Monte Carlo Strategies to Win 2016 MFL10s – Part I
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Editor’s note: This is one of two Monte Carlo simulation articles aimed at solving the best-ball puzzle, each using different assumptions. We believe doing so gives a good idea of the range of possible outcomes. For the other article by Nick Giffen (@RotoDoc), click here.
We’re back!You MFL vets out there might remember the Monte Carlo article that your humble authors wrote a few years back. Some of you took our advice and increased your winnings by double digits. Kevin Cole wrote these very kind words about our Early-RB Strategy that we advocated for in our original 2014 article:
Around mid-way through my MFL10 drafting, I switched from a 4 RB allocation with one or two taken in the first five rounds, to much earlier RB drafting with three to four taken in the first 5 rounds. I finally “bought in” on the philosophy presented in the excellent Monte Carlo analysis by AJ Bessette and Greg Meade. The improvement in results was dramatic. Luckily, my switch in strategy coincided with a switch to MFL50s & 100s, which ended up turning my losses into a 25 percent gain.While we try not to strain our arms patting ourselves on the back, the reality is that the 2016 NFL year will be much different from the 2014 one. The Golden Age of Passing continues to overwhelm both real life and fantasy football, and past seasons are dropping further and further out of sample. Our original sample of 2011-2013 isn’t recent enough to use for decision making this year, so we dug into our Monte Carlo model to update our analysis. After figuring out what the hell we were doing in 2014 (comment your code people), we made a few improvements to develop a new pick order for 2016.