Updated Rookie Wide Receiver Opportunity Scores: Draft Night Edition
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We re-introduced the rookie wide receiver opportunity scores a few weeks ago, a concept developed last offseason to determine the best landing spots for the incoming class of rookies based on the relationship of pre-draft ADP between teams’ quarterbacks and receiver corps. Now that it’s NFL draft eve, let’s recalculate the scores based on the most current ADPs. In addition, we’ve adding a couple wrinkles to the formula to better forecast wide receiver opportunity and project teams without pre-draft quarterback ADPs. The first adjustment is to treat tight ends differently from wide receivers in the formula, which previously weighted all receiver ADPs equally. Often teams’ tight ends have either very poor ADPs or none at all, but that doesn’t mean the position won’t collectively accumulate stats throughout the season; it may just be that none individually will meet a draftable threshold. Dropping the effect of highly drafted tight ends in the formula moves teams with studs at the position like Cincinnati and Washington up the ranks, which more accurately reflects the opportunity available at the wide receiver position. Second, we added the lowest possible quarterback ADPs for the four teams without current ADPs at the position: the Rams, Broncos, 49ers and Browns. Now, every team is represented going into the draft. Let’s revisit the historical results of the relationship. What we’re looking to quantify is the distance of teams from the trend line, which should help us identify which teams have either undervalued receivers or an overvalued quarterback (below the line), or vice versa (above the line). Here are the most current results, which point not only to the most opportunistic landing spots for rookie wide receivers, but also give us an idea of who are the most undervalued veterans that drafters are unfairly ignoring.