Advice

Examining Efficiency: All-In on Fleener in Week 3

We’re two weeks into the season, so now with a second data point, we can start to find out what trends may be real, and which data points are bound for regression to the mean.

That’s the goal of this article, from an efficiency perspective. I’ll be using yards per target over expectation and yards per carry over expectation to find regression candidates for Week 3. But first, let’s see how the regression candidates from Week 2 fared.

RECAP OF WEEK 2

POSITIVE REGRESSION WEEK 2 RESULTS

Jeremy Langford: Langford had a rough outing overall. While he did grab a touchdown, he also ended up with a -2.1 YPCOE with a 11-28-1 rushing line. He also only added six yards on two targets.

Dez Bryant: Dez had a much stronger week than last, ending up with a -0.46 YPTOE. In other words, he was essentially league average on his 12 targets from a yardage perspective. However, that elusive first touchdown has yet to materialize.

Virgil Green: Green had a quiet game with only three targets. But he did gain 15.3 yards per target for a 12.7 YPTOE. While it sounds strange that his expected YPT was only 2.6 (15.3 – 12.7), it makes more sense when you recall that YPT regresses TDs out. In other words, a player who accumulated zero TDs from the down, distance, and yard lines he received his three targets from has an expected YPT of 2.8.

NEGATIVE REGRESSION WEEK 1 RESULTS

Spencer Ware: Let’s face it, Ware will probably continue to produce at an elite level in the passing game. Ware had a 14.26 YPTOE to go with 13.6 the week prior.1 However, his rushing totals did regress downward as he was only able to muster a YPCOE of -1.47.

Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead: Cooks didn’t catch a touchdown, but did post a 2.0 YPTOE. Snead caught a TD and posted a 0.2 YPTOE. These Saints boys have been extremely efficient so far in 2016.

WEEK 3 REGRESSION CANDIDATES

POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

Coby Fleener — If Fleener can’t get it done against Atlanta, maybe we should give up hope. Atlanta allowed the three Bucs TEs to catch all five of their targets for 64 yards and two TDs. A week later they let Clive Walford and Lee Smith grab 10 of 11 targets for 74 yards and a score. Fleener has a -7.96 YPTOE and no TDs. He’s a buy-low candidate that you hope to flip, and a great DFS play.

Michael Floyd — Floyd stands 20th in the NFL in aYPT among all players with at least six targets, so he’s bound to have some high variance in his catch rates. So far his catch rate has been low, at only 38.5 percent, resulting in a YPTOE of -8.79 and a RACR of 0.38.2

Charles Sims — Sims has a -1.0 YPTOE and a -0.67 YPCOE so far in 2016. This week he faces the L.A. Rams who have been mid-pack against the pass and the rush to RBs. Last year Sims had one of the highest YPTOE scores of any player, so I expect a bounce-back week, at least in receiving efficiency.

NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

Matt Jones — I was surprised to see Jones has a positive YPCOE, and with that TD last week he is above average in TD rate. Look for that to change against a revamped Giants D that held Ezekiel Elliott and Mark Ingram to a combined 2.8 yards per carry.

Mike Wallace — Wallace has three TDs in two games, and a YPTOE of 3.81. But he’s done that against Cleveland and Buffalo. Consider what the New York Jets did to the Bills through the air, and it’s clear both matchups were quite soft for Wallace. The Jaguars aren’t exactly a stalwart pass defense, but they have been better than their 31st rank last year. However, this is mostly about simple regression to the mean for Wallace from an unsustainable TD rate and YPTOE.

Martellus Bennett — Bennett’s 7.31 YPTOE and 0.091 TD rate are each unsustainable. Now he faces Houston, who boasts a defense ranked ninth in DVOA to the TE position in 2015 and fifth so far in 2016.

Below are the YPTOE and YPCOE for players with 6+ targest and 10+ rushes.

PLAYERreTRGSreTDRTreFPOEPAreTDreFPOEYPTOE
Spencer Ware1101.17012.8713.78
Sammie Coates800.9907.9212.18
Chris Thompson600.7604.5610.13
Greg Salas60.1671.5919.549.11
Tevin Coleman800.6204.968.48
Sterling Shepard120.0831.07112.848.09
Stefon Diggs200.050.88117.67.89
Vernon Davis600.5303.187.83
David Johnson1100.5706.277.78
Corey Coleman130.1541.43218.597.63
Alshon Jeffery1300.5507.157.51
Willie Snead170.1181.22220.747.47
Martellus Bennett110.0911.03111.337.31
Danny Amendola80.251.88215.047.00
Julio Jones130.1541.32217.166.53
Chris Hogan100.10.9819.86.35
Josh Ferguson700.3602.525.99
Theo Riddick100.10.9319.35.85
Delanie Walker110.0910.8819.685.81
Demaryius Thomas1300.3704.815.71
Keenan Allen700.3202.245.59
Greg Olsen170.0590.69111.735.53
Julius Thomas120.0830.7719.245.09
Thomas Rawls600.2501.55.03
Michael Thomas1100.2903.194.98
Mark Ingram600.2401.444.93
Quincy Enunwa140.0710.6919.664.89
Latavius Murray800.2602.084.88
Travis Benjamin140.1431.09215.264.82
Dennis Pitta1600.2804.484.73
Brandin Cooks180.1110.91216.384.72
Zach Ertz700.2101.474.49
Mike Wallace120.251.61319.323.81
Adam Thielen1000.1501.53.63
Tyler Boyd1100.1301.433.38
Duke Johnson1000.1101.13.23
Cameron Brate800.0900.723.18
Matt Forte1000.1013.13
LeSean McCoy900.0900.813.10
Julian Edelman1800.1101.983.00
Eddie Royal120.0830.5516.62.89
Will Fuller180.0560.417.22.80
Brandon LaFell1200.0700.842.74
C.J. Anderson100.10.6116.12.65
A.J. Green210.0480.3417.142.61
Travis Kelce1400.0500.72.48
Jarvis Landry2300.0601.382.45
Jack Doyle90.2221.27211.432.38
Marqise Lee1100.0200.222.28
Charles Clay1000.0100.12.23
Kenny Britt1600.0200.322.13
Giovani Bernard150.0670.3815.72.03
Stephen Anderson60-0.050-0.32.03
Kelvin Benjamin210.1430.84317.642.03
Virgil Green80-0.030-0.241.98
Lance Kendricks90-0.030-0.271.90
Anquan Boldin100.10.5315.31.85
Lamar Miller60-0.070-0.421.83
Michael Crabtree140.0710.3815.321.79
Allen Hurns150-0.020-0.31.75
Tyler Lockett120-0.030-0.361.74
Adam Humphries130-0.030-0.391.71
Charcandrick West80-0.060-0.481.68
Quinton Patton110-0.050-0.551.58
Shane Vereen80-0.070-0.561.58
Amari Cooper200-0.040-0.81.48
Zach Miller90-0.080-0.721.40
Eric Decker150.1330.69210.351.33
DeMarco Murray140.1430.74210.361.32
Tyrell Williams110.0910.4314.731.31
Jordan Cameron100.10.4714.71.25
Marvin Jones210-0.070-1.471.17
Cole Beasley180-0.080-1.441.10
Carlos Hyde60-0.150-0.91.03
Victor Cruz120.0830.3514.20.89
Phillip Dorsett110-0.120-1.320.88
DeVante Parker130-0.120-1.560.81
Nelson Agholor120.0830.3414.080.79
DeAndre Hopkins190.1050.4628.740.54
Brian Quick60-0.210-1.260.43
Frank Gore90.1110.4413.960.39
DeAngelo Williams140.0710.2413.360.39
Breshad Perriman70-0.210-1.470.29
Clive Walford120.0830.2813.360.19
Doug Baldwin170.0590.1512.550.13
Rishard Matthews100-0.210-2.10.03
Will Tye60-0.260-1.56-0.07
Eric Ebron120.0830.2412.88-0.21
DeSean Jackson150-0.220-3.3-0.25
Dorial Green-Beckham60-0.280-1.68-0.27
Dwayne Allen100.10.313-0.45
Jason Witten180-0.250-4.5-0.60
Eli Rogers100.10.2812.8-0.65
Jacob Tamme160.0620.0911.44-0.65
Kyle Rudolph160.0620.0911.44-0.65
Odell Beckham Jr.190-0.270-5.13-0.81
Jared Cook80-0.310-2.48-0.82
Charles Sims80.1250.3712.96-1.00
T.J. Yeldon150-0.30-4.5-1.05
Jesse James120.0830.1511.8-1.11
Justin Forsett80-0.340-2.72-1.12
Brandon Marshall170-0.310-5.27-1.19
Jordan Reed180-0.310-5.58-1.20
Paul Richardson80-0.350-2.8-1.22
Randall Cobb150-0.320-4.8-1.25
Mike Evans240.0830.1623.84-1.27
Jeremy Kerley170-0.330-5.61-1.39
Jordan Matthews230.043-0.091-2.07-1.47
Donte Moncrief100.10.1811.8-1.65
Darren Sproles70-0.410-2.87-1.71
Mohamed Sanu130.0770.0510.65-1.79
Kevin White130-0.380-4.94-1.79
James White110-0.390-4.29-1.82
Allen Robinson200-0.370-7.4-1.82
Larry Fitzgerald210.1430.4539.45-1.87
Sammy Watkins110-0.420-4.62-2.12
Trey Burton70.1430.3412.38-2.20
Robert Woods70-0.460-3.22-2.21
Christine Michael80-0.450-3.6-2.22
Tajae Sharpe180-0.430-7.74-2.40
Gary Barnidge70-0.480-3.36-2.41
Kenny Stills90.1110.1311.17-2.71
Andrew Hawkins60-0.530-3.18-2.77
Malcolm Mitchell70-0.530-3.71-2.91
Jamison Crowder180.056-0.181-3.24-3.00
Dez Bryant170-0.520-8.84-3.29
Steve Smith150-0.530-7.95-3.35
Jordy Nelson200.10.0420.8-3.37
Pierre Garcon130-0.540-7.02-3.39
Antonio Brown220.091-0.022-0.44-3.48
Garrett Celek60-0.610-3.66-3.57
Danny Woodhead80.1250.1110.88-3.60
Davante Adams140.071-0.161-2.24-3.61
Jeremy Langford60-0.620-3.72-3.67
Jeremy Maclin220.045-0.31-6.6-3.67
Josh Doctson60-0.640-3.84-3.87
Jermaine Kearse130-0.60-7.8-3.99
Ty Hilton230-0.590-13.57-4.05
Larry Donnell70.1430.1410.98-4.20
Chris Conley110-0.630-6.93-4.22
Golden Tate160-0.660-10.56-4.67
Terrelle Pryor170-0.690-11.73-4.99
Vincent Jackson160-0.720-11.52-5.27
Seth Roberts100.1-0.21-2-5.45
C.J. Uzomah130-0.750-9.75-5.49
Devin Funchess80.125-0.081-0.64-5.50
Corey Brown80-0.790-6.32-5.62
Emmanuel Sanders160-0.780-12.48-5.87
John Brown70-0.830-5.81-5.91
Albert Wilson80-0.840-6.72-6.12
Torrey Smith160.062-0.461-7.36-6.15
Charles Johnson80-0.860-6.88-6.32
Tavon Austin210-0.820-17.22-6.33
Bilal Powell60-0.90-5.4-6.47
Antonio Gates90.111-0.271-2.43-6.71
Andre Johnson90.111-0.341-3.06-7.41
Travaris Cadet100.1-0.41-4-7.45
Coby Fleener120-10-12-7.96
Dontrelle Inman60-1.120-6.72-8.67
Michael Floyd130.077-0.651-8.45-8.79
Braxton Miller60-1.480-8.88-12.27

PLAYERruATTSruTDRTruFPOEPAruTDruFPOEYPCOE
Jalen Richard100.11.18111.89.29
Isaiah Crowell300.0670.49214.73.67
Spencer Ware210.0480.3216.722.60
Danny Woodhead1900.101.92.40
Fozzy Whittaker1900.101.92.40
Ameer Abdullah1800.0901.622.30
DeAndre Washington1100.0800.882.25
Theo Riddick180.0560.2714.861.80
Latavius Murray220.0910.3828.361.73
Matt Jones200.050.2214.41.51
DeAngelo Williams580.0340.1428.121.33
DeMarco Murray250-0.010-0.251.28
Devontae Booker120-0.050-0.60.94
Alfred Morris120.0830.2713.240.79
Mark Ingram210-0.060-1.260.79
LeGarrette Blount510.0390.125.10.76
Frank Gore270-0.070-1.890.67
Giovani Bernard100-0.080-0.80.67
Melvin Gordon380.0790.2338.740.59
Jonathan Stewart200-0.110-2.20.29
Christine Michael250-0.110-2.750.28
Ezekiel Elliott410.0490.0823.280.20
Rashad Jennings310-0.120-3.720.16
Doug Martin250-0.130-3.250.08
Derrick Henry140-0.140-1.960.02
Justin Forsett240-0.160-3.84-0.22
David Johnson280.036-0.021-0.56-0.35
Lamar Miller530-0.170-9.01-0.36
Devonta Freeman280-0.180-5.04-0.43
Matt Forte520.0580.0532.6-0.47
Terrance West230-0.190-4.37-0.52
Arian Foster160-0.20-3.2-0.59
Charles Sims130-0.210-2.73-0.67
Chris Johnson170.0590.0310.51-0.72
T.J. Yeldon280.036-0.061-1.68-0.75
Todd Gurley360-0.210-7.56-0.75
Carlos Hyde370.054020-0.79
Darren Sproles170-0.220-3.74-0.79
Tevin Coleman200.05-0.011-0.2-0.79
C.J. Anderson400.05-0.022-0.8-0.84
Eddie Lacy260-0.240-6.24-1.03
Mike Tolbert110-0.250-2.75-1.05
Matt Asiata100-0.260-2.6-1.13
LeSean McCoy310.032-0.121-3.72-1.22
Jeremy Langford280.071-0.012-0.28-1.50
Shaun Draughn160.062-0.041-0.64-1.55
Jeremy Hill200.05-0.091-1.8-1.59
Adrian Peterson310-0.320-9.92-1.84
Thomas Rawls190-0.330-6.27-1.90
Ryan Mathews310.0970.0130.31-2.22
Shane Vereen200-0.40-8-2.61
James Starks110-0.670-7.37-5.25

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  1. In last week’s article I stated it was 14.8, but I have slightly changed the formula since last week to account for an interaction between attempts and TDs that I was previously missing.  (back)
  2. RACR is a Josh Hermsmeyer invented efficiency metric that complements air yards.  (back)
By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive

Comments   Add comment

  1. Jason says:

    Would you drop Mike Wallace or Sanders for Fleener?

  2. I wouldn't drop Sanders. Wallace is interesting. I'd see if you could trade Wallace+someone else for an upgrade, which clears a roster spot to add Fleener.

  3. Jason says:

    @RotoDoc would you rather have Ertz or Fleener or D Allen?

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