Examining Efficiency: 6 Week 2 Regression Candidates
Week 1 is in the books, so it’s time to recap how the regression candidates from Week 1 fared, and look ahead to the positive and negative regression candidates for Week 2.
Recap of Week 1
Positive Regression Week 1 Results
Davante Adams: Adams hauled in a TD, which always makes for a good fantasy day from someone of his value. However, Adams had a -2.86 YPTOE, meaning 2.86 yards below situational expectation. This was actually worse than the -2.1 number he posted in 2015.
Latavius Murray: Murray rushed for one TD and had both a positive YPTOE and YPCOE against a bad Saints D. Positive regression all around!
Negative Regression Week 1 Results
Allen Hurns: Hurns did not grab a TD, but posted a very impressive 6.25 YPTOE on only five targets.
C.J. Anderson: Anderson rushed for a TD and additionally caught a TD pass. He also had a 2.91 YPTOE. However, I did nail the rushing YPCOE part. He was held to a -3.35 YPCOE.
Zach Miller: Chalk this up as a win all around. Miller did not catch a touchdown and posted a 1.24 YPTOE on four targets. That did regress down from his 1.7 YPTOE in 2015.
Week 2 Regression Candidates
Positive Regression Candidates
Jeremy Langford — It’s no secret Langford is loved at RotoViz but hated elsewhere for his poor efficiency. That was on display again last week against a stout Houston defense. So although he did rush for a TD, he was also held to a -1.9 YPCOE and a -2.25 YPTOE. Look for the YPCOE to come up against an Eagles defense that was 28th in 2015 in DVOA aginst the run, and who just allowed Isaiah Crowell to rush for 1.1 YPCOE on 12 attempts in Week 1. Langford is a good start this week.
Dez Bryant — Don’t panic over rookie QB Dak Prescott. Dez was held to a -9.12 YPTOE value, which is unsustainably low. This week he gets a Redskins D that just allowed Antonio Brown and Eli Rogers to put up strong games in the TD department, and even allowed Sammie Coates to haul in two of three targets for 52 yards. Keep riding Dez.
Virgil Green — It remains to be seen whether Trevor Siemian will keep Green in the negative for YPTOE, but a matchup with Indy who was 20th last year in DVOA to the TE position and just allowed a TD to Eric Ebron certainly can’t hurt.
Negative Regression Candidates
Spencer Ware — Ware now faces the Texans D that just held Langford to negative values in both YPTOE and YPCOE. Ware posted an absurd 14.8 YPTOE to go along with a 3.0 YPCOE in Week 1 against the Chargers. That won’t hold against this defensive unit. Ware could be considered for the bench if you have suitable alternatives.
Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks — Snead had an absurd 13.6 YPTOE while Cooks posted a 5.6 YPTOE. That number for Cooks is low considering he had a 98 yard TD catch as part of his stat line. That right there suggests regression. Now they face the Giants, on the road, who just held Bryant and Cole Beasley to a negative YPTOE, and allowed Terrance Williams only four targets for a 2.7 YPTOE. They aren’t bench-worthy, but don’t expect nearly as big a game.