NASCAR

DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire Picks and Projections

This weekend NASCAR heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway to the 1.058-mile, flat oval. Sunday’s race is 301 laps, meaning it is important to find the likely race dominators. If you don’t get them on your roster, you’ll be behind the eight-ball in the DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire slate for cash games and will have zero chance at taking down a GPP.

As usual, I give give both my cash and GPP picks, along with my fades and machine learning model projections for this weekend’s contests.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the flat track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down a big GPP. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers and how to identify the race dominator.

DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire MODEL PROJECTIONS

The model projections I create assume that each driver finishes the race. As a result, these finishing position projections will operate under that assumption.

DriverStartFinLLFLDKPtsSalary
Kevin Harvick811.5746.7437.3859.2310700
Carl Edwards139.0626.8723.8457.5310100
Matt Kenseth1813.0428.4328.6857.379100
Joey Logano67.8124.4320.8650.919900
Kyle Busch211.7942.0531.1548.5210500
Martin Truex Jr.310.8438.0221.8045.739300
Jimmie Johnson19.4526.4221.6643.549700
Brad Keselowski913.2815.9018.9439.8810300
Kurt Busch49.8216.9214.4539.819000
Ryan Newman2516.340.491.8837.387700
Greg Biffle2818.550.101.3035.576600
Aric Almirola2617.800.051.5635.186500
Jamie McMurray1915.480.193.1533.667300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.2216.840.051.4133.056900
Denny Hamlin514.8918.5416.6232.169500
Paul Menard2418.230.140.6731.916700
Kyle Larson1716.460.524.5930.518500
Chase Elliott714.9410.0912.4929.888900
Trevor Bayne3122.920.080.9029.646400
Austin Dillon1516.030.182.0628.028300
Ryan Blaney1416.490.764.1327.287500
Kasey Kahne1116.282.225.9525.987900
AJ Allmendinger1015.520.833.8225.087100
Tony Stewart1216.210.282.5224.918100
Danica Patrick2924.440.031.1224.686300
Clint Bowyer3226.400.101.4423.947000
Regan Smith3427.860.031.0822.825300
Brian Scott3329.070.023.0720.405400
Chris Buescher3529.900.021.0019.715700
Josh Wise3932.020.021.0219.474600
Ryan Ellis4032.510.030.8219.39
Michael Annett3731.530.031.6018.754800
Reed Sorenson3631.290.021.1418.004500
Eddie MacDonald3832.640.040.7217.094900
Casey Mears2124.140.060.6417.056100
David Ragan2325.560.040.6916.245600
Michael McDowell2727.640.020.9816.225500
Landon Cassill3029.130.020.5216.015900
Alex Bowman2029.240.051.976.53
Matt DiBenedetto1629.070.151.372.585100

Kyle Busch ($10,500) – Kyle Busch won the July New Hampshire race last year, and he’ll look to do so again while starting from the second spot. This gives him a great chance to dominate a portion of the race, at one of his best tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit. Kyle has finished in the top two in four of his last six races at NHMS.

Matt Kenseth ($9100) – Of the expensive tier of drivers, Kenseth easily starts the deepest in the field, with a mediocre 18th place qualifying result. That gives Kenseth the highest likelihood of significant place differential among the expensive tier. Kenseth won the fall race at NHMS last year, and was quick in final practice, so he is a must start in cash games.

Greg Biffle ($6600) – Biffle starts in 28th but was 19th in final practice. That means we should see him put up some solid place differential numbers, which is really all you are looking for once you get past the expensive tier of drivers.

Ryan Newman ($7700) – Newman starts 25th making him a good cash game option. He doesn’t have massive upside, because his practice speeds haven’t been anywhere near the top 10, but he still ran the 16th best 10-lap average in Happy Hour, which would be good enough from a place differential standpoint to get it done for your cash game team.

DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire GPP PICKS

Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – Harvick starts eighth, but I still think he can lead a portion of this race. Harvick has led the most laps at NHMS in two of the last four races, and put up the quickest 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour. He could be this weekend’s top scorer if he makes it to the front.

Denny Hamlin ($9500) – Hamlin excels at these short, flat tracks and has actually shown some single lap speed this weekend. He’s lacking a bit in the long run speed department, but look for him to be near the front at a couple points during the day with an aggressive start and a top notch pit crew.

Jamie McMurray ($7300) – Jamie Mac starts 19th but put up the 12th best single lap speed in Happy Hour. McMurray is one of five drivers, along with Kenseth, Biffle, Brian Scott, and teammate Kyle Larson, to post practice speeds six spots or more better than their qualifying position in both post-qualifying practice sessions.

DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire FADES

Joey Logano ($9900) – Logano was nowhere near as quick relative to his competitors in practice as he was in qualifying. Logano practice six and 12 spots worse than his qualifying position in the post-qualifying practice sessions. At $9900, you cannot take on that risk.

Matt DiBenedetto ($5100) – I know it might be tempting to pick a driver this cheap that looks like he may be compeitive this weekend with a great qualifying effort. But DiBenedetto is a much better steep track driver than flat track driver, and his post-qualifying practice times shows that. He was in the 30s in both sessions. Stay away.

 

RotoDoc holds a Ph.D. in Mathematics and is a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings Main Event, The King of the Speedway. Additionally, RotoDoc has won multiple high paying NASCAR GPPs, including both the $100k and $75k tournaments for the 2016 Sprint Cup opener, The Sprint Unlimited.

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive