The Entire List Of Mocker’s Offseason Calls
Accountability is good, so in order to make it real easy, here’s all the calls I made in articles this year. Not all articles take stances or make clear calls, so if you see one not referenced below, that’s the reason.
Of course, please keep in mind that the way my arguments are framed is all about the likelihood of something happening, and paying for probabilities, which should remain the focus in any post-mortem over end results. There’s also sometimes key elements at play like targeting high upside even with a slim chance of happening, which is exceptionally hard to quantify.
There isn’t any real objective way to judge the accuracy of probabilities or likelihoods though, so I’m fine with declaring a call right or wrong by if the player beats his average draft position at the time it was written. There are some articles where the call made was more specific than that, and they are referenced below.
Redraft calls are sorted by position, with a winter and spring dynasty summary at the bottom. There’s also links, with some comments, already-accepted-losses, and retractions throughout.
Please feel free to get on record before the season starts, and post in the comments which ones are wrong and why.
Thanks for all the support and taking the time to read what any of us on the site write, not just myself, and I hope we in some way helped you prepare for what will be a successful 2016 season.
After suggesting Peyton Manning would bounce back to form, and Nick Foles would be fine in the Rams offense, I had some understandable hesitancy when it came to taking stands on quarterbacks this season.
Hoping for some regression to the mean, here are the limited articles taking stands on pass throwers:
- June – Buy Joe Flacco at QB23.
- August – Buy Jay Cutler at QB24.
- August – Buy Matthew Stafford at QB15.
- August – Buy Alex Smith at QB25.
- August – Buy Ryan Tannehill at QB22.
- July – Sell Jameis Winston at QB14.
- June – Kendall Wright, Robert Woods, or someone on the Ravens could be this year’s Allen Hurns.
- June – Buy Breshad Perriman at WR60.
- June – Keenan Allen‘s projected 181 targets could lead the league.
- July – Buy Demaryius Thomas at WR16.
- July – Buy Victor Cruz at WR79.
- August – Buy Michael Floyd at WR27, Larry Fitzgerald at WR29, and John Brown at WR30.
- August – Buy Jordan Matthews at WR28.
- August – Buy Golden Tate at WR20, Marvin Jones at WR37, and Anquan Boldin at WR69.
- August – Buy T.Y. Hilton at WR15.
- August – Buy Jeremy Maclin at WR21.
- August – Buy Vincent Jackson at WR53.
- August – Buy Michael Crabtree at WR36.
- August – Buy Brandin Cooks at WR14.
- August – Sell DeAndre Hopkins at WR4.
- June – Buy Doug Baldwin at WR25, Jermaine Kearse at WR75, and sell Tyler Lockett at WR33.
- July – Buy Stevie Johnson at WR78, and sell Travis Benjamin at WR49. (*Retracted* – Johnson tore his meniscus and is on injured reserve. I’d hold my nose and draft Benjamin at WR49, even though he’s still half the size of a Little League World Series participant.)
- August – Buy Brandon LaFell WR76, Justin Hardy WR95, and sell Mohamed Sanu WR55, Tyler Boyd WR65. (*Retracted* – this one was more specifically that LaFell would finish ahead of Boyd, and Sanu ahead of Hardy, both of which appear wrong headed into the season.)
- August – Buy Steve Smith at WR58, Mike Wallace at WR67, and sell Kamar Aiken at WR46.
Mark Ingram was the only thing keeping me from having a perfect record on running backs last season, going by points-per-game.
How I did on offseason article calls. Really bad on QB buys, strongest on RB fades. Mark Ingram is so annoying: pic.twitter.com/vdXBQSUgUI
— 14TeamMocker (@14TeamMocker) January 8, 2016
Praying against all odds that kind of hit rate carries into this year, with my many calls on ball carriers:
- March – T.J. Yeldon outscores/outtouches Chris Ivory.
- March – Target Andre Ellington, C.J. Spiller, Darren Sproles, and Chris Thompson at the end of MFL10s.
- June – Chris Johnson, James Starks, or Devontae Booker could be this year’s DeAngelo Williams.
- June – Alfred Morris wasn’t registering an ADP, but fine with calling it RB70, with 69 running backs generating ADP data at the time.
- July – Buy Jonathan Stewart at RB29.
- July – Buy Ameer Abdullah at RB30, Melvin Gordon at RB32, and T.J. Yeldon at RB34.
- July – Buy Le’Veon Bell in the middle of the second round, somewhere near overall FLEX18.
- August – Buy Jeremy Hill at RB25.
- August – Buy Frank Gore at RB27.
- August – Buy Christine Michael at RB62.
- August – Buy LeSean McCoy at RB10.
- August – Buy Jamaal Charles at RB8.
- August – Buy C.J. Anderson at RB13.
- June – Karlos Williams, Jerick McKinnon, or Theo Riddick could be this year’s Knile Davis.
- August – Sell Ezekiel Elliot as an overall FLEX12 or RB3.
- June – Kyle Rudolph, Lance Kendricks, or Zach Miller could be this year’s Jordan Reed.
- August – Buy Julius Thomas at TE9.
- August – Buy Eric Ebron at TE14.
- August – Buy Vance McDonald at TE23.
- August – Buy Austin Seferian-Jenkins at TE20.
Please keep in mind these pieces were centered around the idea of buying or selling these players at or near what was their current market value at the time of being written. The emphasis was on exploiting the marketplace, and how it would react to impending events, more than specifically planting flags on or against these players.
- January – Charles Sims, Matt Jones, Martellus Bennett, Brian Quick, and Kenny Stills.
- February – Marvin Jones and Kendall Wright. (also Jaelen Strong)
- March – Isaiah Crowell and Ryan Mathews.
- April – Bilal Powell and Shane Vereen.
- January – Thomas Rawls, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Donte Moncrief, and Chris Ivory.
- February – Jordy Nelson and Mark Ingram.
- March – Martavis Bryant (post-suspension) and Dion Lewis.
- April – Giovani Bernard, Jerick McKinnon, Theo Riddick, and Danny Woodhead.