Advice

Examining Efficiency: Sit Shepard in Week 4

On to Week 4! As a reminder, I’ll be using yards per target over expectation and yards per carry over expectation to find regression candidates. As always, let’s start with a recap of the Week 3 regression candidates, and how they impacted fantasy football rosters.

RECAP OF WEEK 3

POSITIVE REGRESSION WEEK 3 RESULTS

Coby Fleener: Last week’s article was called “Examining Efficiency: All-In on Fleener in Week 3” – going to take my victory lap here. Fucking nailed it!

Michael Floyd: Fucking didn’t nail it! Only 65 yards on 11 targets. Ouch.

Charles Sims: Sims posted a 4.2 YPC, but more importantly a 0.53 YPCOE and scored a rushing touchdown. His 6-69 on 8 targets also put him right at league average in YPTOE, which is an improvement from his first two weeks. Score this one a hit!

NEGATIVE REGRESSION WEEK 3 RESULTS

Matt Jones: Jones posted a YPCOE that was league average in Week 3, which was regression from his positive YPCOE through the first two weeks. He also did not record a touchdown, so this was a hit.

Mike Wallace: It was almost impossible for Wallace to not regress, and that proved to be true. He only had 34 yards on six targets.

Martellus Bennett: Bennett posted only 10 yards on three targets. Volume was diminished because Jacoby Brissett was behind center and Rob Gronkowski returned for a handful of plays. But even on the efficiency side, things just weren’t there for Bennett.

WEEK 4 REGRESSION CANDIDATES

POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

T.J. YeldonYeldon has averaged 2.47 yards per carry in 2016 which, when taking down, distance, and field position into account, gives him a YPCOE of -1.36.1 Throw in a YPTOE of -0.96 and he’s been poor in both facets of the game. He gets a Colts defense that is 25th in efficiency vs. the run and 29th against RBs in the pass game.2

Steve Smith: There’s no doubt Smith has struggled coming back from injury at an advanced age. But last week it looked like Smith and Joe Flacco started to develop some chemistry, albeit against a middling Jaguars pass D. If that continues, Smith should improve on his -0.84 YPTOE against Oakland – the third worst pass D against WRs via the Buy Low Machine.

Jordan Reed: Reed has a -0.59 YPTOE and zero TDs in 2016. He now faces Cleveland, who rank 27th vs. the TE in the Buy Low Machine and 22nd in DVOA.

Bonus — Garrett Celek: If Celek plays, he faces Dallas, who are second to last in both the Buy Low Machine and DVOA. He has a -1.37 YPTOE to date. Vance McDonald has a hip injury and is more likely to miss the game than Celek is.

NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

DeMarco MurrayMurray currently boasts the second best YPCOE for runners with 20+ carries at +1.96. He also has a +5.06 YPCOE and has three touchdowns in three games. He faces a Houston defense that has been stout against RBs in the pass game, but slightly worse than league average in DVOA in the rush game. They are also missing J.J. Watt. However, he’s still likely to regress after facing Detroit and Oakland the last two weeks, who rank 27th and 28th in efficiency against the run.

Sterling Shepard: I am eating crow on Shepard, because he’s posted a +5.53 YPTOE and two TDs through three weeks. But now he faces Minnesota’s Captain Munnerlyn in a very tough slot matchup. Sit him in all seasonal and weekly formats.

Delanie Walker: Walker was close to playing last week, and should play this week against Houston. But that’s the problem. Houston is number one against the TE in schedule adjusted points allowed. Walker has posted the second best YPTOE for TEs3 at +4.96, and also has one TD in two games.

YPCOE AND YPTOE

Below are the YPCOE values first, and then the YPTOE value to date. To qualify for YPCOE a player must have 15+ rush attempts and for YPTOE 9+ targets.

PLAYERruATTS.Q1ruTDS.Q1ruFPOE.Q1YPCOE
Jalen Richard16111.74.12
DeAndre Washington1703.62.91
Duke Johnson1602.82.55
Christine Michael45292.15
DeMarco Murray41191.96
Devonta Freeman4202.31.93
Danny Woodhead1901.91.82
Isaiah Crowell45215.41.81
Ameer Abdullah1801.71.75
Eddie Lacy430-4.51.47
Fozzy Whittaker2401.61.43
Spencer Ware4112.71.08
LeSean McCoy4839.20.90
Latavius Murray32313.70.73
Alfred Morris1727.40.72
Jeremy Langford3121.50.59
Jeremy Hill3739.70.33
Chris Johnson1910.10.25
Mark Ingram360-20.17
Shane Vereen311-3.20.11
DeAngelo Williams6626.30.08
David Johnson4737.9-0.07
Derrick Henry240-2-0.09
Wendell Smallwood201-0.5-0.12
C.J. Anderson542-4.9-0.19
Ezekiel Elliott7123.7-0.23
Matt Jones3712.8-0.26
Dwayne Washington161-3-0.30
Jonathan Stewart200-2.2-0.32
Devontae Booker160-1.8-0.32
Matt Forte6732-0.36
Lamar Miller740-11.5-0.43
Frank Gore481-1.7-0.43
Doug Martin250-3.1-0.49
Rashad Jennings310-3.9-0.51
Giovani Bernard150-2.2-0.58
Melvin Gordon5448-0.61
Terrance West330-4.5-0.63
Charles Sims261-5-0.69
Ryan Mathews333-1.2-0.69
Todd Gurley632-10.7-0.82
LeGarrette Blount7549.2-0.93
Justin Forsett310-5.3-0.98
Theo Riddick2811.1-1.19
Arian Foster160-3.2-1.20
Jerick McKinnon190-3.9-1.26
Carlos Hyde5849-1.33
T.J. Yeldon341-3.2-1.36
Darren Sproles190-4.8-1.68
Matt Asiata160-4.1-1.69
Tevin Coleman32412-1.83
Shaun Draughn211-2.4-2.20
Adrian Peterson310-9.9-2.46
Thomas Rawls190-6.3-2.53

PLAYERreTRGS.Q1reTDS.Q1reFPOE.Q1YPTOE
Spencer Ware12013.413.52
Tevin Coleman1108.713.31
Sammie Coates1209.610.36
Victor Cruz15110.18.68
Willie Snead17220.77.83
Demaryius Thomas20115.36.91
Darren Sproles13112.26.86
Devonta Freeman919.26.80
Alshon Jeffery2007.86.54
Marvin Jones29223.16.37
Danny Amendola10215.86.30
Doug Baldwin27216.15.84
Jaron Brown101115.75
Sterling Shepard19220.35.53
Corey Coleman13218.55.30
Travis Kelce2118.25.16
David Johnson1703.85.09
DeMarco Murray19212.65.03
Stefon Diggs27114.55.01
Delanie Walker1119.84.96
Martellus Bennett1417.34.88
Mark Ingram12134.59
Jimmy Graham1419.34.41
Josh Ferguson1102.84.39
Brandon LaFell1501.34.37
Bilal Powell130-5.34.24
Latavius Murray902.14.24
Tyrell Williams2012.54.11
Odell Beckham Jr.300-4.54.03
Travis Benjamin21216.13.92
Jack Doyle15214.73.38
Greg Olsen27110.13.38
Phillip Dorsett150-1.53.34
Theo Riddick1916.13.13
Eddie Royal1516.93.12
Michael Crabtree2516.93.04
Dennis Pitta2402.92.98
Adam Thielen14012.95
Melvin Gordon100-0.32.91
Giovani Bernard2017.22.86
Brandon Coleman120-0.12.83
Mohamed Sanu17102.71
Tyler Lockett120-0.32.66
Michael Thomas2213.62.59
Amari Cooper290-42.56
Cole Beasley2500.92.55
Jarvis Landry35182.42
Fozzy Whittaker1100.62.39
DeSean Jackson2315.12.37
Lamar Miller110-0.32.16
Tyler Boyd150-0.72.15
Adam Humphries2500.82.09
Zach Miller1826.82.06
Will Fuller2515.51.93
A.J. Green32151.90
Charcandrick West110-0.61.89
Kenny Britt220-0.41.83
Ted Ginn12001.83
Julian Edelman240-1.51.82
Jacob Tamme201-1.41.80
Marqise Lee180-1.21.76
Jason Witten200-41.63
Chris Hogan1316.11.60
Nelson Agholor1514.61.58
Eric Decker2123.51.54
Jamison Crowder2520.41.47
Larry Fitzgerald3332.11.43
Allen Hurns230-4.11.24
Shane Vereen130-2.71.24
Julio Jones2025.91.17
Julius Thomas17161.16
Quincy Enunwa2510.31.13
LeSean McCoy130-1.10.96
Ryan Griffin140-1.20.94
Emmanuel Sanders292-1.90.91
Matt Forte140-1.90.88
Charles Sims1615.60.87
Harry Douglas90-5.60.84
Brandin Cooks2626.60.84
Gary Barnidge130-1.30.81
Donte Moncrief1011.80.74
Ty Hilton341-0.10.74
Charles Clay120-2.20.52
Pierre Garcon200-6.90.48
Dorial Green-Beckham100-1.40.47
DeAndre Hopkins2725.70.27
Eli Rogers1510.70.26
Jordan Cameron1114.60.24
Clive Walford15140.21
Eric Ebron2012.50.17
Jordy Nelson27416.60.02
Mike Wallace18317-0.02
C.J. Uzomah170-10.7-0.02
DeAngelo Williams211-0.1-0.05
Randall Cobb180-5.2-0.11
Kelvin Benjamin22316.1-0.13
DeVante Parker1912.7-0.16
Marquise Goodwin1014.9-0.35
Jermaine Kearse150-7.2-0.46
Travaris Cadet161-4-0.58
Jordan Matthews2622.9-0.59
Jordan Reed250-7.5-0.59
Kyle Rudolph2625.5-0.60
Terrelle Pryor310-8.3-0.74
Duke Johnson170-5.5-0.75
Steve Smith260-7.3-0.84
T.J. Yeldon180-5.5-0.96
Mike Evans3738.5-1.20
Breshad Perriman110-3.4-1.24
Quinton Patton150-5.2-1.27
Robert Woods150-4.6-1.28
Larry Donnell111-0.5-1.28
Antonio Brown402-1.5-1.33
Garrett Celek100-3.9-1.37
Brandon Marshall270-17.7-1.38
Chris Conley160-7.7-1.45
Will Tye110-5-1.50
Davante Adams1624.3-1.54
Allen Robinson312-1.4-1.61
Corey Brown130-5.1-1.63
Malcolm Mitchell90-3.2-1.65
C.J. Anderson1412.2-1.69
Dez Bryant231-5.5-1.70
Anquan Boldin1625.6-1.71
Dwayne Allen1510.3-1.78
Kenny Stills1711-1.79
Cameron Brate182-0.9-1.79
James White130-5.4-1.86
Jesse James161-1.1-1.99
Tajae Sharpe250-11.3-2.11
Justin Forsett150-5.9-2.15
Coby Fleener231-5.9-2.15
Jeremy Langford90-3.7-2.21
Jeremy Kerley230-9.8-2.26
Antonio Gates91-2.4-2.28
Andrew Hawkins100-5.5-2.29
Rishard Matthews180-7.9-2.30
Lance Kendricks130-8.6-2.31
Sammy Watkins110-4.7-2.43
Kevin White270-16.1-2.45
Trey Burton131-2.8-2.63
Christine Michael110-5.7-2.75
Frank Gore1210.8-2.82
John Brown180-8.5-2.95
Jared Cook110-6.1-3.11
Golden Tate220-11.4-3.17
Michael Floyd241-14.6-3.49
Jeremy Maclin291-9.7-3.56
Dontrelle Inman100-6.8-3.59
Josh Huff90-6.5-3.81
Tavon Austin291-9.9-3.83
Torrey Smith201-7.2-4.68
Vincent Jackson220-16.3-4.88
Seth Roberts162-0.9-5.96
Devin Funchess101-3.4-7.13
Charles Johnson100-10.6-8.73
Andre Johnson121-7.6-9.19

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  1. In other words, his expected YPC is 3.83 so far.  (back)
  2. Via Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.  (back)
  3. Behind only Travis Kelce.  (back)
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