Assessing the Landing Spots For 2016’s Second and Third Round Rookie Receivers
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A large determinant of opportunity is draft position, but it isn’t the only factor. We must also dig into the opportunity available for targets and production at rookie landing spots. We all want our dynasty rookie picks to quickly appreciate in value, and the best way for that to happen is for a rookie to start out with strong production in their first year. After a fairly slow run of receivers taken to start the NFL draft, the second and third rounds included some selections to landing spots with immediate opportunity. One of the biggest determining factors of whether a player is productive is his opportunity, especially for picks beyond the first round. Would Allen Robinson have put up the same rookie numbers if Cecil Shorts and fellow 2014 selection Marqise Lee didn’t miss time with injury? Would the dynasty values of Jordan Matthews and John Brown have appreciated so quickly if they weren’t drafted into situations that could provide opportunity to a third receiving option? We updated out 2016 rookie wide receiver opportunity scores yesterday, and last week went through the landing spots for first-round receivers Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell. In essence, the opportunity scores are an attempt to identify which teams have quarterbacks much more highly rated than receivers (based on ADP), meaning a rookie could more easily surpass veterans on the roster. In this post, we’re going to assess the destinations for second and third round receivers Sterling Sherpard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Braxton Miller and Leonte Carroo. While you can’t really go wrong using a high dynasty pick on a first-round receiver, correctly gauging opportunity for later round receivers is critical for finding high-upside selections.