PGA

Review of Fantasy Golf Projections: British Open

It was a great week for my fantasy golf projections and player recommendations at the British Open Championship at Royal Troon.

This week, my projections as a whole dominated DraftKings pricing and Las Vegas odds. For the season as a whole, my projections continue to outperform both systems, shown below.

MyScore DKSalaryScore VegasLinesScore
British Open 64.93% 28.86% 26.88%
Season Average 55.03% 45.86% 44.78%

I use the same scoring system as Fantasy Pros. A score of 100 percent would mean that a system was correct on every close/non-obvious recommendation. This week my edge was +36.07 percent and +38.05 percent vs. DraftKings pricing and the Las Vegas lines, respectively. Over the ten weeks that I have been doing this publicly, my average edge has been +9.18 percent and +10.25 percent over both systems. This is better than the five percent or less house advantage that a typical casino game enjoys. My model won’t guarantee that you win every week, but it will help you gain an edge. The best rankers in the NFL typically score in the high 50s over the course of a season.

The performance of each player and their ranking across the various systems is shown in the table below.

PlayerNameMyRankDKRankVegasRankActualResultsBovadaOddsProjectedPts
Henrik Stenson598140300065.62
Phil Mickelson81411113400061.66
J.B. Holmes305864852500052.7
Rory McIlroy3338290069.67
Steve Stricker556448822000048.91
Andrew Johnston1146491804500037.76
Sergio Garcia136679250058.58
Haydn Porteous1381221217910000032.52
Patrick Reed22211773600054.61
Bubba Watson18191972660056.67
Dustin Johnson2217180070.44
Charl Schwartzel15231971660057.53
Soren Kjeldsen617143711750048.36
Andy Sullivan46342369800049.74
Tyrrell Hatton1175238691500037.58
Thomas Pieters976468682750041.05
Bill Haas445257672250050.1
Kevin Na405864672500050.39
Tony Finau547764662500049.02
Matthew Southgate152128115667500029.22
Zach Johnson20181765600055.06
Miguel Jimenez119102117638000036.89
Jason Day1116280070.55
Lee Westwood26151362500053.49
Martin Kaymer24161362500053.88
Brandt Snedeker25252862900053.5
Jordan Spieth44461100067.52
Gary Woodland297143611750053.19
Darren Clarke1531361216110000028.88
Justin Rose10101060350061.09
Russell Knox502731601000049.28
Ryan Palmer478668602750049.61
Matt Jones8695111607500043.17
Kevin Chappell364438591500051.58
Keegan Bradley706483593750046.56
Jason Dufner413748582000050.35
Thongchai Jaidee1063943581750040.15
Rafael Cabrera Bello274131571000053.39
Matt Kuchar7231956660062.13
Webb Simpson325248562000052.6
Emiliano Grillo566448562000048.87
Padraig Harrington1044431531000040.27
Justin Thomas482943521750049.43
Francesco Molinari313936521250052.64
Luke Donald834448522000044.24
David Howell9995111527500040.81
Nicolas Colsaerts573438501500048.76
Harris English527157502250049.13
Rickie Fowler117949330060.63
Richard Sterne13010278493250034.35
Adam Scott65548220062.55
Byeong-Hun An513457482250049.14
Ryan Moore647782483500047.87
Danny Willett14111647550057.77
Jim Herman911161214710000042.64
Jim Furyk17252346800056.68
Marc Leishman23312346800053.93
Alexander Noren694131461000046.67
Jon Rahm215248462000055.06
Scott Hend989586454000040.89
Kyung Tae Kim679595445000046.82
Graeme McDowell38292343800051.28
Zander Lombard8510995425000043.28
Kodai Ichihara1401161354215000032.19
Mark O'Meara1411281304112500031.72
Ryan Evans1421491304012500031.7
Yuta Ikeda144102120399000030.85
Daniel Summerhays8010991394500044.79
Paul Lawrie9577100386000041.47
Patton Kizzire71136114384000046.48
Branden Grace128637250059.66
Kevin Kisner424857372250050.34
Greg Chalmers12795115377500034.5
Marco Dawson1491491543725000030.52
Jamie Donaldson775274363000045.55
Soomin Lee120128117368000036.42
Anirban Lahiri685878343250046.81
Charley Hoffman397148342000050.44
Kiradech Aphibarnrat1027783343750040.63
Colin Montgomerie1368674343000032.8
Harold Varner659598335500047.3
James Hahn90109106337000042.79
Ernie Els923338321500042.02
Matteo Manassero1087748312000040.02
Shugo Imahira1391161483017500032.24
Scott Gregory1161091212910000037.6
David Lingmerth374838271500051.56
Louis Oosthuizen9121226450061.2
Nathan Holman1101361212610000038.99
William McGirt587768242750048.58
Justin Leonard1001421212410000040.81
Chris Kirk535268232750049.09
Paul Casey19212322800055.08
Victor Dubuisson795868222750045.02
Vijay Singh8186100226000044.6
Callum Shinkwin11813674223000037.44
Jimmy Walker283757212250053.26
Smylie Kaufman607786214000048.47
Nick Cullen1451221352115000030.72
Rod Pampling1151421212110000037.66
Thorbjorn Olesen724157202250046.23
Brandon Stone494878203250049.35
Russell Henley747764202500046.07
Robert Streb7686106207000045.81
Colt Knost7310286204000046.14
Marcus Fraser105109111207500040.23
Yusaku Miyazato1241161352015000034.74
Mark Calcavecchia1371221352015000032.57
Billy Horschel344448192000051.74
Robert Rock10186100196000040.72
Kristoffer Broberg121102104196500035.97
Jordan Niebrugge1031091211910000040.33
Stefano Mazzoli1461221351915000030.67
Todd Hamilton1481221501920000030.52
Anthony Wall94128106197000041.63
James Heath123128117198000035.66
Paul Howard1511491501920000029.94
Joost Luiten665857182250046.9
Tommy Fleetwood1077798185500040.1
Clement Sordet1311161301812500034.04
Ross Fisher826474173000044.54
Brendan Steele638678173250048.04
George Coetzee888686174000042.86
Richie Ramsay1098668172750039.21
Jamie Lovemark789586174000045.51
Phachara Khongwatmai1281281351715000034.49
Sang-hee Lee1351421351715000032.99
Shane Lowry35131316500051.64
Hideki Matsuyama16171916660056.79
Fabian Gomez96109100166000041.1
Yosuke Tsukada1561491351615000024.52
David Coupland1291361351515000034.38
Steven Alker1111491351515000038.6
Bernd Wiesberger595843141750048.51
Danny Lee627136141250048.24
Rikard Karlberg11371106147000037.9
Marc Warren848683143750043.7
Hideto Tanihara11212895145000038.41
Paul Dunne754891134500045.93
Jeunghun Wang936491134500042.01
Brian Gay1251021211310000034.72
Satoshi Kodaira1551161481317500028.23
John Daly1331491301312500033.87
Matthew Fitzpatrick33192812900052.23
Seung-yul Noh89102106127000042.86
Ben Curtis1501221351215000030.43
Scott Fernandez1261421351215000034.51
Jack Senior1321421501120000033.9
Scott Piercy453131101000049.83
Steven Bowditch1471421301012500030.55
Lasse Jensen122142135915000035.81
James Morrison8712810486500042.87
Oskar Arvidsson134136154625000033.83
Chris Wood4327284900050.23
Sandy Lyle154149154425000028.88
David Duval143149150320000031.35

I recommended stacking golfers with similar starting times to take advantage of differences in the weather. This proved to be a very effective strategy. The weather on Friday deteriorated as the day wore on. Golfers that teed off on Friday before noon averaged roughly 2.5 fewer strokes than those who teed off after noon.  Of the golfers who finished in the top 20 in DraftKings scoring, only five (Steve Stricker, Rory McIlroy, Haydn Porteous, Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson) had an afternoon tee time on Friday.

British Open CASH GAME RECOMMENDATIONS

Henrik Stenson ($9,500) – Stenson killed it this week. He won the tournament in dominant fashion and scored the most DraftKings points. His 140 points were 27 more than second place and 55 more than third.

Matt Kuchar ($7,800) – Kuchar made the cut as he almost always does. He performed a little below his lofty expectation, but overall did fine and scored 56 DraftKings points.

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,000) – Oosthuizen had a very disappointing performance. He ruined his chances of making the cut by shooting ten over par on the back nine on Friday. He did make a hole-in-one on Thursday which boosted his fantasy performance. He finished with 26 points.

British Open GPP RECOMMENDATIONS

Adam Scott ($10,600) – Scott did not continue his string of top ten finishes at the Open. He finished with 48 DraftKings points, not awful, but worse than I had hoped for given his salary.

Sergio Garcia ($10,000) – Garcia performed very well, 79 points tied for seventh most.

Jon Rahm ($6,600) – I recommended Rahm as a flier in tournaments. He made the cut and finished with 46 points, a reasonable performance for $6,600.

British Open SALARY RELIEF RECOMMENDATIONS

Danny Lee ($6,300) – Lee followed up his impressive top three finish at the Scottish Open with a miserable +13 and a missed cut at the British Open.

Ryan Palmer ($6,100) – Palmer provided an excellent return on his salary: 60 points, tied for 30th best.

Gary Woodland ($6,300) – Woodland also outperformed his salary by scoring 61 points.

Patton Kizzire ($5,400) – Kizzire made the cut and scored 38 points which is about all you can ask for from a golfer priced at $5,400.

I recommended fading J.B. Holmes and Bill Haas based on their terrible track records at links-style courses. Holmes had missed the last two cuts at the Open and just last week shot +10 to miss the cut at the Scottish Open. Haas had finished 50th or worse in five of his last six starts at the Open. There were so many other good options in their salary range that I didn’t think it was worth the risk to start them. They proved me wrong. My model liked them and projected them to score well. I should have trusted it.

Overall it was another solid week. The projections as a whole outperformed DraftKings pricing and Vegas Odds by the largest margin yet. My specific player recommendations as a whole performed well too. Look for my projections and player recommendations articles for the RBC Canadian Open on Tuesday and Wednesday.

By John Gambill | @GamblinJohnny | Archive