Advice

Examining Efficiency: All-In on Fleener in Week 3

We’re two weeks into the season, so now with a second data point, we can start to find out what trends may be real, and which data points are bound for regression to the mean. That’s the goal of this article, from an efficiency perspective. I’ll be using yards per target over expectation and yards per carry over expectation to find regression candidates for Week 3. But first, let’s see how the regression candidates from Week 2 fared.

RECAP OF WEEK 2

POSITIVE REGRESSION WEEK 2 RESULTS

Jeremy Langford: Langford had a rough outing overall. While he did grab a touchdown, he also ended up with a -2.1 YPCOE with a 11-28-1 rushing line. He also only added six yards on two targets. Dez Bryant: Dez had a much stronger week than last, ending up with a -0.46 YPTOE. In other words, he was essentially league average on his 12 targets from a yardage perspective. However, that elusive first touchdown has yet to materialize. Virgil Green: Green had a quiet game with only three targets. But he did gain 15.3 yards per target for a 12.7 YPTOE. While it sounds strange that his expected YPT was only 2.6 (15.3 – 12.7), it makes more sense when you recall that YPT regresses TDs out. In other words, a player who accumulated zero TDs from the down, distance, and yard lines he received his three targets from has an expected YPT of 2.8.

NEGATIVE REGRESSION WEEK 1 RESULTS

Spencer Ware: Let’s face it, Ware will probably continue to produce at an elite level in the passing game. Ware had a 14.26 YPTOE to go with 13.6 the week prior.1 However, his rushing totals did regress downward as he was only able to muster a YPCOE of -1.47. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead: Cooks didn’t catch a touchdown, but did post a 2.0 YPTOE. Snead caught a TD and posted a 0.2 YPTOE. These Saints boys have been extremely efficient so far in 2016.

WEEK 3 REGRESSION CANDIDATES

POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
  1. In last week’s article I stated it was 14.8, but I have slightly changed the formula since last week to account for an interaction between attempts and TDs that I was previously missing.  (back)

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Comments   Add comment

  1. Jason says:

    Would you drop Mike Wallace or Sanders for Fleener?

  2. I wouldn't drop Sanders. Wallace is interesting. I'd see if you could trade Wallace+someone else for an upgrade, which clears a roster spot to add Fleener.

  3. Jason says:

    @RotoDoc would you rather have Ertz or Fleener or D Allen?

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