155320310630477066929880.219.70.760.650.180.42
Rishard MatthewsWRTEN36536983853367214830531030130.2413.60.670.680.170.42
Sterling ShepardWRNYG39614146280287567426061925880.229.30.750.640.170.41
DeSean JacksonWRWAS30561112304444748416056829880.2513.40.560.540.160.41
Travis BenjaminWRSD39593182332377709514-160929370.2412.00.720.660.160.41
Allen HurnsWRJAC33672193263386649456067931800.209.70.700.490.180.41
Kenny StillsWRMIA19364107270333603375037920780.2916.80.620.530.140.41
Quinton PattonWRSF28490187159278437345051923730.188.90.790.570.170.39
Jamison CrowderWRWAS44635259276244520535-263929880.178.31.030.700.180.39
Travis KelceTEKC42583249217186403466058923850.176.91.160.720.180.39
Nelson AgholorWRPHI2748169195312507264548923280.2210.60.520.560.150.38
Adam ThielenWRMIN324521193342105444531145922510.2412.10.830.710.140.38
Zach MillerTECHI44613208217162379425061927120.146.21.120.720.190.38
Jordan ReedTEWAS44633195261175436456063729880.156.91.050.700.180.37
Mohamed SanuWRATL395931792512735244300591032700.168.90.820.660.170.37
Torrey SmithWRSF1739258185358543243039923730.2313.90.450.440.140.37
Brian QuickWRLA26423146272284556421043923680.2313.20.760.620.130.37
Dontrelle InmanWRSD325611122962655614080561029370.1910.00.730.570.150.36
Randall CobbWRGB456532431932534464333366831750.146.90.970.690.170.36
Jermaine KearseWRSEA26450105202284486307045924250.2010.80.630.580.140.36
Sammie CoatesWRPIT20422109316502818425542931470.2619.50.520.480.120.35
Charles ClayTEBUF2946083200179379283046925890.158.20.750.630.170.35
Dennis PittaTEBAL46660158217181398375066930030.136.00.940.700.170.35
Marquise GoodwinWRBUF16373136178372550301039725890.2114.90.550.430.140.35
John BrownWRARI30531763044277313801053837340.2013.80.520.570.140.35
Willie SneadWRNO42584211311144455522059827900.167.81.150.720.150.35
Marqise LeeWRJAC385502262663135794921757931800.1810.50.850.690.140.34
Gary BarnidgeTECLE375401752591083674340541027100.146.81.180.690.170.34
Brandon LaFellWRCIN29464122269199468387-247927210.1710.20.830.630.150.34
Michael FloydWRARI2449333325434759358049837340.2015.50.470.490.130.34
Ted GinnWRCAR29470602682745423283747931200.1711.50.610.620.140.34
Lance KendricksTELA33541187144113257331054923680.114.81.290.610.170.33
Antonio GatesTESD3057590200234434290057829370.157.60.670.530.150.33
Chris HoganWRNE19302123268269537391230922320.2417.90.730.630.110.33
Rob GronkowskiTENE25363255285139424540036722320.1911.81.270.690.130.32
Martellus BennettTENE3847431818631217504647922320.104.62.320.810.170.32
Steve SmithWRBAL36542154263186449417054730030.158.30.930.670.140.32
Eric EbronTEDET32431133248110358381043621920.168.31.060.740.140.32
Terrance WilliamsWRDAL25351120240156396360035822160.1811.30.910.710.120.31
Cameron BrateTETB3550569306171477375050934100.149.50.790.700.140.31
Anquan BoldinWRDET35485121160101261286050921920.125.41.100.730.150.31
Cameron MeredithWRCHI29412150231223454381642727120.1711.10.840.710.130.31
Victor CruzWRNYG25421128249209458377042825880.1810.90.820.600.120.30
Coby FleenerTENO30492151237190427385250927900.158.70.900.610.130.30
Breshad PerrimanWRBAL2042172208378586280242930030.2014.00.480.480.110.30
Chris ConleyWRKC27410109217163380326041923850.169.30.860.660.130.30
Robby AndersonWRNYJ22370741963505462703038827940.2014.80.490.590.110.30
Seth RobertsWROAK25474140143226369277049926550.147.90.750.530.130.30
Tyler BoydWRCIN27420109186180366295342927210.138.70.810.640.130.29
Tyreek HillWRKC324141691541993533235741923850.158.60.920.780.130.29
David JohnsonRBARI406213886516623145376063937340.063.71.960.650.160.29
Adam HumphriesWRTB355312561271482753831553934100.085.21.390.660.150.28
Dorial Green-BeckhamWRPHI1836191103237340194036823280.159.40.570.500.120.28
Kevin WhiteWRCHI1936054133279412187936427120.1511.40.450.530.110.27
Phillip DorsettWRIND2035178240248488314336827990.1713.90.640.570.100.27
Jack DoyleTEIND3645414423579314379045927990.117.01.210.800.130.27
Andrew HawkinsWRCLE244131011361863222370421027100.127.90.740.590.130.27
C.J. FiedorowiczTEHOU2943311119498292305043927910.106.81.040.670.130.27
Duke JohnsonRBCLE39540301374380338255541027100.031.54.230.720.170.27
Ryan GriffinTEHOU2742199122150272221043927910.106.50.810.640.130.26
Zach ErtzTEPHI293506224058298302035723280.138.51.010.830.110.26
Julius ThomasTEJAC2746486183162345269046831800.117.50.780.590.120.26
James WhiteRBNE33473306-16382229011247922320.010.513.180.700.170.26
Garrett CelekTESF1630072143161304215031823730.1310.10.710.530.110.25
Will TyeTENYG2740096139142281235041925880.117.00.840.680.110.25
Darren SprolesRBPHI3347126632366829830448923280.031.44.380.700.150.25
Eddie RoyalWRCHI3039219217071241362039727120.096.21.500.770.120.24
Tyler LockettWRSEA2134087199722712861534924250.118.01.060.620.110.24
Ricardo LouisWRCLE1633074109235344183033927100.1310.40.530.480.100.24
Albert WilsonWRKC193318180208288161-533723850.128.70.560.580.100.24
Devin FunchessWRCAR1432378162237399234033831200.1312.50.590.440.100.23
J.J. NelsonWRARI17312621814085892432731737340.1619.00.410.550.080.23
Corey BrownWRCAR2036173128186314194037931200.108.70.620.560.110.23
Theo RiddickRBDET354642703323527329746721920.020.87.800.760.140.23
DeMarco MurrayRBTEN3746221348-345259930471030130.011.05.760.800.140.23
Vincent JacksonWRTB1532016157278435173032534100.1313.60.400.470.090.23
Giovani BernardRBCIN3443123468158329631644927210.031.93.570.790.140.22
Corey ColemanWRCLE1325232199217416231026427100.1516.60.560.520.080.22
Eli RogersWRPIT2335293187155342280035631470.119.80.820.660.100.22
Kendall WrightWRTEN2130395229873163241530730130.1010.51.030.700.090.21
Walt PowellWRBUF1324043103200303141025625890.1212.60.470.540.090.21
Bilal PowellRBNYJ3648122314620240272491027940.010.412.000.750.140.21
Richard RodgersTEGB1934159133204337175035831750.119.90.520.560.090.21
Jesse JamesTEPIT2839310013193224231041931470.075.71.030.720.110.21
Cordarrelle PattersonWRMIN3036220551751262561536922510.063.52.030.830.110.21
Hunter HenryTESD2435415919682278355035829370.097.91.280.690.090.21
Vance McDonaldTESF1527318096114210276027723730.097.81.310.560.100.21
Brice ButlerWRDAL112329124130254125024822160.1111.00.490.480.080.20
Kamar AikenWRBAL1629067104255359171029930030.1212.40.480.550.080.20
Melvin GordonRBSD33462331152540346838461029370.010.98.650.720.120.20
Dwayne AllenTEIND1929262145137282207029727990.109.70.730.660.080.20
C.J. UzomahTECIN1729083110118228193029627210.087.90.850.590.090.20
Clive WalfordTEOAK2130175124120244199030826550.098.10.820.700.080.19
Jordan NorwoodWRDEN19311651381002382030311029850.087.70.850.610.090.19
Charles JohnsonWRMIN71903863240303101019822510.1315.90.330.370.060.18
Devonta FreemanRBATL31392215372966252669391032700.021.73.820.790.110.18
Vernon DavisTEWAS2629217421035245382030829880.088.41.560.900.080.18
Jacob TammeTEATL223139611477191210031832700.066.21.100.710.090.18
Danny AmendolaWRNE172136314258200205021922320.099.51.030.810.070.17
Eric DeckerWRNYJ921230164169333194021327940.1215.90.580.430.060.17
Andre JohnsonUNKTEN9232157019826885023630130.0911.70.320.390.070.17
Todd GurleyRBLA2633018517223920251533923680.021.25.180.790.110.17
Donte MoncriefWRIND1425338131113244169-125427990.099.80.690.560.070.17
Taylor GabrielWRATL18242107205983033122424732700.0912.61.030.750.070.17
Chris ThompsonRBWAS303411556787522223234929880.032.22.960.880.100.16
Virgil GreenTEDEN182809212056176211029629850.066.31.200.640.080.16
T.J. YeldonRBJAC32401210-9211220128540931800.000.316.750.800.110.16
Jaelen StrongWRHOU14240329979178131024627910.067.40.740.580.070.16
Paul RichardsonWRSEA1118055128105233183018824250.1012.90.790.610.060.15
Travaris CadetRBNO21311914373116134431927900.043.71.160.680.080.15
Brandon ColemanWRNO182315715783240214023827900.0910.40.890.780.060.15
Isaiah CrowellRBCLE21280221135467234543291027100.022.43.490.750.090.15
Jaron BrownWRARI1123158129162291187023637340.0812.70.640.480.060.15
Malcolm MitchellWRNE7150504516521095015622320.0914.00.450.470.050.15
Spencer WareRBKC2026126361268732457226823850.043.33.720.770.080.15
Trey BurtonTEPHI13221657652128141022723280.055.81.100.590.070.14
Marcedes LewisTEJAC18281896476140153028931800.045.01.090.640.070.14
Jermaine GreshamTEARI152504895126221143026937340.068.80.650.600.070.14
Chester RogersWRIND1119042118111229156020727990.0812.10.680.580.050.14
Lamar MillerRBHOU2228111113203312472030927910.011.23.760.790.090.14
Austin HooperTEATL152026518449233249020932700.0711.71.070.750.060.14
Fozzy WhittakerRBCAR23280205-1212018719130931200.010.79.350.820.080.13
Ty MontgomeryWRGB253001783584321312830831750.011.44.950.830.080.13
Demetrius HarrisTEKC1019026549014480019923850.067.60.560.530.060.13
Tyler EifertTECIN131911129554149207019327210.057.81.390.680.060.13
Mark IngramRBNO263031552673318054831927900.011.15.450.870.080.13
Christine MichaelRBSEA20261112-162159646926924250.000.219.200.770.080.13
Kyle JuszczykFBBAL20280110282452138729930030.021.92.650.710.070.12
Justin HunterWRBUF613366512118671013525890.0714.30.380.460.050.12
Tevin ColemanRBATL1924127753267933023424732700.023.34.180.790.070.12
Darrius Heyward-BeyWRPIT51521850210260686015631470.0817.30.260.330.040.12
Jordan HowardRBCHI182411662262817760525827120.011.26.320.750.070.12
Jalen RichardRBOAK182309429507912328025926550.033.41.560.780.060.12
Matt AsiataRBMIN182301321882615024023922510.011.15.770.780.070.12
Charcandrick WestRBKC1924097-1234228518324823850.010.93.860.790.070.12
Larry DonnellTENYG152114151449592021525880.044.50.970.710.060.12
Charone PeakeWRNYJ13190416860128109020727940.056.70.850.680.050.11
C.J. AndersonRBDEN1624110424234712843724729850.022.02.720.670.070.11
Bennie FowlerWRDEN816195012617659016829850.0611.00.340.500.050.11
Devontae BookerRBDEN17240104151227119396241029850.011.14.410.710.070.11
C.J. ProsiseRBSEA1516010796111072039616524250.046.71.900.940.050.11
Latavius MurrayRBOAK18240967142110339324726550.010.94.900.750.070.11
Sammy WatkinsWRBUF611075611016663011225890.0615.10.380.550.040.11
Xavier GrimbleTEPIT1019138605711798019731470.046.20.840.530.050.10
Damien WilliamsRBMIA12162125304341559516820780.022.14.560.750.060.10
Cecil ShortsWRTB4150313913617570015434100.0511.70.400.270.040.10
Tyler HigbeeTELA31406317810937014623680.057.80.340.210.040.10
Jeff JanisWRGB916124549615078016731750.059.40.520.560.040.10
Aldrick RobinsonWRATL71416868216892014832700.0512.00.550.500.040.10
Jalin MarshallWRNYJ9151449033123134015827940.048.21.090.600.040.10
Benny CunninghamRBLA1418062201030829518823680.011.72.730.780.060.10
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Jeremy ButlerWRSD1101404501129370.004.01.251.000.000.01
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Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

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By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive

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