Wide Receivers to Target – Using Air Yards to Identify Buy Low Candidates

Each week I will be breaking out wide receiver air yards and using the data to attempt to spot undervalued WRs.

Air yards explained

Air yards give us a complete view of a WR’s game. They show us what volume of yards are thrown at a guy, what amount he caught, and how many yards after the catch he created on passes he did catch. The NFL has tweeted out some very cool route visualizations recently. Below is one for Kelvin Benjamin.

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By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive

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  1. Very cool! I don't understand why Fuller wasn't on that first list. It would appear that he was tied for air yards with Robinson when sorting the second table. Either way, holy shit batman...just watched his highlights against the Bears.

  2. PatW says:

    So how much do we love Fuller? Would you make this deal?
    Fuller + Lacy for Jamaal + Desean Jackson
    I think at this point in time, Jamaal and Lacy are probably pretty even for me, so it likely comes down to whether you like Fuller or Desean more.

  3. Any idea of how consistent Team Air yards are from week 1 vs rest of season? I guess I'm asking how game script dependent they are, or can we expect some consistency going forward?

    In particular, I'm looking at TY Hilton (high air yards, low MS) vs Sammy Watkins (lower air yards, very high MS).

    I guess we can qualitative try to think about it, but I was wondering what the numbers might show.

  4. He beasted out. I'm incredibly bullish on him. Thanks for the kind words.

    @j2cain I would probably do that given your situation with Keenan.

    @turndownforwatt Do eeeet.

    @wawaqueso I think Fuller could end up having the better year, and even if he doesn't there is a strong chance it won't be that much worse that a healthy Desean season.

    @dkpsports I looked at Air years season over season (~.4 correlation) but not game to game. In general, game to game correlations are very poor. This is a large reason why I do not prefer DFS to seasonal. Too much variance.

    As for Hilton vs Watkins, Sammy had unreal air yards to end the year. But you want to balance that against target volume and health. I think TY is the better play with the information we have right now, but that could very well turn out to be wrong. Sammy's ceiling is probably higher.

    Thanks for the comments! Much appreciated.

  5. @friscojosh Hi Josh,

    I am trying to turn my roster around a bit. I currently have Cobb, and Gordon and through a few trades, I might be able to get Marvin Jones, Jennings ad Decker. Would you do that trade?

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