Draft Strategy

Mike Evans Needs a Perfect Storm to Return Value at His ADP

After finishing as WR26 in 2015 points per game, Mike Evans is currently being drafted as WR8. He’s going ahead of Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, and Brandon Marshall. Let’s look at why he shouldn’t be selected ahead of those players.

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By Mike Braude | @BraudeM | Archive

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  1. Worth mentioning that they could be run-heavy and still be waaaaaay less run-heavy than they were last season:

  2. bmoff says:

    MAYBE if their Pass Expectancy changes dramatically, and MAYBE if his % of targets hits the 30% mark, and MAYBE if their defense continues to be mediocre and they are in negative game scripts, and Koetter slams the pedal to the floor (doubtful)...

    Maybe in dynasty he is WR8 or so, but in redraft, there's no way. Not when you look at the data closely.

  3. I will say I don't really get drafting him ahead of Alshon. But the other two (Keenan Allen and Brandon Marshall) are perfectly defensible.

  4. bmoff says:

    I can see that happening, definitely, but is it more likely, IN 2016, that Evans makes that jump or for this season to be a bridge between the run oriented offense of last year and Winston-to-Evans super combo of the future? I don't see him being worse, obviously, but I can't imagine his ascendancy happens so quickly.

  5. bmoff says:

    I disagree, in that I think to get to that Top 5 level, he will have to do a majority of the lifting, not just changes in offense / schedule / planning. He only caught 50% of his throws last year, especially poor % in the red zone for a receiver of his caliber. And I think their schedule this year will be tougher than last year (they play the NFC West and AFC West this year, compared to AFC South and NFC East last year)

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