Diary of High-Stakes Virgins: Sunk Costs
I don’t think we had given the possibility of losing much thought. We were up 22.6 points in our Week 3 FFPC Main Event matchup, heading into Monday night with Will Lutz still to go vs. their Devonta Freeman. Should be fine, right? We were well on our way to snapping off two wins in a row after our 0-1 start.
With 2 minutes left in the game, we were still up 4.4 points. At that point, Pat and I had this exchange on Gchat:
You know what’s coming:
Yup. Pat jinxed it!
I’d post the ensuing Gchat “conversation,” but I’d like to think RotoViz is a family site (“C’mon children, gather around the computer for tonight’s FPOE discussion.”)
So yeah, we are now 1-2 after losing by 0.4 points. Not the world’s worst beat, but a bad beat nonetheless.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, we thought we’d do an audit of our team so far and make a determination on whether we should cut bait with some of our draft picks who have yet to produce or give them some more time to marinate.
On the one hand, it can be easy to fall prey to the sunk cost fallacy and value the players we drafted too highly despite having new information. On the other hand, we drafted a few of these players knowing it might take some time for them to become relevant and maybe we should demonstrate some patience.
Let’s break down four players from our draft that are still on our roster who fit this criteria and see if we can come to a decision on what to do with them.
Drafted: Round 11; YTD Production: 8 rec, 20 targets, 103 yards, 1TD
I think both Pat and I have been dying to cut Torrey, but then of course he appears as a WR to buy in Josh Hermsmeyer’s terrific weekly Air Yards article. Josh does mention that Chip Kelly’s insistence on running the ball in the 4th quarter while down complicates things. On the bright side, he has averaged just under seven targets a game and San Francisco has a top 10 schedule for WRs over the next four weeks according to the Buy Low Machine, or in our case, the Hold Low Machine. – Peter
Drafted: Round 12; YTD Production: 3 rec, 10 targets, 28 yards, 1TD
Apparently the Vikings gameplan last week was to focus on shutting down Kelvin Benjamin and to ignore Funchess. They both finished with zero catches. If this were a typical redraft league I think we’d move on from Funchess to bolster our RB corps, but there aren’t a ton of reinforcements on waivers. And we didn’t draft Funchess with the mindset that he would contribute immediately. We’ll probably hold on to him for another week or two and see if he can flash at all. – Pat
Drafted: Round 13; YTD Production: 21 att, 49 yards, 1TD, 3 rec, 5 targets, 20 yards
Spoiler alert! We dropped him. Why? Because he had a 2.3 YPC average on 21 carries? Nope. It’s actually the 1.6 targets per game. When you draft the pass catching RB on a bad team it helps if he’s actually the pass catching back and/or the team realizes it’s losing. Draughn was supposed to provide standalone value and additional upside in the event of Carlos Hyde injury. Instead, with Hyde leading the team in RB targets with only seven, Draughn is a pure handcuff and not a particularly exciting one. So we cut bait. – Pat
Drafted: Round 14; YTD Production: 5 rec, 11 targets, 89 yards
If you squint, there are a few reasons to still be excited about Perriman as a stash. According to the Snap Report, his snaps jumped from 31 percent in Week 1 to 41 percent and 39 percent in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. He’s still behind Mike Wallace and Steve Smith, but he appears to have pulled ahead of Kamar Aiken and is holding off Chris Moore. He also received five targets in Week 2 and four targets last week, including a rushing attempt, which you could (and I am) going to spin as an indicator for increased involvement moving forward. It’s also worth mentioning that Smith, while seemingly eternal, is still a 37 year-old who only played in seven games last year. Perriman is basically the WR version of a high-upside RB handcuff behind an aging bellcow. He remains a firm hold with FFPC’s deep benches. – Peter
Man, those names sure looked a lot sexier on draft day.
After waivers cleared on Wednesday evening, we did indeed move on from Draughn and picked up Terrance Williams to help bolster our thinning WR stable with Sammy Watkins in some sort of purgatory. For now, Torrey, Funchess, and Perriman live to see another day on Team Fantasyland, but just know you fellas are on THIN ICE.